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While the daily chart still presents as very bullish it's coming up to a long term support level which may turn into resistance. Big OPEC meeting Thursday so may see sideways movement til then.

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Also I think there is a lot to say for the 'contrarian' trade to what the  mass media news is saying. When all the news articles are saying 'BUY' or 'we're at the top' its probably worth looking at reducing your longs and selling.

When it comes to oil I have had the following emails today alone...

From IG - "Oil is leading commodity price gains finding a catalyst for the move from in fighting in Libya, which threatens to disrupt global oil supply."

From Reuters - "Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018, driven upwards by OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and strong U.S. jobs data."

From Bloomberg - "Crude is close to the highest level in five months this morning, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery trading at $63.45 by 5:40 a.m. Eastern Time as the escalation of fighting in Libya increases supply concerns. In other oil-market news today, there is huge interest in Saudi Aramco’s bond sale. Aramco Chairman and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Bloomberg TV this morning that $30 billion of orders have been received. The company is expected to offer at least $10 billion, with pricing as soon as tomorrow"

Blonde Money - "Thrives as oil producers sell futures to protect themselves from price falls and many like to speculate on the market. There is over and under supply and the level of stocks links the spot (immediate) oil price to the futures price. Backwardation is where futures prices are below spot and contango where they are above. Today, see chart below, OPEC cut production, demand is picking up and because of backwardation, suppliers run down inventory. Speculators need a high risk premium as ample stocks dampen price volatility and the reverse is true, low stocks amplify volatility. The curve says high prices will not last yet Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, needs $80 per barrel to balance its budget, a dilemma" 

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"OPEC and its partners are unlikely to decide on their output policy in April as it would be too early to get a clear picture of the impact of their supply cuts on the market by then, three OPEC sources said on Monday. The sources said the production policy by the so-called OPEC+ alliance is expected to be agreed on in June with an extension of the pact the likely scenario so far, but much depends on the extent of U.S. sanctions on both OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. “So far the likely decision is to extend the agreement in June. Nothing much is planned for April, just to discuss the OPEC and non-OPEC (cooperation pact),” one OPEC source ... (full story)

 

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Oil cruises up through the possible resistance level mentioned in the OP this morning with help from Trump who will now need to talk it down again 😂

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Books for Saudi Aramco's USD bond are reportedly now  over $85bln ! Wonder if that has any influence?

Capture CRUDE OIL.PNG

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9 minutes ago, elle said:

Books for Saudi Aramco's USD bond are reportedly now  over $85bln ! Wonder if that has any influence?

Capture CRUDE OIL.PNG

I did see that go through but I've no idea if it would impact on price or not.

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and so it pushes on.

another short term resistance level finding it hard to break.

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Yes, still looking for support, there was a report out this morning that OPEC may abandon quotas and just go all out for market share.

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"Further, markets continue to weigh in the weekend’s comments by the Russian Finance Minister Siluanov, citing that Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the United States but this would push oil prices as low as $40 per barrel."

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-drops-1-to-test-63-amid-mixed-signals-on-global-supply-201904151027?utm_source=tco&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=fxstreetnews

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46 minutes ago, elle said:

great interview in my opinion - posted here due to the discussion about US shale oil      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPjUCaueRLw

Ta, won't get through it all in one sitting but interesting stuff.  Laughed at the  " ... stocks move for a reason, when people don't want to believe what stocks are telling them they just ignore it" ... 

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26 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Ta, won't get through it all in one sitting but interesting stuff.  Laughed at the  " ... stocks move for a reason, when people don't want to believe what stocks are telling them they just ignore it" ... 

you may like the bit about TESLA then & what he compares it to

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thanks for the Real Vision video.

its almost annoying these sort of clips - you can't have it on in the back ground whilst you're working or doing other stuff. You really need to concentrate to get the value out of it.

Will have to set some time aside!

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19 minutes ago, elle said:

you may like the bit about TESLA then & what he compares it to

...  what, Tesla could be the next Blackberry, oh noooo  😧

     

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48 minutes ago, cryptotrader said:

thanks for the Real Vision video.

its almost annoying these sort of clips - you can't have it on in the back ground whilst you're working or doing other stuff. You really need to concentrate to get the value out of it.

Will have to set some time aside!

If you "liked that one"   here's another I thought was good   - it covers a lot of stuff   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrDMobbBeyg

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Oil hits 2019 high above $72 on China growth, lower U.S. inventories

  • OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions support oil prices
  • China's March refinery throughput up 3.2% year/year
  • China's Q1 GDP rises 6.4 percent year/year
  • U.S. crude stocks drop by 3.1 mln barrels last week - API

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Oil heading towards 70.00, has a liking for resting up at round numbers as has been pointed out before. Big recent boost from the US halting the Iran oil export waivers.

The Chinese are not happy and may well make waves as they import a lot from Iran, so may not be all plain sailing ahead.

Daily chart; 

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Big drop in oil down to support at 63.124, needs to hold here or a drop to 60.00 looks likely.

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Like that new chart view withthe smaller one in bottomright. Good insight. 

Trump at it again 😂

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I'd seen the IG mini chart app for mt4 before but not used it, it does give extra incite when quickly glancing through the large time frame charts.

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an analysis of recent action  FWIW ;)

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Just to update this chart. US Oil has recently put in a lower high and now a lower low but wait, does that automatically mean it has turned bearish? Would you automatically assume a reversal? What would be the most probable scenario from just looking at the chart structure?

The most probable next phase is always going to be consolidation, that's a statistical fact, on any chart. V reversals tend to be caused by a fundamental shift and are relatively rare. As we have seen from the SSI thread, trying to pick tops and bottoms is the number one strategy for retail clients, the same guys who are wrong 80% of the time.

So looking at just the chart structure where would you expect the bulls to be gathering to mount a serious challenge after their profit taking (and if the fundamentals were encouraging enough for them to even try)? NB; Oil likes round numbers.

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    • Hi everyone,  so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle.   Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon)  First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows.   What do you think of this approach?        
    • just to add to bigdeal's reply SBs can be either cash/daily funded bet or futures/forward which have a separate chart accessed from the dropdown box next to the chart title. for cash/dfb there is no expiry but you paid an overnight interest fee, this charge does not apply to futures/forwards which have a larger spread instead. see pic.
    • https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/10/17/emerging-market-stocks-just-break-out-of-a-20-month-downtrend
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