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US OIL

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Ah, lost this mornings post, US Oil gets a clean bounce up off 60 on the second attempt.

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Strong push down through 60 following a test of the recent high yesterday, now at 59.60 having found support at 59.27, RSI has dipped below 50 and the support level doesn't look too strong, may look lower.

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two equal channels. Big down move today, I'm not short ( I don't short oil ) but would like to see price fall to $55.00

Capture channels.PNG

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Yes a big move down sending RSI into oversold (doesn't mean buy) with support found at 57.16 and is back in a small consolidation range from early July, stronger support further down at 56 but may pause here before testing higher or lower.

H4 chart;

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US Oil tries to bounce up off 56.34 overnight, stronger support just below at 56.08. As gold traders Oil will be watching the indices closely for direction.

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On ‎16‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 21:31, elle said:

two equal channels. Big down move today, I'm not short ( I don't short oil ) but would like to see price fall to $55.00

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DONE !!!!!!

Capture 55.PNG

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Gets a bounce up off 55, now uncertain of direction, may pause here.

Daily chart;

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On ‎10‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 18:23, elle said:

 

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$55 was the target

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US Oil capped at resistance 56.47, key support below at 55, looks trapped waiting for the Indices to make a break.

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Still hanging around 56 looking due to test 57 again.

H4 chart;

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US Oil retested 57.43 and holding just below overnight. May try to break higher if US indices go up.

H4;

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US Oil retreated yesterday on news SA and one of the other ME countries were opening the taps, 56.10, support just below at 55.

Daily chart;

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Investing.com on a 25 BP cut today might affect US Oil and Brent.

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Looks to have found support around 57.63 and has recent high resistance at 58.82, currently paused around 57.80 to see which way the wind will blow.

H4 chart;

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Currently ranging between 52.76 and 57.62, US inventories on Wednesday at 3:30pm. Saudi may control supply but Washington and Beijing control demand.

Daily chart.

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Real possibility of the Oil markets gapping up on market open following the drone attack and fire at the Saudi processing facility Abqaiq, latest news that production cut by 5 million b/d, half of the Saudi daily output and 5% of worlds daily production (wsj).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-strikes-spark-fires-at-saudi-oil-facilities-11568443375?redirect=amp

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Ah yes, chaos in the Middle East.  The perfect antidote to falling oil prices :D

Seriously - the civilized world needs to become energy independent as a matter of urgency.  The sooner we no longer have to rely on Middle Eastern oil for our prosperity the better.  :(

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17 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Real possibility of the Oil markets gapping up on market open following the drone attack and fire at the Saudi processing facility Abqaiq, latest news that production cut by 5 million b/d, half of the Saudi daily output and 5% of worlds daily production (wsj).

CNBC here are talking a $10 rise due to the drone attack which would seem somewhat steep, interesting is that the weekend indices are down, presumably also as a result of the attack. Also being highlighted by other commentators at the moment is the Saudi infrastructures vulnerability to more attacks. And the company Aramco put out a statement not long after the attack that supply would be back to normal on Tuesday would seem overly optimistic.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/14/oil-could-rise-10-per-barrel-after-drone-attack-forces-saudi-to-cut-output.html?__source=twitter|main

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091519-factbox-crude-supply-under-threat-after-saudi-abqaiq-attack?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=plattsoil&utm_content=12f17453-6d95-4a10-95ca-852a8c4e3dcd&utm_campaign=oilnews

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@Caseynotes I think they said the supply would return to normal by Tuesday due to the massive stock piles of oil on reserve in other parts of KSA and other countries (they have locations in Europe, Egypt and Asia). So they expect that the supply of oil should be unaffected, but that all depends on how quickly they can get the plant back up running and how long the stock piles will last.

Certainly would expect fear to cause some level of jump on opening, I think the KSA ministry are scheduled to report on the status of the plant on Monday, so I would keep both eyes on that report as that would probably be the indicator of sustained increased of the price or a return to current prices.

 

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@Caseynotes

"Riyadh has built five giant underground storage facilities in various parts of the country that can hold tens of millions of barrels of various refined petroleum products, to be tapped during times of crisis."

The real play may be Natural Gas:

 

"Prince Abdulaziz said Saturday's explosions also halted supplies of some two billion cubic feet of associated gas -- which is extracted along with the crude.

"As a result, ethane and LNG supplies will shrink by 50 percent," said the minister, adding that domestic supplies of fuel, electricity and water had not been affected."

Ref: https://www.arabianbusiness.com/energy/428041-saudi-arabia-to-tap-oil-reserves-after-drone-strikes

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@gjhart my reading from the website is that it should kick off in about 30minutes. but haven't found any clear details on the start of the commodities week

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5 hours ago, AbDXB1345 said:

"As a result, ethane and LNG supplies will shrink by 50 percent," said the minister, adding that domestic supplies of fuel, electricity and water had not been affected."

The company have already started dialing back a date for return to normal production, some engineers on twitter are talking months ... providing there are no more drone strikes, but 'practice runs' on other targets have been reported several times over the last month or two. 

The indices are all ready looking at a gap down so a gap up for oil and gas seems likely.

@gjhart the indices and commodities markets don't open til 11pm Sunday UK time and put in a single 1 hour candle for the day, FX opens at 9pm Sunday.

 

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

The company have already started dialing back a date for return to normal production, some engineers on twitter are talking months ... providing there are no more drone strikes, but 'practice runs' on other targets have been reported several times over the last month or two. 

The indices are all ready looking at a gap down so a gap up for oil and gas seems likely.

@gjhart the indices and commodities markets don't open til 11pm Sunday UK time and put in a single 1 hour candle for the day, FX opens at 9pm Sunday.

 

thank you

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Hope everyone else had better luck with this trade, placed a LONG order on opening price at around 60USD, but the gap up opened me at 69.10, rised but not enough to hit my limit and then the market obviously recoiled and closed me out at 66.06 :(

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