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US OIL

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3 hours ago, AbDXB1345 said:

Hope everyone else had better luck with this trade, placed a LONG order on opening price at around 60USD, but the gap up opened me at 69.10, rised but not enough to hit my limit and then the market obviously recoiled and closed me out at 66.06 :(

yes the hazards of trying to second guess and front run the market, Brent put in a 1 minute candle of over $10, I think I read that a jump that size has not been seen for near 30 years.

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Outage length of time scenarios and their affect on price from Goldman Sacs;

 image.png.bf2e2aefc19d11302e099217884ecf17.png

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Look at how nicely U.S. oil bounces off the Fibs on a weekly chart.  It's a thing of beauty.

2019-09-16_23-35-25.thumb.jpg.50d7be59d10276a6a70ed10bacf06e66.jpg

Edited by dmedin
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For those that care, the Saudi energy minister is scheduled to hold a press conference later today to provide details on the plant. This will be the first formal statement.

Sources are reporting that the damage was worse than initial suspected, and the expectation is that half of the lost production will remain offline for weeks to months.

Using the guidance provided by Goldman and shared by @Caseynotes, we could potentially be seeing $70 - $75.

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Saudi press conference set for today 18:00 UK time, reports that Aramco are signalling to customers of delays to loading, also a report yesterday that Japan contractually has first dibs on storage stocks.

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08:38 (SA) Saudi Arabian oil output will return to normal levels sooner than initially believed, according to sources with knowledge of Saudi oil operations - press - Saudi source: Saudi Arabia is near to restoring 70% of 5.7M bpd oil output loss - CTNews.pro

H1 chart;

image.thumb.png.919aa5efd5d3bfc9d97f3ccb6fd491d1.png

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Oil is rising again on reports that Aramco have asked Iraq for 20mil barrels of crude and have asked China to accept delivery of a heavier grade than ordered.

Daily chart;

image.thumb.png.9cbabcc06c2ca9df03778b8f7ee083cf.png

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So oil is going up and down and up and down.

How does one actually trade it and make any money?

😕

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

So oil is going up and down and up and down.

How does one actually trade it and make any money?

😕

 it's useful to firstly have a clear idea of the direction of a market, secondly it's a case of finding a potential target, and then thirdly (last) you would look for a good entry point if one presents.

trade selection needs to be done in that order,

if unsure of direction look no further, 

if direction is clear is there an obvious target? (us oil for example has just been stopped at a prior high) if not, look no further,

if direction is clear and a target is obvious is there a good entry point - a pullback that's turned to continue the trend or a breakout.

it needs to be done in that order not the other way round, many new traders just jump in on a breakout or even worse just on FOMO, then realise there no real clear direction or target, which means price isn't actually going anywhere with purpose but is just meandering.

 

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Difficult to call, oil looks trapped in a consolidation range since 17th Sept, tried to break down today with the indices but recovered as the indices found support and headed back to the daily pivot after the US market open.

H4 chart;

image.thumb.png.ca0c7a1e302d09beb720bfc9b8d7a55c.png

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