Bull Market Bear Market

[Caseynotes]

How to decide hmm,  here's an interesting chart (1920s to present) with a neat interpretation (Bearish market phases in rectangles). So this Bull run has another 10 years to go? What say you?

 

[trade247]

whilst interesting, should you not measure top to bottom, rather than  waiting for an all time high to confirm another bull market. For example, can you not say that we've been in  bull market since 2009? We can't say we're not in a bull market from 2009 to 2014 surely?

it's a tough one. I think we're running on fumes personally. when it breaks liquidity will be thin and it'll plummet like a rock. theres so much central government manipulation this time around as well. If that goes then likely we'll see a hyper cycle pull back.

[Caseynotes]

Yes, I would consider measuring from the bottom more correct but then hey? the top chart (1920s on) does show a nice symmetry to it though. The 2 big recent bear dives never actually triggered the official bear market descriptive title.

Strong GDP and low inflation, with strong corporate earnings?, - still quite a long way from recessionary. 

[trade247]

True. Its a tough one. In my mind there have actually been a few 'triggers' which haven't come through in the market. Lots of opportunity to kick off the short but the market bulldozers on.

We're at a pretty low vol period at the moment. That's probably an indicator on the contrarian viewpoint that things are about to get interesting.

What event that will be (up / down / vol around a consolidation) who knows.

[Caseynotes]

3 interesting charts, US 10 year treasuries and treasury yield then yield on S&P comparing now to the two previous market highs. Not much happening in bonds especially since FOMC 6th Feb. 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting detailed analysis of the current market with proposals for the long, medium and short term outlook. Warning, lots and lots of graphs.

http://www.newtraderu.com/2019/04/28/why-the-stock-market-isnt-as-bullish-or-bearish-as-you-think/