Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Bull Market Bear Market

Recommended Posts

How to decide hmm,  here's an interesting chart (1920s to present) with a neat interpretation (Bearish market phases in rectangles). So this Bull run has another 10 years to go? What say you?

 

image.thumb.png.25f53d70b62ef1b5a21311976fc199a6.png

image.png

Share this post


Link to post

whilst interesting, should you not measure top to bottom, rather than  waiting for an all time high to confirm another bull market. For example, can you not say that we've been in  bull market since 2009? We can't say we're not in a bull market from 2009 to 2014 surely?

it's a tough one. I think we're running on fumes personally. when it breaks liquidity will be thin and it'll plummet like a rock. theres so much central government manipulation this time around as well. If that goes then likely we'll see a hyper cycle pull back.

Share this post


Link to post

Yes, I would consider measuring from the bottom more correct but then hey? the top chart (1920s on) does show a nice symmetry to it though. The 2 big recent bear dives never actually triggered the official bear market descriptive title.

Strong GDP and low inflation, with strong corporate earnings?, - still quite a long way from recessionary. 

Share this post


Link to post

True. Its a tough one. In my mind there have actually been a few 'triggers' which haven't come through in the market. Lots of opportunity to kick off the short but the market bulldozers on.

We're at a pretty low vol period at the moment. That's probably an indicator on the contrarian viewpoint that things are about to get interesting.

What event that will be (up / down / vol around a consolidation) who knows.

Share this post


Link to post

3 interesting charts, US 10 year treasuries and treasury yield then yield on S&P comparing now to the two previous market highs. Not much happening in bonds especially since FOMC 6th Feb. 

image.thumb.png.7fdbfea19f2184ae78a23c8fcd9e368f.png

image.png.211627224af2af648dd6af64e444aff7.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      6,566
    • Total Posts
      29,479
    • Total Members
      39,047
    Newest Member
    steven106
    Joined 22/04/19 07:34
  • Posts

    • @Bala198,  Kodiac is right, for it to appear in the top left corner it also needs to be activated by right-clicking on the chart and then click 'one click trading' but the option will only appear in the list if the market is open.  There is a better one called mini terminal in the IG mt4 app package download on which you can add stop loss, trailing stop and take profit all on the same bracket order. Once downloaded it is placed in the EA list section of navigator. 
    • AND 777 IS THE NUMBER OF ...  companies reporting earnings this coming week and some very big tech names amongst them. This is significant as the US indices are waiting at the boundary for either a push forward or a pull down and big tech have been the main drivers for some time now. Bear in mind also the US market opens tomorrow and that the following week also has a large number corporate earnings releases. See the calendar below.
    • Just 19 hours later from my previous post and Bitcoin is holding firm but the rest of the 'Alt Coins' are dropping in price considerably. Bitcoin mat well follow suit. Time and price action will tell us whether this happens or not. The rest of today and tomorrow should be very interesting. 
    • Looking at Lumber then it seems to me that it needs to hold the $30000 level. If it can defend and hold that then there could be further upside this year. If not then it could begin going down into the late $20000's. This is a personal assumption which now will need to be tested based on current price behaviour.  In my opinion, for any trend followers who are short, they must hold (even if they do not add to their positions on further price declines) until there is a clear trend reversal. This should execute their stop loss / trailing stop. In my opinion, for any trend followers who are waiting on the sidelines that do not want to short, then they must wait patiently until there is a clear trend reversal signalling / indicating a trend reversal to warrant a long trade initiation. 
    • One thing to remember is that Platinum is trading at a cheaper price than Gold. Gold and Silver have left Platinum behind since the rally started back in August of last year. It seems Platinum has had enough and wants to begin to assert some authority on the price action.  Platinum of course has several important industrial uses. I think Platinum will try and hit the $1000 dollar area as that is an important psychological price point and these rallies love nice round numbers as a target. This is seen time and time again in Commodities. Platinum is both an industrial metal and a precious metal.  Platinum is also known at the 'Rich Man's Gold'. This could lead to a reversal in pricing between Platinum and Gold. Platinum should be more expensive than Gold and so there could be a shift in speculative capital from Gold into Platinum. Platinum could attract extra volatility as Gold and Silver are more liquid markets.  I do not know what will happen in the future for Platinum prices but I shall follow the price action closely. Platinum will not follow any of my thoughts or assumptions as to what I think may happen. Platinum is not obliged to follow any of my trading strategies or plans. Platinum may not follow the path I have mapped out in my mind and nor does it have to. Platinum will do what it will do just like any other Commodity. As a trader the key is whether I can profit from the price action or not. Prices can change like the weather and so can traders views and opinions. I know from my experience that on many occasions the price action changes my views and opinions. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. If this did not happen due to stubbornness, ego or I know best attitude then it would be worth worrying about. 
  • Our picks

    • Could the price of pork increase by 78% in China by 2020? - EMEA Brief 18 Apr
      The African swine fever disease has reached Southeast Asia and parts of Europe, including the world’s biggest producer of Pork, China. A prediction from the Japanese bank Nomura, is that this could cause prices to rise by 78% in China by 2020, to 33 yuan per kilogram from 18.5 yuan

      Global PMIs come into focus today, with eurozone and US figures released in the wake of a poorer Japanese number this morning. Pinterest has priced its IPO at $19 per share, above the previously indicated range but still lower than in private funding rounds two years ago.
      • 1 reply
×
×