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Sell in May

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Posted (edited)

This year with the rally since christmas seems to be a sell in May year? 😋

Did some backtest on Italy 40 (for fun) daily timeframe

Best result for short only last 10 year month 5 to 7

 

Italy 40.png

Edited by Kodiak

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The code 

For long only change

SELLSHORT to BUY

EXITSHORT to SELL

BT Sell in May.png

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Something like this

 

DEFPARAM CumulateOrders=False

IF MONTH = 5 THEN
 
SELLSHORT 1 CONTRACT AT MARKET

ENDIF
 
IF MONTH = 7 THEN
 
EXITSHORT  AT MARKET
 
ENDIF

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Weekly candlevolume

"Low" volume so far (only Thursday) 

 

MIB-Weekly.png

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Interesting but it is Italy after all, they'd go on holiday even if there was a war on, what's the story for US and UK?

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On 09/05/2019 at 11:15, Caseynotes said:

Interesting but it is Italy after all, they'd go on holiday even if there was a war on, what's the story for US and UK?

Its not as "good" as Italy

It depends on the performance before May  

 

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Posted (edited)

DAX seems to be a "sell in June" 

Last 5 years are all winners (sell last May and close last june)

20 years only 65% winners

Remember this is only 1 month short in a bullmarket most of the time

 

DAX Sell in june.png

Edited by Kodiak
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Posted (edited)

Another picture of DAX 

and the Head & Shoulder on DOW (daily),( any trump tweets that can send this one down the neckline😏)

Dax sell in june2.png

Edited by Kodiak

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@Kodiak,

I think it depends on what assets you look at. One could argue that May has been an excellent month for Cryptocurrencies this year. Bonds have performed rather well too in May. 

I am not a big fan on any particular month and whether one should buy or sell in it. I think you just take each asset and the price action and decide whether to 'Short' or go 'Long. If there is any merit in this selling in May notion and people believe this then they would know what to do. Short those assets in May and profit, right?

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He's tariff-drunk, like a drunkard out of control ...

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