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USDCAD short drop before a mega rally?

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As mentions in my Brent Crude post just now, if USD does go through a period of weakness and Oil does rally then those 2 major drivers of USDCAD should result in significant CAD strength (i.e. USDCAD

USDCAD is an interesting one as it hold some similarities with DX, of which it is a part.  On the monthly chart there is a potential long term Flag formation with a set of parallel trend lines contain

My monthly chart resistance trend line appears to have held on NMD so far and now with Oil potentially breaking into  rally this pair could be about to move south big time.

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USDCAD at the top of the LT channel.  Breakout or hold?

Pressure on USD today it seems with USDJPY down and GBP and EUR holding at key support.  I wouldn't put it past CAD to reverse here for at least another round trip to the bottom of the channel.  NMD on 4H and 1H and 1-5 on the rally (FWIW).


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Second test of my long term resistance trend line at the top of a Triangle consolidation has failed.  Given Oil has rallied off support (still a possible final leg down but it was a decent time to chance a Long, which I did) this may be a good point to consider Short USDCAD.


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