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Bitcoin halving event


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  • JamesIG changed the title to Bitcoin halving event

I saw this on twitter from Cred this morning, he's clearly getting grief from some of his 120,000 followers who want to pick the top and fade the move. As I've highlighted in the SSI thread, youse are looking at it upside down.

Cred @CryptoCred

"As is typical: people are still looking to short immediately after resistance has been blitzed. Traders are upset that they missed the fast move & they’ll find any reason to fade it. That’s how you sell the dip. Your spot BTC doubled in weeks — what’s the rush to trade?"

We want to buy dips not sell them is the point Cred is trying to make. But how?

I opened the demo to have a look. Pullbacks are natural, they are profit taking, they are a chance to refill the order book, they are counter trenders 'having a go'. We are looking for something to support price and stop the counter move, something that market movers are using to re-enter or add to longs.

So adding to the chart (2) what did we find? Pivots - no, Fib - no, MA - well which one? Old support - not really. 

Sometimes there just isn't anything obvious but there is always price action which we would use as confirmation any way.

The first M15 chart is spotting that pin bar, that's the strongest buying power candle since the top and that's the give away, size is moving in to buy, follow it.

So the entry was as price moved up past the pin bar, with the thumping 38 point spread the entry shows up in the green dot dash line and the stop the red dot dash below the pin. The pin is the reason for entry, if it gets taken out the trade is therefore invalidated.

In the second chart I've added Stoch 10,3,1. I tend to use this for entries as I like to see room for a whole leg ahead before re-entering obos.

What will happen next I don't know but I would expect some resistance at R3 and then at the recent high if it gets there.

BTC1.thumb.PNG.0c69aee9c0294c4c1638bd0aff5a7c3a.PNG

image.thumb.png.3d52dd08798dd19c8afa1713d936c964.png

 

 

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So just to check up on that demo BTC trade which started out as a demonstration of what I would be looking for in a entry to get aboard a move has evolved in to trade management. 

Onto the chart and price has leaped forward over night again to a new high at 7428 followed by a big pullback and now retesting that high. The stop was moved up to 6850 last evening and up to below the recent low structure 7241 this morning.

Our micro lot trade 10p/point started with an initial risk (stop loss 10 plus spread 3.8) of £13.80.

Currently plus £70 with a fairly safe stop (🙄 er, it is btc) at plus £48.

For other possible entry points look at the Stochastic indicator and match to price action. The trend is up so only looking for longs, we want a deep pullback to around oversold to give us the chance of a long leg up, and also a matching candle pattern to signal the long entry. After my entry (circle) there have been 3/4 opportunities on this M15 chart. Once in the trade we then want Stochastic to climb up into over bought and remain there forever 🙂

 image.thumb.png.7d97c23baaf880dcacf1243b9089a6ac.png 

 

 

 

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So the final calc for the demo trade opened on Saturday morning was a profit of 3.5 R, that is a reward of 3.5 Xs the risk which is of course a very healthy return and all down to keeping an eye on chart structure and taking advantage as opportunity presents itself and avoiding the temptation to try to pick tops and fading big moves. If you look back through the thread that was the whole reason to start the demo.

Good to see BTC moving again, in the second half of 2017 I use to give intraday running commentaries on the forum on BTC PA, exciting times, especially the panic when price was plunging 30%, you could smell the blood in the water 😅

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Definitely pivots, trendlines are great fun because you get to redraw them everyday ☹️, I stopped using manually drawn lines long ago because you can see anyway but recently found an auto line maker so am trialing, it seems useful for spotting underside retests after breakout and spotting channels as well as early trendline formation.  Fibs I used a lot when posting on the run up in 2017 but over the long run, given a choice between looking at 5 Fib levels or pivots combined with support and resistance levels (which often confirm each other) I far prefer the latter, S&R levels are where traders stepped and may do so again or even have unfilled orders left resting. I wouldn't even consider trying to use everything all at once 🙂 

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The 7am hourly candle failed to take the pivot so price went back down to check S1 and nearly got as far as S2, the bulls are currently trying to overwhelm the sellers who have gathered at  S1 to defend their short positions.

H1 chart;  

image.thumb.png.a20e69d3240e0ac211cfd06d68a7cebd.png

And look to be doing a good job;

image.thumb.png.b7f5d38aaa4e8a553f49c085ee06bb15.png

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