Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Bitcoin halving event

Recommended Posts

This is an interesting log scale (2 weekly) chart published end of Jan 19 on bitcoin price in relation to halving dates. Current 1 week chart below that.

image.thumb.png.e28e23907a207f0080f3d0bc7dd1255d.png

image.thumb.png.c9a7187bc190f8bdc7bc0f4117465636.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Some other interesting charts and a link which really sums it all up.... The question is: will this actually happen? Whats the risk reward ratio of it happening? Place your bets all...

Bitcoin halving

1904431989_2019-05-0710_54_17-impactofbitcoinhalvingeventonprice-GoogleSearch.png.a61bf6aa24b9e7eaa690645b053df48c.png965911440_2019-05-0710_53_51-impactofbitcoinhalvingeventonprice-GoogleSearch.png.fb4bf7b510b6c27eed84752a8b24f639.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin rise continuing and now back into an area of consolidation from late 2018, might be time for a breather though volume currently remains relatively good.

Daily chart;

image.thumb.png.fd067c668bbc3eef62250b6891c90d86.png

Share this post


Link to post

H1 chart update and Bitcoin continues up and away, now past R2 with a retest. Spent some time today looking back at the pivot history and BTC does seem to take notice and react.

image.thumb.png.e65d49c4c893a7bd362feb61c65b559a.png

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin gaps up this morning and continues to push higher. After a big 7am H1 thrust came back to retest R4 before turning up again. 

image.thumb.png.887e8f0a3090aa294063f2dde7e61d66.png

Share this post


Link to post

I saw this on twitter from Cred this morning, he's clearly getting grief from some of his 120,000 followers who want to pick the top and fade the move. As I've highlighted in the SSI thread, youse are looking at it upside down.

Cred @CryptoCred

"As is typical: people are still looking to short immediately after resistance has been blitzed. Traders are upset that they missed the fast move & they’ll find any reason to fade it. That’s how you sell the dip. Your spot BTC doubled in weeks — what’s the rush to trade?"

We want to buy dips not sell them is the point Cred is trying to make. But how?

I opened the demo to have a look. Pullbacks are natural, they are profit taking, they are a chance to refill the order book, they are counter trenders 'having a go'. We are looking for something to support price and stop the counter move, something that market movers are using to re-enter or add to longs.

So adding to the chart (2) what did we find? Pivots - no, Fib - no, MA - well which one? Old support - not really. 

Sometimes there just isn't anything obvious but there is always price action which we would use as confirmation any way.

The first M15 chart is spotting that pin bar, that's the strongest buying power candle since the top and that's the give away, size is moving in to buy, follow it.

So the entry was as price moved up past the pin bar, with the thumping 38 point spread the entry shows up in the green dot dash line and the stop the red dot dash below the pin. The pin is the reason for entry, if it gets taken out the trade is therefore invalidated.

In the second chart I've added Stoch 10,3,1. I tend to use this for entries as I like to see room for a whole leg ahead before re-entering obos.

What will happen next I don't know but I would expect some resistance at R3 and then at the recent high if it gets there.

BTC1.thumb.PNG.0c69aee9c0294c4c1638bd0aff5a7c3a.PNG

image.thumb.png.3d52dd08798dd19c8afa1713d936c964.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

If any proof was needed that big BTC traders use Pivots ...;

image.thumb.png.d3317c070466993701fa14ccc65d9b39.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

BTC currently trying to push though the recent high 6951, the next target above is the prior high from October 15 at 7169.

image.thumb.png.b566548405ae97b5f1e373918ad534d6.png

Share this post


Link to post

So just waiting for price to continue on through the recent high at 7000 so we can move our stop up to 6850, just below the recent structure low.

image.thumb.png.dd3cb37b936c622f051b19027ce250f6.png

Share this post


Link to post

So just to check up on that demo BTC trade which started out as a demonstration of what I would be looking for in a entry to get aboard a move has evolved in to trade management. 

Onto the chart and price has leaped forward over night again to a new high at 7428 followed by a big pullback and now retesting that high. The stop was moved up to 6850 last evening and up to below the recent low structure 7241 this morning.

Our micro lot trade 10p/point started with an initial risk (stop loss 10 plus spread 3.8) of £13.80.

Currently plus £70 with a fairly safe stop (🙄 er, it is btc) at plus £48.

For other possible entry points look at the Stochastic indicator and match to price action. The trend is up so only looking for longs, we want a deep pullback to around oversold to give us the chance of a long leg up, and also a matching candle pattern to signal the long entry. After my entry (circle) there have been 3/4 opportunities on this M15 chart. Once in the trade we then want Stochastic to climb up into over bought and remain there forever 🙂

 image.thumb.png.7d97c23baaf880dcacf1243b9089a6ac.png 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Opps,  sudden thrust down takes out the stop. Something of a long squeeze there, strong push up through resistance to get short stops and the breakout longs triggered and then a hard push down.

image.thumb.png.1715dfeafffd94027027b65039e83e1c.png

Share this post


Link to post

Just looking at the H1 chart and this latest run looks to be in trouble with the bears trying for their 4th straight red candle and a second attempt to break below 7181 after a double failure on the high of 7561. 

image.thumb.png.fcaa75f5efe008eaf3c0d736e1208c4d.png

Share this post


Link to post

So the final calc for the demo trade opened on Saturday morning was a profit of 3.5 R, that is a reward of 3.5 Xs the risk which is of course a very healthy return and all down to keeping an eye on chart structure and taking advantage as opportunity presents itself and avoiding the temptation to try to pick tops and fading big moves. If you look back through the thread that was the whole reason to start the demo.

Good to see BTC moving again, in the second half of 2017 I use to give intraday running commentaries on the forum on BTC PA, exciting times, especially the panic when price was plunging 30%, you could smell the blood in the water 😅

Share this post


Link to post

looking forward to what crypto brings over the next 18 months.

potential for some parabolic moves.

Share this post


Link to post

LOL, I know, on that demo trade I did over the weekend price shot up from entry over 800 points before shooting back down to entry in the space of 24 hr 🤣, managed to capture 480.

Share this post


Link to post

BTC setting up for a run on the high after testing support overnight.

H1 chart;

image.thumb.png.c782242c019d2f293e20c093c33f2901.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

BTC pushes on through the recent high and heading for R1 at  8347.

image.thumb.png.a12e7d51b9fd4158a8536664fdbe57ce.png

Share this post


Link to post

After the run up to R1 BTC retreated back down to 7897 and looks to have retested that level before possibly taking another look at R1.

image.thumb.png.3710954eb065dee75cefbda1464f3681.png

Share this post


Link to post

BTC resting on the daily pivot and looking towards another run up to retest 8317 having completed a retest of support at 7606.

image.thumb.png.2b93d596527fe49dc612c1b6a3cf7280.png

Share this post


Link to post

BTC trying to launch again to 8163 having spent most of the day about the pivot, currently at 8100, R1 at 8163.

image.thumb.png.39b5bf099f84cc4b104351da6644dc04.png

Share this post


Link to post

BTC double topped early this morning at around 8368 and has fallen hard down to support at 7850, currently trying to get back above 8000.

 image.thumb.png.8279491fc840ed1e1602ede2d0273137.png

Share this post


Link to post

So you’re a friend of Pivots and Trend lines on this one? Any thoughts on the fib and BTC traders trading within them? Could be an interesting bitcoin halving event if everyone is trading on this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. 

Share this post


Link to post

Definitely pivots, trendlines are great fun because you get to redraw them everyday ☹️, I stopped using manually drawn lines long ago because you can see anyway but recently found an auto line maker so am trialing, it seems useful for spotting underside retests after breakout and spotting channels as well as early trendline formation.  Fibs I used a lot when posting on the run up in 2017 but over the long run, given a choice between looking at 5 Fib levels or pivots combined with support and resistance levels (which often confirm each other) I far prefer the latter, S&R levels are where traders stepped and may do so again or even have unfilled orders left resting. I wouldn't even consider trying to use everything all at once 🙂 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

The 7am hourly candle failed to take the pivot so price went back down to check S1 and nearly got as far as S2, the bulls are currently trying to overwhelm the sellers who have gathered at  S1 to defend their short positions.

H1 chart;  

image.thumb.png.a20e69d3240e0ac211cfd06d68a7cebd.png

And look to be doing a good job;

image.thumb.png.b7f5d38aaa4e8a553f49c085ee06bb15.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

BTC looks like it's putting a big red daily candle which may cause a pause in this run;

image.thumb.png.39aecc1fb4f7d725d8bb15ac5d255d66.png

Share this post


Link to post

BTC rupture last few hours, down to 6523 now back up to 7200.

H1 chart;

image.thumb.png.b5f2772fe44088bec573f21a1f09a78d.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,237
    • Total Posts
      35,866
    • Total Members
      45,865
    Newest Member
    fefcoweb
    Joined 18/08/19 18:33
  • Posts

    • @Mercury, I see you have started to look at Coffee. Excellent. If you look at both Arabica and London (Robusta) then one could argue that we are witnessing oversold conditions especially if you look at longer term timeframes like the 'Monthly' and potentially the 'Weekly'.  For me it is about identifying potential breakouts. We may see that in the days and weeks to come but right now at this moment in time both on the 'daily' are trading below 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's so it is still bearish for me. It is one I am monitoring closely.  Commodities can offer some excellent trading opportunities and produce some of the strongest trends. I do not use or apply EWT but if you can use it to effectively increase your chances of success which leads to a greater chance of profiting then all the best. 👍
    • I was watching a TV series called "This Giant Beast That is the Global Economy " starring and narrated by Kal Penn, actor in "House" and speech writer with Obama.  It doesn't really cover any new concepts, although there were a few interesting observation in their, like what the most important commodity in the global economy is... (I wont spoil it for anyone who hasn't seen it yet and wants to but it was not that obvious and is blindingly obvious in retrospect). One thing that did pop out that I though was relevant for the forum was that the price of coffee is way too low for farmers to make money.  The logical conclusion of this is that they will farm something else and supply will be curtailed and then prices will go up, the basic perpetual cycle of supply and demand change.  This very basic fundamentals proposition motivated me to look at coffee on the charts to see if there was a building opportunity and I think there may be.  I will preface my analytical assessment with the statement that I know very little about the coffee industry other than how to select a great bean type as a consumer and make a great flat white. If I look at the long term charts (Quarterly/Monthly) I see that coffee trades in a large range from about 4000 to 34000 at the extremes (or $0.40 - $3.40 per US pound if you prefer).  This seems to represent the classic economics supply and demand curve in candle pricing form.  With the available data we can see a set of cycles between the market top and bottom zones that in the main run fairly directly between the zones.  At this point my thesis would be that if you catch the market right at either extreme you can hold until price reaches the opposite end of the range (net 30,000 points or so).  For best results you want a straight run rather than one with large reversals. If I apply EWT to the chart I see a series of 1-5s and A-B-C, although this is arguably less relevant than for markets that do not operate between such obvious ranges as the key is obviously to look at trading when the market enters, or more correctly, then exits the range extremes zones.  Still it is interesting to see that the run up in the mid 70s was a motive 1-5 that still marks the high point in price.  After that I see a series of massive A-B-Cs culminating in a slightly lower high extreme price in the late 1990s than that printed in the 70s (still went into the market top zone though). This high then produced a 1-5 down to the lowers price on the chart around 2002.  The next move up to 2011 could be either an A-B-C or a 1-5 and the current move looks decidedly like an A-B-C.  If the 2011 move is an A-B-C and the current move is also an A-B-C then I would expect the current move to be a larger wave B that ends higher than the previous low and spawns a massive rally that ends higher than the previous high and is a 1-5 that goes pretty much straight up.  Either way the current move is and A-B-C so will end higher than the previous low and as most of the bear moves end inside the market bottom zone I can reasonable conclude that this move will end somewhere between 4200 - 8000. Let's look at a shorter term charts to see if we can refine this.  I have 2 weekly charts attached, the first of which shows the bearish move down from 2011 and the second of which zooms in on the final wave C of C.  In the first chart I can see a clear A-B-C structure to all 3 of the larger A-B-C wave form of the bearish move.  This confirms an A-B-C and not a 1-5 and also confirms that the market is in a final wave C of C, which will spawn that Bull market.  I also have a nice upper resistance trend line and 2 possible lower lines (both may be valid) with a lot of good current (green circle) and prior pivot (purple circle) touches. If we look at the second weekly chart the wave C of the larger wave C (from the wave B pink) is cutting a clean 1-5 pattern and looks to have just completed the 3-4 part of this.  The rally to wave 4 (blue) is in a-b-c, which you would expect of a retrace so the next bearish phase should be a final wave 5 that will mark the end of the overall bear market.  I would be looking for price to hit one of the lower channel lines but inside or on the 8000 level ideally.  Note all previous moves that did not make it to the extremes zone were not wave Cs (As or Bs) and all the 5 did.  So the conclusion to this is that all wave Cs or motives 1-5s penetrate the extremes zones of the range but As and Bs tend not to.  Also 1-5 waves tend to run hard and fast and make more extreme price tops.  The current move looks line a Wave C that would spawn a 1-5. Finally looking at the daily chart the current bearish phase looks to have put in a 1-2 (green) of that final 1-5 I am looking for.  I will be tracking this for the 3-4-5 and other signals to see if I can spot the turn.  As and when price breaks out of the upper weekly trend line resistance I think a strong bull market will be in play that could be a motive 1-5 that makes it into the extreme market top zone.  In all of the bull turns through there has been a strong short term retrace so the best strategy might be to let the turn happen and spot the initial retrace turn.  In these agri type commodities getting in on such a range extremes turn has to be the way to play it.  I will be tracking this one with interest for a while but it will require some time still to mature I think. 
    • I last posts around 2-3 weeks ago on this thread and I have seen Litecoin go down towards the lower $70's. It is currently trading at $76-77 at the time of writing this post.  Litecoin's chart looks pretty ugly. It is currently trading below its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's which is very bearish.  Only really Bitcoin (significantly) and Bitcoin Cash are trading above their 200 DMA's on the 'daily.  Litecoin will need some very bullish news or a big move from Altcoins / Bitcoin otherwise it could easily fall down into the 60's.  After the halving event, it seems, Litecoin has been heavily sold. This capital may now shift to Bitcoin. That is my suspicion and assumption and the price action will confirm this. I will be interested to see if the divergence between Bitcoin and Litecoin increases. 
×
×