Jump to content

Bitcoin halving event

Recommended Posts

  • JamesIG changed the title to Bitcoin halving event

I saw this on twitter from Cred this morning, he's clearly getting grief from some of his 120,000 followers who want to pick the top and fade the move. As I've highlighted in the SSI thread, youse are looking at it upside down.

Cred @CryptoCred

"As is typical: people are still looking to short immediately after resistance has been blitzed. Traders are upset that they missed the fast move & they’ll find any reason to fade it. That’s how you sell the dip. Your spot BTC doubled in weeks — what’s the rush to trade?"

We want to buy dips not sell them is the point Cred is trying to make. But how?

I opened the demo to have a look. Pullbacks are natural, they are profit taking, they are a chance to refill the order book, they are counter trenders 'having a go'. We are looking for something to support price and stop the counter move, something that market movers are using to re-enter or add to longs.

So adding to the chart (2) what did we find? Pivots - no, Fib - no, MA - well which one? Old support - not really. 

Sometimes there just isn't anything obvious but there is always price action which we would use as confirmation any way.

The first M15 chart is spotting that pin bar, that's the strongest buying power candle since the top and that's the give away, size is moving in to buy, follow it.

So the entry was as price moved up past the pin bar, with the thumping 38 point spread the entry shows up in the green dot dash line and the stop the red dot dash below the pin. The pin is the reason for entry, if it gets taken out the trade is therefore invalidated.

In the second chart I've added Stoch 10,3,1. I tend to use this for entries as I like to see room for a whole leg ahead before re-entering obos.

What will happen next I don't know but I would expect some resistance at R3 and then at the recent high if it gets there.





Link to comment

So just to check up on that demo BTC trade which started out as a demonstration of what I would be looking for in a entry to get aboard a move has evolved in to trade management. 

Onto the chart and price has leaped forward over night again to a new high at 7428 followed by a big pullback and now retesting that high. The stop was moved up to 6850 last evening and up to below the recent low structure 7241 this morning.

Our micro lot trade 10p/point started with an initial risk (stop loss 10 plus spread 3.8) of £13.80.

Currently plus £70 with a fairly safe stop (🙄 er, it is btc) at plus £48.

For other possible entry points look at the Stochastic indicator and match to price action. The trend is up so only looking for longs, we want a deep pullback to around oversold to give us the chance of a long leg up, and also a matching candle pattern to signal the long entry. After my entry (circle) there have been 3/4 opportunities on this M15 chart. Once in the trade we then want Stochastic to climb up into over bought and remain there forever 🙂





Link to comment

So the final calc for the demo trade opened on Saturday morning was a profit of 3.5 R, that is a reward of 3.5 Xs the risk which is of course a very healthy return and all down to keeping an eye on chart structure and taking advantage as opportunity presents itself and avoiding the temptation to try to pick tops and fading big moves. If you look back through the thread that was the whole reason to start the demo.

Good to see BTC moving again, in the second half of 2017 I use to give intraday running commentaries on the forum on BTC PA, exciting times, especially the panic when price was plunging 30%, you could smell the blood in the water 😅

Link to comment

Definitely pivots, trendlines are great fun because you get to redraw them everyday ☹️, I stopped using manually drawn lines long ago because you can see anyway but recently found an auto line maker so am trialing, it seems useful for spotting underside retests after breakout and spotting channels as well as early trendline formation.  Fibs I used a lot when posting on the run up in 2017 but over the long run, given a choice between looking at 5 Fib levels or pivots combined with support and resistance levels (which often confirm each other) I far prefer the latter, S&R levels are where traders stepped and may do so again or even have unfilled orders left resting. I wouldn't even consider trying to use everything all at once 🙂 

  • Like 1
Link to comment

The 7am hourly candle failed to take the pivot so price went back down to check S1 and nearly got as far as S2, the bulls are currently trying to overwhelm the sellers who have gathered at  S1 to defend their short positions.

H1 chart;  


And look to be doing a good job;


  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 24/09/22 16:18
  • Posts

    • Hey @pravid17 I hope you're well.  In the leveraged trading industry there are brokers who don't hedge client's exposure and brokers (like ourselves) who do hedge client's exposure.  In a perfect world the exposure of short clients would net off the trades of long clients however this is not always the case. Our hedging model allows us to take an exposure in the underlying market for the remaining exposure which doesn't offset - This way we don't need to hedge every trade, worry about profits of our clients and results in lower costs for hedging in the underlying market (commissions, interest etc.). So say 60% of IG customer exposure in the ASX was long and 40% of exposure on the ASX was short. The 40% would net each other off but there's a remaining 20% of customers who need to be hedged to cover their positions. We go into the market and hedge this.  We make our money primarily through our spreads and overnight funding  with other fees making up a small proportion of our revenue. I would like to remind also that IG is regulated by several bodies globally, including top-tier regulators like the UK's FCA, Germany's BaFIN, Australia's ASIC - This should be quite reassuring from a dealing execution and transparency perspective.  I hope this helps, let me know if you have any other question 
    • A survey from Reviews.org, which featured 1000 Americans, found that as many as 1 in 4 US subscribers may quit the service in the next year.    Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 23 September 2022  There was an interesting breakdown, but the main reason was affordability. Only 18% said they would move to a cheaper competitor. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the numbers. Netflix subscription woes Netflix Inc (All Sessions) could be in for a rough time ahead over the next 12 months if a new survey is anything to go by, which was conducted in the US. Out of the 1,000 adults that took part in this survey undertaken by Reviews.org, around 25% of those that were covered said that they would be cancelling their Netflix subscription within the next 12 months. Now, it says with that 25% of US subscribers to Netflix considering leaving, not to join a competitor, but mostly because of pressures on household bills. This is how it is split: rising cost of subscriptions - 40% inflation - 20% a lack of content - 22% spending more time on the services of others - 18% So you can see, a minority said they were going to other services, such as those provided by Disney Plus or Amazon Prime. The cost of Netflix has risen dramatically this year as its basic plan increased by 11% in January and its other plans by 20% to 25%. Now these were the first price increases for three years, so that itself is relatively new for a lot of subscribers. Netflix share price Let's take a look at the Netflix share price. You can see on the far left hand side of this chart the COVID lows at $290.39. We saw a whacking great increase there of 141% to the top and the record high in Netflix shares back in November 2021. And that was when subscriptions were rising, people were paying more for their services, and it was all humming beautifully. And then all of a sudden people started questioning the numbers of streaming services they were undertaking with some deciding to withdraw from Netflix. All of a sudden the big drops started coming through with profit warnings and sales warnings. We've recently hit a new low of $162.50. Since then there has been a little bit of an increase. We're currently trading at $232.75, but we are down by a margin of 1.75% in today's session, which reflects this news that we could well see a relatively large drop in subscribers for Netflix in the US within the next 12 months.
    • Market data to trade the week of 26 September: Nasdaq; NXT From the economic calendar next week IG technical analyst, Axel Rudolph, picks up on a short trade on the Nasdaq around US inflation data. Meanwhile, despite another light week of corporate data, Axel picks out the chart of Next plc (NXT) as an interesting trade to think about.          
  • Create New...