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And back down it goes ...

Maybe this is an example of what is called 'priming the pump' (putting money back in to the market, in order to short it back out again.)

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I want to see that potential bottom at around 412 tested at least once more, to see 'how sound the bottom really is'.  Ooh!  Everybody loves a good sound firm bottom :P   And if it turn out to be so, then maybe we can go long - 'buy and hold' - since IG won't let people buy cannabis shares.

2109330072_CannabisIndex_20191204_18_27.thumb.png.fbe5e2f3df4d2efb71007f2eb021c13c.png

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Maybe it's on the turn.  A close above 50 SMA would be good.  No 'catalysts' though.  No 'compelling story' or 'castle in the air'.

658477775_CannabisIndex_20191213_15_33.thumb.png.6e5842e22cca07e1ebd64f88f2bd4c53.png

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Well, since you asked I'll tell you what I think.

Before I even consider going long on this again I want to see a higher high (break above 516).  I'll probably then want to see a lower low and then a break above the 50 SMA, with the slope of the 50 SMA turning upwards.  Considering how disastrously bad this index has performed over the last year, even then it won't be for certain.

CANNABIS-Daily.thumb.png.fd7da76f58b8c252fed29103925b72a7.png

Edited by dmedin

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Looking for 412 to hold as a bottom, otherwise, good lord - can this really fall another couple hundred points or more?

cannabis.thumb.png.3d737200db7197aff31a28ec5c7747d2.png

 

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Looks like it's about to take another big dump.  Once it's broken below 412 and settled beneath that point at market close, can set a stop just above 412 and watch it sink like a pebble into a river.

Edited by dmedin

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Yes, may well have found bottom at last. Impressive Tues candle, will be interesting what happens on the open today.

image.thumb.png.8b747e0936609a786c100f0c44bb50f7.png

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Well I decided to go in long at minimum bet size, very small amount of margin requiredm and put a stop around 400.

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Looks like this support level is holding though.  

1855292671_CannabisIndex_20200107_16_01.thumb.png.3a584baf931127a1b0e7ccd3a97c6473.png

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Holding on by a thread ... could be about to take another huge dump 😮

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Just looking at the roller coaster ride of the posts above, one simple plan would have been easier 😃

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59 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Just looking at the roller coaster ride of the posts above, one simple plan would have been easier 😃

image.thumb.png.3701853b5077114073cd67cb6ba7df5c.png

 

It would have, and a long position with a stop beneath 400 would be more appropriate now.

But with hindsight anyone can be an expert.

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Just now, dmedin said:

 

It would have, and a long position with a stop beneath 400 would be more appropriate now.

But with hindsight anyone can be an expert.

er ... what hindsight;

On 02/01/2020 at 14:50, dmedin said:

Well I decided to go in long at minimum bet size, very small amount of margin requiredm and put a stop around 400.

make a plan, stick to the plan rather than this up, no down, up no hold, no down, no up  ... rpt ad nauseam. 🙄

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I've got a long position on and I want to treat it like an investment (forget about it for months or even several years), except maybe to add positions over time

Now this looks good, I need some of those magic mushrooms.

Quote

Psilocybin Mushrooms Offering Major Breakthrough for Mental Health Psilocybin Mushrooms are offering sizable breakthroughs for a myriad of mental health issues.

 

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6 hours ago, dmedin said:

I've got a long position on and I want to treat it like an investment (forget about it for months or even several years), except maybe to add positions over time

Now this looks good, I need some of those magic mushrooms.

 

I'm long on Aurora, but feel it may take another year before it starts pushing upwards (if it survives at all). Wouldn't IG commissions on your long position eat all your potential gains over years or am I missing something? I find it very expensive to have long positions on anything using IG portal. Am I missing something?

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5 hours ago, RichardSmith said:

I'm long on Aurora, but feel it may take another year before it starts pushing upwards (if it survives at all). Wouldn't IG commissions on your long position eat all your potential gains over years or am I missing something? I find it very expensive to have long positions on anything using IG portal. Am I missing something?

I didn't think about the overnight funding charges.  Yes you're right.

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11 hours ago, RichardSmith said:

I'm long on Aurora, but feel it may take another year before it starts pushing upwards (if it survives at all). Wouldn't IG commissions on your long position eat all your potential gains over years or am I missing something? I find it very expensive to have long positions on anything using IG portal. Am I missing something?

There are threads on which is more cost effective, spot (DFB) or Futures (Forwards) which have a larger spread but no overnight interest fees, but can't seem to find the one I'm looking for. As I recall basically if you are looking to hold longer than 1-2 weeks then the futures is cheaper but less than that then the spot is cheaper.

see this recent thread to find the futures/forwards charts.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

There are threads on which is more cost effective, spot (DFB) or Futures (Forwards) which have a larger spread but no overnight interest fees, but can't seem to find the one I'm looking for. As I recall basically if you are looking to hold longer than 1-2 weeks then the futures is cheaper but less than that then the spot is cheaper.

see this recent thread to find the futures/forwards charts.

 

 

 

There are no futures offered for the cannabis index.  It's a problem.  Might be worth finding the corresponding ETF (if there is one) and buy real shares, but it would have to be with another broker because IG are puritanical middle England types.

Edited by dmedin

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

There are no futures offered for the cannabis index.  It's a problem.  Might be worth finding the corresponding ETF (if there is one) and buy real shares, but it would have to be with another broker because IG are puritanical middle England types.

no futures on the index yes but I was thinking of Aurora as was mentioned by the poster above.

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14 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

no futures on the index yes but I was thinking of Aurora as was mentioned by the poster above.

How does it work exactly? Say if I buy Sep 20 ones or March 20, won't I need to pay overnight charges? What's the difference with buying cash?

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6 hours ago, RichardSmith said:

How does it work exactly? Say if I buy Sep 20 ones or March 20, won't I need to pay overnight charges? What's the difference with buying cash?

Hi, where available futures and forward contracts were specifically designed to be more cost effective for holding longer term, you pay a higher spread which needs to be repaid each rollover (usually 3 months) but you don't pay any overnight fees.

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'Global cannabis sales grew 48% to $15 billion in 2019'

Hit resistance though :(

1018745094_CannabisIndex_20200116_14_59.thumb.png.5dbc38fc752c7e63bb3253687a6a0c19.png

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