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Brent Crude rally ends, time for the big Bear!

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Crude is pooping out.  Looking for an exit out of my trade asap.

Given that the U.S.A. is the world's number 1 oil producer now, and the environmental pressure, maybe Brent is now permanently capped at lower prices.  Doomed!

Edited by dmedin

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Yeah the breakout never really materialised @dmedin so the Long wasn't on.  A long trade at the 6200 should have had a stop very close so that any reversal closes quickly or at a minimum a move to close or BE once the market put in that small rally up to 6300.  Any Longs from lower could be held at BE or cashed once the reversal was recognised.

The issue to be addressed now is whether the market is in a consolidation preparatory to a further break lower through the 5600 level or is in the beginning of a rising trend that will break to the upside.  My route map to higher highs remains intact so long as the wave B (blue) low is not broken.

So net the 2 levels of interest for me are 5600 on the low side and 6300 on the high side and until one of those is breached with the right price action moves we wont know the medium term direction.

On a separate note, I find Oil to be a very tricky market to trade and only consider it when at potential major turns with a high rewards to risk ratio, if at all.  There are better, more consistent and more forgiving markets, especially for beginners with small accounts.  FX is the best for this I think.  The trade du jour however was Short Gold, which is what I have been focused on tracking for some weeks.  I did trade a small position on Oil but closed it when I saw the reversal.

One other thing perhaps of interest is that to me trading is a bit like dingy fishing on a lake.  If you have several people fishing off the same boat and one gets a bite the others take their rods out of the water and stow them until the fish is landed.  When I caught Gold/Silver the other day I similarly closed off all my other interests until I was in a good position stop protected.  This is about focus but also about money management and overall exposure management.  Speaking of which, over to my Gold/Silver thread...

Brent-Daily_081119.thumb.png.cbe8fef20e54743e64b4b33c727c23e3.png

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Spoke too soon?

That's a really bullish candle!

LCO-Daily.thumb.png.40e7029c42e28286265a231c7dcd77ee.png

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Gap ought to be closed and then we will see if there is to be a breakout this time or another false dawn...

Brent-1-hour_111119.thumb.png.c882b2791103776b59deca593902c2fe.png

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middle of the channel is the place you do not trade.  This could easily be a consolidation phase, probably is, and until it breakout out decisively both bullish and bearish scenarios are in play.

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I closed out without a loss.  At least I made 60p interest per day while my position was open.  :D  I closed because I just saw that today is oil inventories day!  Zut alors, I have not been doing my homework.

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