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Rough Rice by TrendFollower

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Rough Rice went up 246 points today and was up around 2.18%

There is a clear breakout. Trend identification is key. I do not know if this trend will get stronger or manifest itself into one hell of a 'Long' trade but identifying key trends to monitor is crucial to a trading strategy. This could lead to a potentially profitable trade. 

It does not matter which asset you are trading. The important point is that it is trending strongly and that you identify it as early as possible. If one can utilise leverage to take advantage of points per £ and the directional move is in your favour then it is about maximising potential profits against risk. 

I include the latest chart below. Rough Rice is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. This is a bullish indicator signalling a 'Long' trade. 


The volume (green bars) supports the price action and strong recent move upwards. This is another strong signal. I include the chart below to illustrate this point.


The Parabolic SAR is also showing the price above the green dots which is yet another bullish indicator. I include the chart below to show this point. 


Momentum is another key factor and this also shows in the favour of Rough Rice and I include the chart below to show this. 


Now all the above things can be used in your 'trading basket' to aid you in making an effective as possible trading decision. Using the above will not guarantee that your trade will be both successful or profitable. What it can do is allow you an opportunity to trade with the trend rather than against it and increase the odds and probability in your favour. You will notice that I have not included anything too technical or complex above. These are all indicators available on IG's platform. Your trading style can be as simple as you want it. Trading does not need to be complex or difficult that very few can understand. 

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So what is Rough Rice doing at the moment?

It hit $11765.90 today which was its highest price point since the start of this year (2019). 

Now it is being reported that Sri Lanka is expecting a bumper harvest. However to balance this Bangladesh are having to deal with export issues such as government subsidies. There has been flooding near Arkansas river which has left a field of flooded rice. 

Rice may not be the sexiest asset to trade but sometimes the best trades are those you least expect. It is about identifying the trends and breakouts in the first place at the earliest opportunity and trading them to your advantage in the direction of the trend rather than against it.


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Rough Rice is trending nicely at the moment. Rice may not be the sexiest commodities to trade but the chart is looking good from a price action perspective. 


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Rough Rice is very 'choppy' to trade but it is going up slowly though the price action is 'erratic' so it is not one of the nicer trends to trade in my personal opinion. There are far more better trends out there which are also stronger. I think 'Swing' traders may appreciate it a bit more. 


The one thing I do is monitor the price action of various assets. So within Commodities I will monitor the price action of several / various Commodities to try and identify any trends as early as possible based on price action.

Trading is not just about monitoring the price action of what you are trading but monitoring the price action of what you are not trading. This is where experience, learning and knowledge can be acquired from. 

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What we can see from the 'daily' is that Rough Rice has not been making any new lows recently. It has arrived at the point where it is trying to break out. 


It is being reported that Rice inventories have declined since last year. This brings 'demand and supply' into the equation and the fundamentals seem to support a rise in prices. However, I still think the supply is more than enough to keep prices where they are so I will let the price action show me the way. 

The key countries to look at when it comes to Rice production are:

  • China
  • Indonesia
  • Vietnam
  • India
  • Bangladesh
  • Philippines 

The weather such has heavy rains and wet season can play a significant role. This is something to keep an eye out for. Something else to keep an eye out for is the USDA reports and whether US exports are increasing or decreasing. This can help show whether demand is increasing in say Asia hence the increase in exports from the US. 

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Rough Rice is still trending upwards. 

Now just look at all of the 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA curves all sloping upwards on the 'daily' below:


The price is trading above the 'Parabolic SAR' which is a very bullish signal. 


I think the outlook from a fundamental perspective on some of the 'Soft Commodities' is looking bullish due to supply deficits and production estimates. 

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Rough Rice is still driving upwards in terms of price action. 

What is interesting is that the 'Money Flow Index' is not suggesting overbought levels for an asset which has trended rather strongly in my personal opinion. 


It has gone to overbought levels but when reverted back down again whilst the price action remained bullish which is very interesting and I am not sure how to take that reaction. 

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Rough Rice is just experiencing a small correction as I have highlighted in the 'daily' chart below.


I think now it is key to establish if the move upward will resume or will be see the high being retested and this will help us to identify if the trend is showing signs of exhaustion which may lead to a reversal or whether it continues going upwards. 

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