Silver Bullet

[elle 146]

On ‎07‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 12:50, elle said:

Silver , as seen in my chart, has reacted reasonably well to the fib levels.  I guess people will now be looking for a break below that blue zone or above that yellow trend line. I have noticed that the Gold:Silver ratio is historically very high & maybe that may either pause or reverse

trend line still holding !

[Mercury 252]

Similar set up to that posted on my Gold/Silver rally thread.  Again the wave B (green) held, this time at Fib 62% ( a bit weaker than Gold perhaps, which is consistent with recent price action.  I wonder will that correlation continue on the way down? 

Also similar to Gold we have a small 1-5 down and now potentially tracing out an A-B-C retrace to retest the channel breakout zone, or a bit above perhaps.  Again a break to a lower low on this move, with a 1-5 down and an A-B-C up is bearish.  A retest of the 1490 would then be indicated and a break of this brings up the scenarios for a longer bearish move previously noted.  Alignment between Silver, Gold and USD is obvious at present as it seems that Fed policy in particular holds sway.  Not sure we will have to wait for final Fed rate decision on USD pairs, maybe ECB and BoE will have something to influence before that but perhaps Silver and Gold will be more reliant on the Fed?

[Mercury 252]

Silver is a bit more buoyant than Gold just now and following a slightly different form in that the 1-5 down took a bit longer to achieve and looked like a breakout initially but then rallied back sharply.  Price action within a consolidation zone is often like this, lots of whip saw action and we should see a turn and drop again once the market has tested a suitable resistance zone (Fib 76/78% is just above.  Non Commercial net COT data is deteriorating for a high 2 weeks ago, as with Gold, and again if this continues we will see a drop off next week.

 

[Mercury 252]

Silver certainly seems to be showing the kind of whip saw price action one would expect inside a consolidation Triangle.  at one point it looked like a retest of the weekly chart down sloping trend line might be on and it may yet, or maybe a test of the Fib 76/78%.  Having said that there is a decent case for a wave B turn right now, I am Short off this turn.  With USD seemingly beginning a retrace rally and Gold also turning we may see a strong carry down on Gold/Silver.  Also have NMD at the turning point with a 1H chart pin bar in play.

Edited July 15 by Mercury
for to add a point

[Mercury 252]

The whipsaw continues but now we appear to be at the moment of truth.  Silver and Gold just took a run down along with an underlying USD rally.  Looks like the markets are getting a bit nervy about the Fed decision at the end of the month.  Still this is not yet resolved so could we see a breakout through that weekly LT resistance trend line and does that matter if Gold remains subdued?

Short term, if we have just seen a top and small 1-2 retrace rally then a break below the 1H chart Triangle could indicate a Bearish phase.  The move up looks to be a classic chaotic wave B within a consolidation Triangle (Weekly) also describing a series of A-B-Cs.  In addition there is NMD between the A and C (brown), a good indicator of a retrace move termination.

 It does rather seem line Gold and Silver traders are looking to the Fed rate cut to stimulate further buying, whether as an inflation hedge or as a sign that the Economy is weak.  We may have to wait until the end of the month for this to play out and that could mean more consolidation whipsaw price action or a full retrace move.  Despite being a perma bear on stocks, I don't quite see this as a full turning point yet, but who really knows...  For now I am content to chance a Short at such a pivotal resistance point, especially as I don't see the retrace as having fully played out yet and Gold has lost its oomph.

[Mercury 252]

Looks like the Silver bullet is back on.  I have reversed my positions on a strong breakout to the upside.  "As goes Silver, so goes Gold"?

 

[dmedin 89]

Gold dropped today and silver went up.  huh?

[Mercury 252]

Well Gold rallied hard recently while Silver lagged.  These markets are related but not identical.  Besides it may be more correct to say Silver rallied while Gold lagged in consolidation pending a rally..?  The day is not yet over and the week only just begun.

[Mercury 252]

Silver remains buoyant today and is approaching a key resistance breakout point (circa 1625).

[dmedin 89]

Yes, it is looking good for the 'precious' this week.  🤠👍

[Mercury 252]

My view on Silver is similar to Gold, see my Gold/Silver in LT rally thread.  I am seeing a small scale retrace that will likely retest the Silver key resistance breakout level (circa 1620).  A rally away from this level will be strongly Bearish and we need to see a close above the key level for the week.  There is a lot of over hanging resistance to get through before Silver is in clear air so this could take a few whipsaw turns to get going (alternatively it could cut through like a hot knife through butter.  I am already Long from lower down and stop protected at BE so my strategy now is to enter a pyramiding phase.  As I have mentioned before, Silver is likely to out perform Gold, if the 2011 rally is anything to go by, and Silver was lagging and retraced further than Gold down to 2015 so the upside here is much larger.

On the watch out side, Silver is more volatile an spiky than Gold so large draw downs are to be expected.  This one could easily spike down through that key support/resistance level before rallying away.