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Everything up except USD and Crypto. Chart USD basket.

Carney speaks 11am, EU mon pol accounts 12:30, US CPI and jobs data 1:30pm

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Indices Gold Oil Crypto up, Bonds USD down. Chart Copper bottoming out.

China data 8am, EU indy prod 10am, US PPI 1:30pm.

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Indices up, USD flat. Bonds, Oil and Gold down, Crypto down. Chart Ether down 8%.

Japan bank holiday.

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Asian markets down Crypto down, Bonds up, USD flat, Oil and Gold up. Chart Bund.

UK average earnings 9:30, Ger econ senti 10:00, US retail sales 1:30pm. Lots of Fed speak throughout the day. Ger sentiment expected at a very depressed -20.9.

 

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Indices mixed USD down, Bonds up Oil up after yesterday's big drop, Gold down. Chart Microsoft down 1.4%.

CPI data for UK and EU, US housing starts, US oil inventories.

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Overnight Indices and USD down, Bonds  and Oil up, Gold down Cryptos up. Chart Caterpillar down 2.6%.

UK retail sales 9:30, US jobs data and Philly Fed 1:30pm.

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Overnight Indices up Bonds down, Oil up Gold pausing after recent breakout, Crypto down. Chart Gold.

Ger PPI 7:00, UK borrowing 9:30, US consumer sentiment 3:00pm.

 

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Starting out fairly flat, Asian markets down as bets come off for an aggressive rate cut next week. USD up Crypto up and Bonds down overnight. Chart USDJPY.

Not much on the calendar today or tomorrow, ECB rate decision Thursday and US GDP Friday.

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Overnight, Indices and USD up, Bonds and Gold down, Crypto down. Chart Gold.

Today, EU bank lending, UK Tory leadership contest, US housing.

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Overnight and Indices up. Gold, Oil up, Bonds, USD flat and Crypto down. Chart Barclays.

PMIs - Ger 8:30, EU 9:00, US 2:45pm.

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Overnight Indices Crypto Bonds Oil USD up, Gold down. Chart Cat down over 4% on downsized expectations from US shale indy also weighed on the Dow yesterday.

Ger business climate data 9:00, ECB rate decision 12:45 and presser 1:30, US durable goods 1:30.

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Overnight Indices mixed, USD and Bonds flat, Crypto down and Oil and Gold up.

Earnings Amazon miss, Alphabet beat. Chart Alphabet up 7.5% 

On the calendar and today it's all about US GDP 1:30pm.

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End of day Indices Bonds and USD up, Oil and BTC down. Chart US fang up 2%.

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Overnight indices down Oil down, USD, Bonds and Gold up. Chart Alphabet up nearly 10%.

Not much on today's calendar.

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Overnight Indices USD and Oil up, Bonds and Gold down. Chart GBPUSD.

Today Ger consumer conf and CPI, EU business climate, and US personal spending and consumer conf.

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Overnight Asian indices down, USD flat, Crypto up, Bonds and Oil up, Gold down. Chart Nasdaq.

Ger employment and retail sales, EU GDP and CPI, US ADP nfp, FOMC rate decision, mon pol statement and presser.

 

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Overnight and still lots of red, quite a feat to crash everything all at once except the USD of course which is flying high, hate to be Powell when he gets that phone call from Trump 😳

UK rate decision today, let's hope Carnage can kick up a s**tstorm of equal volatility. 

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After the Trump announcement Indices red but USD, Gold and Oil recoiling a bit after the surge. Chart China 300.

US NFP 1:30pm today.

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Overnight USD down. Oil down and Gold up, Cryptos down. Chart Bund takes a breather (not sure why there are no Friday candles on the Bund daily chart).

Not much on the calendar for today.

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Overnight USD up, Indices rebounding, Asian markets down, Oil down Gold up, Bonds mixed. Chart Caterpillar down 2.2%

GB ave earnings 9:30, Ger econ sentiment 10:00, US CPI 1:30pm.

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Overnight change and markets settling after the most recent Trump play, Gold holding up quite well chart.

Ger GDP, UK CPI, EU GDP.

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Overnight USD down, Indices trying to lift, Oil down Gold up, Bonds up chart Bund.

Lots of US data today at 1:30pm should be interesting.

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Overnight Indices and USD up Cryptos down, Oil up Gold down and Bonds take a breather. Chart 30 year Treasury Bond.

US housing data, plus the only high impact release today is the US Mich consumer sentiment at 3pm.

 

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Indices continue to bounce back as Bonds retreat, USD and Oil up, Gold down. Chart US 30 Year Treasury.

No high impact news today, EU CPI at 10:00.

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Overnight Indices Oil up, USD down, Crypto up, Bonds and Gold up. Chart DXY weekly.

Nil high impact data releases today.

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Overnight Indices up Bonds down, USD up Crypto down. Chart BTC weekly.

High impact today is Canadian CPI at 1:30pm and the minutes release of the last FOMC mtg 7:00pm.

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Looking Risk Neutral this morning, Indices mixed, USD down Bonds flat, Oil and Gold down.

Chart US 10 y Treasury.

High impact releases today Ger PMI, EU PMI. Start of the 3 day Jackson Hole symposium, news leaks throughout and can be market moving affecting positions over the weekend plus UK bank holiday Monday.

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The board remains risk neutral leaning to risk on with Bonds continuing to drift down, Indices, USD and Oil up, Gold down.

Lots of Fed speak today and the markets are keen for any kind of news so could get jumpy, JH symposium continues today and into Saturday and UK bank holiday Monday.

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    • yes @TrendFollower, there are plenty of long term investors with IG and it's right they should take notice and plan well ahead for any eventuality but traders should be thinking differently and look to be responsive to changes in market conditions. As in my previous post the big indices always look a bit toppy and it's too easy to get in short too soon. Back in 2016 there was talk of impending recession for most of the year and many new traders blew their accounts continually shorting the market trying to 'catch the big one', the get rich quick trade. It was depressing to watch.  Here's another interesting chart of S&P seasonal pattern of average return 1990-2018 suggesting uncertainty in the short term before resumption upward.
    • @Caseynotes, One must remember that on average it can take around 18 months from when the treasury yield curve flips or inverts to the start of a recession.  People talk about Dr. Copper but another commodity that it is worth keeping an eye on is Lumber. When housing construction begins to drop then that can be one of many indicators to have a look at. Others are inflation, interest rate direction, wage growth, unemployment, etc. There are many well documents indicators which signal a potential recession is around the corner.  From a trading perspective one should not worry as long as one is comfortable shorting. Those who are not may struggle to consistently make enough profits during a recessionary period. 
    • @Caseynotes, Yes that is right. I have seen some calling the recession for the past two to three years! They have been calling it as if it is around the corner. Then when it does not come they move the goal posts via obscure technical analysis. When one challenges it, one is deemed negative or a naysayer.  Corrections happen large and small. Investors sell investments to take profits. This has been happening since the markets began. Prices go up and down. Prices are bullish and bearish. Of course trading sentiment plays a big part but for me following the price action and letting the price action lead you to a trading decision is key. Trying to wait for the price action to follow your view and then changing the narrative by giving technical reasoning when it does not follow your view in my opinion will lead to missing out on trading opportunities.  For a sound trader, recessions, should not be feared but welcomed. If one understands how prices react during recessions then one can prepare their trading strategy for this outcome but for when it happens and not before.   
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