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34 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Indices try a second attempt at a bounce

obviously conditioned by the action since Thursday I'd call this another set-up of retail by Wall Street to prepare for the next round of tech sell-off before the 50% NDX retracement level is reached... 

Edited by HMB
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Visualisation in Excel of current market situation: Built using https://www.excelpricefeed.com  

"...an inverting yield curve and weak June manufacturing data across the globe have divided analysts on whether or not a pullback is due. DWS forecasts a “moderate cooling of economic activity”, but J

Overnight remains risk off. Indices and Oil down. Gold and Bonds up with Bonds just pulling back. Today not much on the calendar so it's all about the virus. 

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12 minutes ago, HMB said:

obviously conditioned by the action since Thursday I'd call this another set-up of retail by Wall Street to prepare for the next round of tech sell-off before the 50% NDX retracement level is reached... 

there was an interesting report from Reuters 5am that Softbank, in spite of losing $15 billion capitalisation, did not want to be seen as short term traders suggesting they were not going to automatically collapse all their positions.

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11 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

there was an interesting report from Reuters 5am that Softbank, in spite of losing $15 billion capitalisation, did not want to be seen as short term traders suggesting they were not going to automatically collapse all their positions.

thanks!  just logged in an read it.  I agree with you, think that's good reasoning.  likely they still have significant positions, and don't want to hold their options till the time value is zero.  plus they likely have made enough money  already with that trade.  NDX chart looks to me like 38 fib (also long period of oscillation around that level yesterday pre-market) maybe seemed like a logical level to unload some more, but then again I was pretty wrong yesterday

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17 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

And are you actually trading any forex?

My advice to anyone reading this is, don't go f*king near it :)

 

perfectly reasonable bit of coding, just calc's the moving averages over multiple time frames of the currencies and plots them together on the same graph for comparison. 

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32 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

perfectly reasonable bit of coding, just calc's the moving averages over multiple time frames of the currencies and plots them together on the same graph for comparison. 

 

Tom, you call me a bullsh!tter.  But you have far more experience in bullsh!tting than I do :D 

Edited by dmedin
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2 minutes ago, HMB said:

sorry, I may have missed it, but I couldn't find what you mean with these in the thread - would you mind explaining, please?

Each line is a single line representation of the multi time frame moving averages of each currency.

The information we get is which individual currencies are strong and which are weak (as in most correlation tables) but also shows at a glance which individual currencies are strengthening and which are weakening.

A currency high on the chart is strong and one low is weak. A downward moving average is showing a currency is weakening and an upward sloping MA shows strengthening.

With this information we can compare and match a strong currency to a weak one which should show on the currency's chart as trending while 2 currencies of equal strength will show as sideways price movement.

And we can also see into the probable short term future, if the slopes of two currencies cross and continue to diverge we should be seeing the start and strengthening of a new trend.

Not infallible but can lend weight to short term hypotheses.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Each line is a single line representation of the multi time frame moving averages of each currency.

The information we get is which individual currencies are strong and which are weak (as in most correlation tables) but also shows at a glance which individual currencies are strengthening and which are weakening.

A currency high on the chart is strong and one low is weak. A downward moving average is showing a currency is weakening and an upward sloping MA shows strengthening.

With this information we can compare and match a strong currency to a weak one which should show on the currency's chart as trending while 2 currencies of equal strength will show as sideways price movement.

And we can also see into the probable short term future, if the slopes of two currencies cross and continue to diverge we should be seeing the start and strengthening of a new trend.

Not infallible but can lend weight to short term hypotheses.

 

 

Thank you!

"single line representation of the multi time frame moving averages of each currency" - base = USD for each?

...think I get it - "correlations" in the sense that the shown moving averages may indicate (changes in) correlations...

(sorry, I got confused a bit - when I read correlations I was expecting something like the table below)

  FX_correlations.thumb.png.4441c49553bf73b32024a8f3a8a387cd.png

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1 minute ago, HMB said:

Thank you!

"single line representation of the multi time frame moving averages of each currency" - base = USD for each?

...think I get it - "correlations" in the sense that the shown moving averages may indicate (changes in) correlations...

(sorry, I got confused a bit - when I read correlations I was expecting something like the table below)

  FX_correlations.thumb.png.4441c49553bf73b32024a8f3a8a387cd.png

you're welcome, no not based on USD, the coding looks like all combinations are taken into account to give a stand alone number for each including USD.

Yes, as mentioned in my post correlations usually do come as a table but you can see the advantage of the history graph that displays where each currency is coming from and where it's heading to and help predict crossovers.

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okay - yes of course, reading your first sentence again... in other words each line is a (weighted) average of moving averages

very interesting, good way to summarize fx performance imho - should make it easier to identify e.g. if a EURUSD rise is due to EUR strength or USD weakness, to give a simple example... am I understanding this roughly correctly..?

Edited by HMB
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9 minutes ago, HMB said:

okay - yes of course, reading your first sentence again... in other words each line is a (weighted) average of moving averages

very interesting, good way to summarize fx performance imho - should make it easier to identify e.g. if a EURUSD rise is due to EUR strength or USD weakness, to give a simple example... am I understanding this roughly correctly..?

it does use weighted moving averages of fast and slow moving average to give an average of averages.

yes, looking at the chart of a strong matched to a weak the chart should already be trending, looking at the chart of 2 currencies that are moving in opposite directions and crossing over could indicate the start of a new trend.

 

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