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Overnight Indices and Oil down. Bonds and Gold up.

UK jobs and pay data at 9:30am. Ger and EU econ senti data at 10am.

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S&P straight back into all time highs. Indices up. Bonds, Oil and Gold down.

BoC rate decision 3pm, presser at 4:15pm.

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Oil has closed beneath the uptrend that had been in place since October :(

 

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14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Oil has closed beneath the uptrend that had been in place since October :(

 

chart?

Both looking keen to retest last weeks low.

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China locks down city to prevent virus spread. Indices, Oil and Gold down. Bonds up.

ECB rate decision at 12:45 and presser at 1:30.

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Overnight Indices and Oil up. Bonds and Gold down.

Flash PMIs; Ger 8:30AM, EU 9:00, UK 9:30. US manu and services at 2:45pm.

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Over the weekend Indices and Oil down, Bonds and Gold up.

Today Ger business climate and expectations at 9am. US housing data at 3pm.

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Overnight Indices up. Bonds, Oil and Gold down.

Today at 1:30pm US durable goods and at 3pm US consumer conf.

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Overnight Indices Bonds Gold Oil and USD all up, nice trick.

Today is of course FOMC day, rate decision at 7pm, presser at 7:30.

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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Today is of course FOMC day, rate decision at 7pm, presser at 7:30.

Rates will be left unchanged

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Rates will be left unchanged

probably true, the real news these days is in the presser and it's hints for immediate future expectations.

But what about Carney and the BoE tomorrow, talk of a possible rate cut there?

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IG retail client Long/Short net positioning;

nb/

SI = Silver,

CL = Crude Oil,

GC = Gold.

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Fed rate out at 19:00 GMT, not long. 

Fed expected to keep rates on hold at 1.5-1.75%

Trump urges Fed to ‘get smart’ and cut rate

Seven policy makers forecast above 2% target inflation in 2022

CPI rises in 2019 at fastest pace in eight years, but inflation still low

IGTV live show now on the platform for those interested. 

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5 hours ago, CharlotteIG said:

Trump urges Fed to ‘get smart’

How ironic

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Overnight Indices and Oil down. Bonds, USD and Gold up.

Today EU business climate at 10am. UK BoE rate decision at 12:00, Carney speaks at 12:30. Ger CPI at 1pm. US GDP at 1:30pm. Japan indy prod at 11:50pm.

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Bearish phase confirmed.  Look to buy bargains at the bottom at some point this year - great opportunities arise, even from global viral epidemics

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Overnight Indices, USD and Oil up. Bonds and Gold down.

Today EU GDP and CPI at 10am. US Chicago PMI at 2:45pm and Mitch consumer senti at 3pm.

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Over the weekend Indices and USD up, Bonds, Oil and Gold down.

PMIs today, Ger at 8:55, UK at 9am, CAD at 2:30pm, US 2:45 - 3pm.

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Overnight Indices, Oil and USD up. Bonds and Gold down.

Today US factory orders at 3pm.

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Overnight Indices down a touch after a strong day yesterday. Gold up slightly after a hard fall yesterday. Bonds and Oil up.

8:55am Ger Comp PMI. 9am EU Comp PMI. 9:30 UK Services PMI. 1:15 US ADP nfp. 2:45 - 3pm US PMIs.

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Overnight Indices, USD and Oil up. Bonds down, Gold flat.

Today Ger factory orders at 7am. Lagarde speaks at 8am. EU econ bulletin and forecasts at 9 and 10am. US jobs data at 1:30pm.

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Indices overnight resting about the highs, USD and Oil up. Bonds up and Gold down.

US NFP today at 1:30pm. Ger indy prod at 7am.

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9 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

Not much movement around this morning, IG clients still long cryptos and oil, short indices and the USD:

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Interesting combination by 'the Herd', short indices (as ever), but long oil. Top and bottom picking (as ever, no I don't believe they are hedging).

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"Bears gained traction just in time for this last melt up

The crowd continues to be on the wrong side of sqeeezes. AAII bear sentiment updated."

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13 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Interesting combination by 'the Herd', short indices (as ever), but long oil. Top and bottom picking (as ever, no I don't believe they are hedging).

Thought I would take a closer look at oil. It's the usual story, here is the oil price (orange) vs client long sentiment (blue).

As the price dropped from the start of the year clients have been loading up their long positions:

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21 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

Thought I would take a closer look at oil. It's the usual story, here is the oil price (orange) vs client long sentiment (blue).

As the price dropped from the start of the year clients have been loading up their long positions:

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as ever the usual story, the massive daily bear bar Jan 8th told everyone exactly what those who have the best resources and research thought of this market so retail do the opposite because, er, contrarian or something. And of course when proved wrong you should always revenge trade and double and even triple down lol.

 

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Over the weekend and Indices and Gold up. Bonds, USD and Oil down.

Not much on the calendar today and is a news lite week for planned data releases.image.thumb.png.0260422981f7e1d72e9459972bf90ae9.png

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    • This week is a crucial week for US indices I think especially end of the week. If we are going to see extreme Dow soon, the market will let us know.  The volatility is expected to pick up so money can probably be made in both directions with 1000+ points move again. I personally would not go long for a couple days. There are positions trapped right now going long from last week so I would guess some will be forced to endure some pain, unless they volunteer to take losses.
    • If it moves below $5k to maybe $4k again, it doesn't look like there is a great deal of support. Sure it can double in a short span of time but don't you think this is a very risky trade?
    • as explained earlier in the thread the cumulative risk reward ratio (auto calc'd on a spread sheet) plotted on the chart with the win rate is absolutely fool proof in revealing if a strategy is profitable of not. Also if you make any changes to the strategy the result will show up quickly in the stats so revealing whether the change was advantageous or not. Without hard statistics people have a habit of misleading themselves as to how well they and their strategy are really doing.
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