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Brexit, Bath and Beyond


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This article from David Stockman's Contra Corner, doesn't pull any punches.  It may be what one would expect from a former Reagan adviser but that doesn't mean he is wrong.  My take is that now we have Brexit the Banks and Pensions funds are going to take a bath (they can't get out if there is no safe haven and they can't be not invested) and then beyond that is the all markets collapse and global depression.


It's not because of Brexit but this is the first tremour and the cracks are really beginning to show now.


Does anyone still believe the Bull is not dead?  I'd love to hear your views if you do.




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Some people are concerned about the motives behind the Leave vote, immigration, financial control etc but at its heart is freedom and democracy, chiefly the notion that the EU is fundamentally not democratic and that decisions made in Brussels are not being made by democratically elected representative.


If you had any doubts about this here is what Martin Schultz, the President of the European Parliament had you say yesterday:


"The British have violated the rules. It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate".


BTW, does anyone remember voting for this guy?


The same Martin Schultz said this in May:


"A Brexit would be a disaster both for the European Union and for Britain"



On related note, here is what Deutsche Bank had to say (courtesy of Zero Hedge):


The shockwaves and consequences around Brexit will resonate for years. It's probably an understatement to say that most in financial markets regret the UK's decision to leave but we should respect the forces that have been pushing us towards what has always been an inevitable political accident sometime soon. I wasn't sure whether the Brexit vote was the one but I was pretty convinced one was coming and this is probably not the last. Spain yesterday started a general election cycle (more below but relatively market friendly) of the largest 5 euro-area economies (Spain, Holland, France, Germany and Italy) over the next 18 months or so, not forgetting the US this November. Throw in the crucial senate reform vote in Italy in October and you've got plenty of opportunity for rebellion against the establishment that haven't managed to produce satisfactory enough growth for the lower paid/lower skilled to offset the forces of globalisation and immigration.


It's worth looking at the voting split in the UK's EU referendum based on polls compiled by Lord Ashcroft to get an idea of the disenfranchisement. In terms of socio-economic groups, 57% of ABs (upper/middle class - professional/managers etc) voted remain, 49% of C1s (lower middle class - supervisory/clerical or junior management/administrative), 36% of C2s (skilled working class) and 36% of DEs (Ds - semi & unskilled manual workers. Es - casual/lowest grade worker or state pensioner). So there's no escaping the fact that this is a class war. Whether its globalisation, immigration, inequality, poor economic growth or a combination of all of them it's quite clear from this and other anti-establishment movements that the status quo can't last in a democracy. Eventually you'll have a reaction. This is one such major reaction and given that the UK growth rate has been ok of late, it would be strange if pressure didn't continue to build elsewhere where growth has been lower for longer.

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