Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

FOMC 19th June 2019 - 1900 BST - watch IGTV Live

Recommended Posts

Slim but notable chance of a rate cut by the Fed this evening (1900 UK time). You can watch IGTV live over the announcement, both here on Community and within the dealing platform. 

 

sg2019061952877.gif

sg2019061952744.gif

Share this post


Link to post

Tentative consensus is an unchanged rate range of 225-250 bps, the CME currently gives a 20.8% (FF 19.7%) probability of a rate cut:  https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Also check out the IG dealing platform news and analysis section for up to date information on the rate decision, and also the right hand twitter feed for immediate updates. 

image.png

Share this post


Link to post

In theory a rate cut would boost equities and see Gold stop its uptrend. Now it could be that the potential rate cut is being priced in as we speak and has been priced in. There are times when the opposite of what we think should happen occurs. It is fascinating how the price action of various assets will behave based on the Fed’s decision.

Share this post


Link to post

I personally would be surprised if the Fed cut rates. They would potentially keep this option when absolutely necessary and I don’t think the US is at that stage yet. 

Share this post


Link to post

No surprises in the data, word changes in the mon pol statement reflect concern over low inflation and point to the expected rate cut next month. The presser starts in 5 minutes.

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,285
    • Total Posts
      36,252
    • Total Members
      46,218
    Newest Member
    naimat
    Joined 25/08/19 10:34
  • Posts

    • yes @TrendFollower, there are plenty of long term investors with IG and it's right they should take notice and plan well ahead for any eventuality but traders should be thinking differently and look to be responsive to changes in market conditions. As in my previous post the big indices always look a bit toppy and it's too easy to get in short too soon. Back in 2016 there was talk of impending recession for most of the year and many new traders blew their accounts continually shorting the market trying to 'catch the big one', the get rich quick trade. It was depressing to watch.  Here's another interesting chart of S&P seasonal pattern of average return 1990-2018 suggesting uncertainty in the short term before resumption upward.
    • @Caseynotes, One must remember that on average it can take around 18 months from when the treasury yield curve flips or inverts to the start of a recession.  People talk about Dr. Copper but another commodity that it is worth keeping an eye on is Lumber. When housing construction begins to drop then that can be one of many indicators to have a look at. Others are inflation, interest rate direction, wage growth, unemployment, etc. There are many well documents indicators which signal a potential recession is around the corner.  From a trading perspective one should not worry as long as one is comfortable shorting. Those who are not may struggle to consistently make enough profits during a recessionary period. 
    • @Caseynotes, Yes that is right. I have seen some calling the recession for the past two to three years! They have been calling it as if it is around the corner. Then when it does not come they move the goal posts via obscure technical analysis. When one challenges it, one is deemed negative or a naysayer.  Corrections happen large and small. Investors sell investments to take profits. This has been happening since the markets began. Prices go up and down. Prices are bullish and bearish. Of course trading sentiment plays a big part but for me following the price action and letting the price action lead you to a trading decision is key. Trying to wait for the price action to follow your view and then changing the narrative by giving technical reasoning when it does not follow your view in my opinion will lead to missing out on trading opportunities.  For a sound trader, recessions, should not be feared but welcomed. If one understands how prices react during recessions then one can prepare their trading strategy for this outcome but for when it happens and not before.   
×
×