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FOMC 19th June 2019 - 1900 BST - watch IGTV Live

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Slim but notable chance of a rate cut by the Fed this evening (1900 UK time). You can watch IGTV live over the announcement, both here on Community and within the dealing platform. 

 

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Tentative consensus is an unchanged rate range of 225-250 bps, the CME currently gives a 20.8% (FF 19.7%) probability of a rate cut:  https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Also check out the IG dealing platform news and analysis section for up to date information on the rate decision, and also the right hand twitter feed for immediate updates. 

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In theory a rate cut would boost equities and see Gold stop its uptrend. Now it could be that the potential rate cut is being priced in as we speak and has been priced in. There are times when the opposite of what we think should happen occurs. It is fascinating how the price action of various assets will behave based on the Fed’s decision.

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I personally would be surprised if the Fed cut rates. They would potentially keep this option when absolutely necessary and I don’t think the US is at that stage yet. 

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No surprises in the data, word changes in the mon pol statement reflect concern over low inflation and point to the expected rate cut next month. The presser starts in 5 minutes.

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    • Guest Phil
      An interesting infographic https://www.ft.com/content/44bd6a8e-83a5-11e9-9935-ad75bb96c849   
    • Guest MrYield
      talk me thru tht one? 
    • Thanks for that @ChrisN, I am aware of it and practice the complex retrace tracking myself too.  What I was referring to was that the classic A-B-C corrective wave has the entire correction below (or above) the previous turn in my approach. I do use the classic A-B-C (5-3-5 internal wave profile) and also the complex retrace with the 3-3-5 internals and that one can get pretty tricky.  There is also a version of this that can be 3-3-3.  I also use the A-E Triangle form (3-3-3-3-3) for continuation consolidations and I find it especially useful for ending channels, I had a perfect one to set up my recent Shorts on US large caps.  However in all classic retrace cases (A-B-CsI do not allow the wave B to eclipse the previous motive wave high.  I am aware that some EWT analysts do use this mechanism.  As a matter of simplicity I kind of reject the notion that a wave 3 (motive) top can be eclipsed by a wave B top in a retrace move.  It would seem to make more sense in the classic 1-5 that the wave 3 is the peak and the next major peak would be the wave 5 but only after the retrace is completed. This is all a matter of personal choice of course, for me creating a trading and analytical method from existing technical analysis methodologies is about selecting the aspects of several that fits your psychology and testing it to ensure it works well.  A key factor is understanding when it doesn't work, one example would be where one of the more exotic EWT retrace scenarios takes place.  So I am aware but I do not use it in my methodology. Naturally I agree with your assessment of the power of the tool-sets but like anything it requires extensive study, practice and failures to learn how to use it best within the context of ones own psychology.
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