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Gold @ 1414 close to support at 1411 in recent range, range top is 1421.

H1 chart;

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Gold ranging between 1410 and 1424 while waiting for some inducement to head of in either direction, strong resistance just overhead at 1437.

H4 chart;,

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Gold on a down leg looking for support, recent low at 1386.

H4 chart;

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Strong push after Powell's mon pol statement today, looking ahead to the recent highs of 1439 but due a pause to avoid exhaustion.

H4 chart;

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Gold heading up to test recent resistance at 1409 off recent support at 1404.

H1 chart;.

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image.png.4e63f8beb523c53fe21b5f256699f7d8.pngTh

That open drop last monday cost me $2100, if only i had the nerve to hold it for a couple of days, would have made a approx $1500 profit, but thats the game we play.

 

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1 hour ago, davidbrister said:

image.png.4e63f8beb523c53fe21b5f256699f7d8.pngTh

That open drop last monday cost me $2100, if only i had the nerve to hold it for a couple of days, would have made a approx $1500 profit, but thats the game we play.

 

As the thread has been removed I can only go by memory but there are some important points.

The algo was working without stop losses, it was not shutting down trades that were going deeper and deeper into the red, the gold trade had lost 10% of the whole account in the last pic posted and was still climbing, never mind not losing more than 3% on a trade.

The gold price continued to go against, the algo was waiting for price to reverse again but what if it never did, the effective stop loss on the trade was the account balance hitting zero. 

That's why I asked if the algo had malfunctioned because such a system is guaranteed to blow the account, just a matter of time.

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it seems there was a 1500 point stop loss, but im guessing it was hoping for a price reversal before that took effect. what that big jump down did do was achieve the take profit on the 4 old positions that were sitting at almost $4k loss on paper, but were triggered with good results in the end. the trade that lost me the 2100 was a manual placed order i put on, which then i panicked and sold instead of keeping, even knowing the charts were suggesting hold and wait longer term for the price to go up. but thats the game.

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5 hours ago, davidbrister said:

it seems there was a 1500 point stop loss, but im guessing it was hoping for a price reversal before that took effect. what that big jump down did do was achieve the take profit on the 4 old positions that were sitting at almost $4k loss on paper, but were triggered with good results in the end. the trade that lost me the 2100 was a manual placed order i put on, which then i panicked and sold instead of keeping, even knowing the charts were suggesting hold and wait longer term for the price to go up. but thats the game.

Thanks David, for telling what is a very interesting and revealing story, shame it got jointed or butchered by the lawyers but that also raises the point there must be other IG clients also using the system and they should have concerns. Especially around the stop loss, I think you said your account for the experiment was 10k and the algo let the aggregate gold trade go 4k into the red when price turned and did return all the way past the entry and into profit. If the algo was not malfunctioning then it's constantly walking a tightrope of death for the account.

 

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Gold is coiling up with multiple recent support and resistance levels to overcome whichever direction it goes.

H4 chart;

image.thumb.png.50eec22f2e82e5444fedb910d12c79fb.png

 

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On 13/07/2019 at 11:25, davidbrister said:

image.png.4e63f8beb523c53fe21b5f256699f7d8.pngTh

That open drop last monday cost me $2100, if only i had the nerve to hold it for a couple of days, would have made a approx $1500 profit, but thats the game we play.

 

 

That 'game' sucks.  It's pure gambling and nobody but a billionaire with cash to burn can live that way.

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5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Gold is coiling up with multiple recent support and resistance levels to overcome whichever direction it goes.

Continues to tighten.

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Gold H4 and the coiling continues to get tighter but the break when it comes usually leads to a strong move, never quite sure which way the break will go but most chart patterns are continuation patterns.

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Still tracking sideways, has reached down to retest recent support so currently ranging between 1400 and 1418.

H4 chart;

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Gold topping at 1429 on this recent rally and will look to test that if indices continue to slump.

H4 chart;

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On ‎25‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 06:54, elle said:

maybe a retest of that breakdown candle ?

Capture brdo.PNG

quite a move up today

Capture bob.PNG

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Gold daily sees a break of the late June high 1439 that appears to be now acting as support.

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Gold finds support at 1420 and now legging up to find resistance but making hard work of it so far.

H4 chart;

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Gold searching for support, may find it here at prior low 1415 otherwise it could be all the way back down to 1400.

H4 chart;

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Gold supported at 1415 and now looking for resistance which was last found at 1429.

H4;

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17 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Gold trapped between 1413 and 1424.

H4 Chart;

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Agreed - looking for breakout but will be range bound until FOMC with possible short term spike on rate decision. However, now that FOMC 25 point is expected (rather than 50 point) I expect gold to pull back to range again thereafter.

What do you think?

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5 minutes ago, FFS_Daytrader said:

Agreed - looking for breakout but will be range bound until FOMC with possible short term spike on rate decision. However, now that FOMC 25 point is expected (rather than 50 point) I expect gold to pull back to range again thereafter.

What do you think?

Sounds a reasonable summing up, FOMC this Wednesday and Powell unlikely to do the unexpected, don't think too much is expected from the US/China trade talks this week and NFP Friday, July's data doesn't usually throw up big surprises.

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From investing.com on the possible affect of 25 BP cut today on Gold;

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Has broken down through 1410 daily chart support level and RSI 50 so looks to be heading for a retest of next support level 1400.

Daily chart;

image.thumb.png.bbb87d2ea650417e1a3333c8042d0a7c.png

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The call in yesterday morning's post for a retest of 1400 was spot on to the tick but missed the bit about then going on to test 1450, could be a waiting day today to see how the indices perform and what NFP brings this afternoon.

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    • Going back to my FTSE analysis I see things as follows: 2 scenarios present themselves, other than fresh ATHs that is: 1) the move down to the turn on Thursday was a wave 1 (blue) off a larger scale wave 2 (purple) that should retrace, maybe in a complex fashion with a lot of whip saw price action maybe not, let's see; 2) the recent rally and drop to a new low was a 1-2 (red), which indicates a much stronger leg down is immanent. The #2 scenario would only be valid if price holds below the previous high (circa 7300).  I favour the #1 scenario. There was PMD on the 4H chart at wave 1 (blue), which suggests this is a turning point.  Also the 4H chart shows a 1-5 wave down to the 1 blue, which would be motive and suggests a trend change to the bearish side. There was strong NMD at wave 2 (Purple) which is consistent with a large scale retrace move. Just as with the US large caps, after the stop and turn up there was a sharp retrace drop to the Fib 76/78% zone before the current rally.  As the FTSE was in out of hours at the end of the week this market has not rallied as hard as the US markets.  Also we may yet see fresh ATHs on US large caps while the FTSE100 only puts in a counter trend rally. If we do see fresh ATHs on US large caps and only a retrace on FTSE and probably Dax and Nikkei as well then comparing these markets will be instructive for calling that top on US large caps.  We may, alternatively, see only a retrace on US large caps too if the top of the market in already in. Conclusion: we can anticipate a bullish period on all major indices BUT should guard against a quick reversal on FTSE 100 that would set up scenario #2.  Either way this market looks to have topped out so the coming months though to the Autumn will be critical to deciding things on all indices, and likely quite a few other markets. I am Long the FTSE 100, coincident with my Dow Longs and will swing this up for now but my bearish bias for the long term will keep we watchful for a break down of this rally and I will not be pyramiding this one, far too risky until things are resolved.
    • "....more broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet" Actually I'd argue we have had currency wars for some years already. History shows it goes in the following order: Currency war, Trade war, War. (Regrettably).  If I recall correctly the market falls of early 2015 (about 20% down) were blamed on Yuan being devalued by Chinese manipulation. Way before Trump! "....we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero" Again I'd say that has been going on for some years. Arguably you could say about 35 years since the Plaza Accord. Once fiat became unaccountable (no gold standard) the politicians proceeded to spend, spend spend =debt,debt,debt. Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein. Again history says these currencies will all eventually disappear, like species, approx 95% no longer exist.  Broadly I agree with what you say. The present financial system is critically sick that's for sure. It has propped up assets with huge doses of QE and zero rate interest policy (expect more of that when the ECB meets next month). You are correct about the size of stock markets. If the global market was a horse the bond market would be three legs of it! I digress.... However, if you are faced with massive debts then here are your options: 1) Default - Argentinian/Zimbabwe style. Not likely, at least until all other options tried - as that's the end game. 2) Grow the economy at a fast enough rate to meet and exceed future repayment obligations. In a global low anaemic growth environment? Unlikely. 3) Inflate like mad. It's the only viable option. You could, reasonably say, that after 3 massive QE sessions and ZIRP and now  NIRP that deflation is winning. Arguably it's all been a waste of time / money. Where's the kitchen sink? Presumably more of the same and then some helicopter money? It seems to me that this is more in line with Japan (targeted 10yr bond rate = 0%) which someone said in the 90s was  "...the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event". Trying to get inflation without destroying the USD global reserve status is unlikely in my opinion and you can't help but feel that some sort of Bretton Woods global RESET will eventually emerge. It's certainly what Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey etc are angling for.....and their central banks have been big buyers of bullion recently. That's why I'd recommend holding gold. Not as a trading strategy (which is what I appreciate this forum is). Nice sharing these thoughts with you>
    • So it looks like my crazy set of channels on the Daily chart is still holding well.  The breakout of the last channel line, which coincides with a nice zone of lateral S/R was retested but failed as I noted in my previous post.  I got Short off an initial rejection from this zone and Resistance line with a tight stop but price never came back so nicely in on a couple of Short positions and stop protected at BE.  Price moved back through the monthly lower channel line (purple) and put in a quick daily candle failed retest and dropped away.  It is possible we could see another retest of this resistance zone before any further move but a break below the 5760 level would be indicative that the Bear has resumed and obviously a break of the previous low around the $56 mark would once again bring $50 into focus.  
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