Jump to content

Gold


Guest kobusk

Recommended Posts

Guest kobusk

Gold, according to the incomplete structure is still in "buy the pullbacks" territory short term. The market clearly broke out higher from a triangle and my minimum target is still $1481. I do see any price below $1400 as opportunities to get into longs and I will stay with this bullish view unless $1346 fails. I will only change to a bearish bias below $1265

2019-05-13_2237.png

2019-06-20_0619.png

2019-07-02_0849.png

Link to comment

Classic EWT analysis @kobusk and concur with a lot of it.  Looks very similar to something I saw elsewhere...

However I have a few additional perspectives for you as follows (note I like to mix EWT with other techniques as I find no single technique is sufficient to capture all the nuances of a market):

  • I do not see why the move down to Dec 2015 is a wave A rather than simply a counter trend rally (A-B-C). which you have too but have called it a large A.  This move ended at the Fib 50%, classic counter trend retrace end point.
  • While the wedge you have was broken the overhanging long term resistance was not (1440).  This must be firmly and conclusively broken (close above and with conviction) for the breakout to be on for me.
  • That A-E wedge classically should have the E hit the lower line or it could be negated (i.e. spurious)
  • I have an alternative EWT labeling for the move since the Dec turn that is the beginning of a longer motive rally that will carry beyond the previous ATHs.  This also does not rely on the wedge formation.
  • The COT for non commercials is too high in my opinion for a rally breakout (commercials, smart money, are net Short heavily).  I trade with the Commercials side on things like Gold (that said I am not shorting, better opportunities elsewhere at present).
  • I would not be Bearish Gold unless it breaks below the LT supporting trend line (circa 1250 minimum) but in that eventuality there would be other more lucrative markets to consider so I will never short Gold.
  • The fundamentals don't really support the larger A-B-C, unless you believe the Central Bank bull will continue for many years to come or this time it is different?  Even then it is a stretch at this point to paint such a picture, albeit still technically possible.  At present I see Gold as breakout to the upside for sure but am not sure it has happened yet.
  • The Russia/China central bank buying spree on Gold theory may be a valid reason for the current rally but for a sustained rally we need a recession, or more likely a deflationary recession, to prompt the safe haven trade.  Not sure we are there quite yet.

I see 3 scenarios:

  1. Gold breaks out from here but I favour a motive wave rather than a B scenario
  2. Gold retraces to the wedge you have for a retest and then either rallies away for that breakout or,
  3. The market carries on into the wedge, negating it, and completes a wave 2 retrace to close a gap (circa 1260) and then rallies.

 

XAUUSD-Monthly_020719.thumb.png.cb64a1cb916d4635ef0aabc6e2a49372.png

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,200
    • Total Posts
      90,740
    • Total Members
      41,311
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    richreed2426
    Joined 31/01/23 09:02
  • Posts

    • Asian markets registered small losses overnight as investors turned increasingly cautious ahead of this week's crop of big events. Despite the rally in risk assets since October, sentiment remains fragile thanks to ongoing recession fears, with an elevated risk of a short-term pullback at least should the overall view gleaned from this week's events turn out to be a negative one. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory for December, reflecting the reopening of the economy and providing sentiment with some near-term support. Fears of ongoing high inflation readings have subsided thanks to the slump in gas prices and falling oil prices, with the latter hit yesterday by signs of strong Russian exports and concerns that OPEC+ will leave output levels unchanged. In earnings reports, today sees AMD, McDonald's and Exxon release earnings, while we also get German and eurozone GDP, plus US consumer confidence. The expected German inflation data has been moved back to next week due to 'technical issues'.   
    • For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: IMF raises global growth forecasts, but confirms UK is in recession. China and India combined will drive more than 50% of global growth  Indices: European equity markets to open down - reality bites as traders accept that rates continue to climb as inflation remains high. AUD down as Aussie retail sales down. EU GDP data today  FX: USD is now on its longest upward streak since October last year as Fed starts its two day rate meeting where rates are expected to climb 25bps Equities: Earnings – good numbers from UBS. Later today - PFE XOM GM CAT AMD MCD UPS SNAP Commods: Gold down for a 4th day in a row as USD strengthens. Oil at 3wk lows. Copper 2wk lows       
    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 31 January 23, Bitcoin / U.S.dollar(BTCUSD) BTCUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Follow trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((3)) Direction Next higher Degrees: wave I of Motive Wave Cancel invalid level: 18475 Bitcoin / U.S.dollar(BTCUSD) Trading Strategy: Bitcoin in the daily chart is likely to correct after passing the 2.618 wave target ((1)) with a chance to retest the MA200 line and the same level as the wave retracement ((4)) if sustained. It is a good signal to start another upward trend in waves ((5)). Bitcoin / U.S.dollar(BTCUSD) Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200, indicating an Uptrend. The wave oscillators above Zero-Line Bullish momentum. TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!       Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 31 January 23, Bitcoin / U.S.dollar(BTCUSD) BTCUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Follow trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((3)) Direction Next higher Degrees: wave I of Motive Wave Cancel invalid level: 18475 Bitcoin / U.S.dollar(BTCUSD) Trading Strategy: Bitcoin in the daily chart is likely to correct after passing the 2.618 wave target ((1)) with a chance to retest the MA200 line and the same level as the wave retracement ((4)) if sustained. It is a good signal to start another upward trend in waves ((5)). Bitcoin / U.S.dollar(BTCUSD) Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200, indicating an uptrend. The wave oscillators have Bearish divergence watch out Revers.  
×
×
  • Create New...