Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Dow Jones (Wallstreet)

Recommended Posts

Hi All,

Dow Jones (Walstreet) trading as I write here at 26,845, for how long in your opinion it's gonna stay that high.

I'm just asking for bets, week, month, 3 months.

Just can't wait for correction ;-), is anyone else?

Share this post


Link to post

@aquarius,

I have absolutely no idea how long it will stay that high. No doubt Trump will do everything he can to ensure the news flow supports the US stock market.

I do think there will be an almighty correction but I think it will take a significant piece of political and economic news that at the same time causes Bonds and Gold to rise and equities to take a downturn. Something like a recessionary phase or bad data being released by the US government, war, etc.

Risk will need to change from Risk on to Risk off.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Guest Bojk

More than 70% are on short positions including mine. This is not a good sign omg... >.<"

Share this post


Link to post
1 hour ago, Guest Bojk said:

More than 70% are on short positions including mine. This is not a good sign omg... >.<"

It's just waiting game now, but clearly it went further then I predicted. The most important is to keep on it.

I would feel more worried if I would go long on this.

Share this post


Link to post

@aquarius,

Those 70% are going against the direction of the trend. They are also likely to be sitting on losses depending on when they initiated their 'short' position. 

I cannot see any signal / indication of a trend reversal so it would be interesting to know what their reason is for actually opening a 'short' position. On what basis? It is not as if there is a clear downtrend in play!

What is their trading style? Go short and hope the asset drops in price!

Share this post


Link to post
1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

@aquarius,

Those 70% are going against the direction of the trend. They are also likely to be sitting on losses depending on when they initiated their 'short' position. 

I cannot see any signal / indication of a trend reversal so it would be interesting to know what their reason is for actually opening a 'short' position. On what basis? It is not as if there is a clear downtrend in play!

What is their trading style? Go short and hope the asset drops in price!

Well, short term you are right they are sitting on some small losses, but fewer people nowadays daily trades and worry about couple hundred points. The logic is, if the market hits top of its own game, shorting it is a very safe position.

I'm not the right person to converse with about trends, signals and indicators, as for me any attempt to predict huge transactions of smart money is complete absurd.

You only need couple of big trading desks cashing in on their share value at today's prices and the "historical high",

is exactly that.

Share this post


Link to post

@aquarius,

If traders have applied aggressive leverage then couple of hundred points could be an absolute killer! Especially if they do not apply stop losses and use effective risk management.

You state that if the market hits the top of its game then shorting it is a very safe position. Anyone who follows 'Trend Following' principles will tell you that when the price starts making new highs or new 52 week highs then it is an extremely bullish indicator and the sign of a strong trend so one would trade in the direction of the trend and never against it as the 'Odds and Probability' would be against you. Now I am not suggesting that the trend cannot reverse at this point, of course it can but the odds and probability would be against you if you decide to initiate a trade against the strong direction it is moving in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Posted (edited)

@TrendFollower

I'm always prepared to be wrong, but if everyone is positive I'm negative and vice versa, that's just me.

I just look back Jan 2018 and then Oct 2018 as a reminder and remember having similar argument then.

Now, for daily trader 'Trend Following' is probably the best option, and yes if I had time looking at the screen 24h a day, yes, yes and yes and I did it before. Unfortunately, I need to look further ahead now, so I'm trying to be prepared to be wrong for a while up to 400 to 500 points.

This allows me to spend less time looking at the screen and still have some fun.

Stop loss for me is a tool to feed the broker.

Edited by aquarius

Share this post


Link to post

@aquarius,

One of the beauties of following 'Trend Following' principles is that you do not have to look at the screen 24 hours a day. 

If you are prepared to be wrong for a while up to 400 to 500 points, is that with leverage? How much £ or $ per point? Would it not be a more effective use of capital if you waited for the trend to at least begin to weaken / turn before placing your trade? There is nothing wrong with looking ahead. It is called being proactive. That is fine. 

In my personal opinion trading without a 'Trading Plan', 'Trading Strategy' and 'Trading System' is trading suicide. It is more like betting and gambling which is relying on 'Hope' and 'Luck' which are two swear words in my trading dictionary. 

Share this post


Link to post

@TrendFollower

It was lovely to wake up this morning and see that the trend direction changed.

I spend years learning Trading Plans, Trading Strategies and Trading Systems, this is all great for historical analysis.

You can always find a candle to shine some light on the past LOL.

But not many people look at the overall picture, when I read the analysts reasons for Bitcoin going up, it makes me lough.

No one took into account that Trump froze access to Banking for Iran. How else Iran would keep using their billions? Bitcoin!

 There is no Trading Plan which will predict peoples moves and decisions and in my opinion any believe in such a plan is a gamble.

Share this post


Link to post

@aquarius,

Trading plans are not there to make predictions. You may want to have a look at my thread Trading Plan by TrendFollower.

Share this post


Link to post
21 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

Those 70% are going against the direction of the trend. They are also likely to be sitting on losses depending on when they initiated their 'short' position. 

I cannot see any signal / indication of a trend reversal so it would be interesting to know what their reason is for actually opening a 'short' position. On what basis? It is not as if there is a clear downtrend in play!

What is their trading style? Go short and hope the asset drops in price!

@TrendFollower

Yet again you are disrespecting people because you don't understand their system, as I pointed out to you in the Gold thread this morning  (just before it fell through the floor) going short at resistance is a valid strategy, the same is true for wall st. Many traders will sell resistance and buy support especially at the top/bottom of a range or channel. The recent ATH on wall st. was a clear resistance level and very likely to be sold off and a valid strategy, indicator or signal to go short for a swing trader  (the proof of which you have witnessed today). If wall st falls to 23350ish that would be a great swing trade if it makes a sharp turn back up and continues to rally then the trend trader wins, for now we have to wait and see but trend following not always the best and certainly is not the only strategy to trade, so please stop disrespecting other people just because they aren't trend followers.

 DJI Monthly, Range from 2017us30-mn1-ig-group-limited.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

@Foxy,

First of all I am not disrespecting anyone. Secondly @aquarius has not explained his system. I was discussing with Aquarius and it was a discussion between the two of us. Have I ever asked you or Aquarius to following trend following in this specific thread? No. 

Where as you have articulated your trading thoughts Aquarius had not. This is the point I was making. You are reading something else into it so I suggest you look at this thread from start to finish and just have a think before jumping the gun or making assumptions.

I am not suggesting Trend Following is the best. It is just my trading strategy which I adopt. There are many ways to skin a cat. There are many different trading styles and methodologies that one can adopt. I am not specifically referring to Aquarius here but I have come across several on the IG Community who just have no trading system at all and really are just betting and gambling. 

I suggest you read this thread and then your unprofessional comments towards me. If you do not agree with me that is fine. We can all disagree professionally and politely. 

Just like I can be wrong many times the same applies to you. Just like my trading system will deliver losses, no doubt yours will too. I have merely offered my thoughts from a trend following perspective. You can offer a differing view from your trading perspective. What you cannot say is that I cannot share my trading thoughts from a trend following perspective but you can offer your trading thoughts from your trading perspective. 

Share this post


Link to post

DOW Weekly line chart

Broken out of a 18 months consolidation 

Cant see where they will find the fuel to make this rally continue, but that has never stopped them before😏

Could be a false breakout and back in the consolidation?

The key area will be 26 600-26 700 and a retest of the breakout, then its make or break?

 

 

DOW Weekly.png

Share this post


Link to post

You will be amazed at how the US Government and Trump's team can control the news flow so that it is released to the world when they want it to be.

This will drive the markets going forwards depending on whether it is positive or negative news. News can be created in the sense of 'propaganda' or 'marketing spin' or what ever you want to call it. Sometimes old news rehashed. Sometimes stories such as US-China trade war just lingering and lingering in the background without any conclusion. This can all have an impact on the direction the market travels in.

Share this post


Link to post

Nice little chart of the Dow. 👿

 

DJI-1-minute.png

Share this post


Link to post

The most likely outcome is that it will go up and down or down and up, or vice versa, in rapid and random alternation.

Share this post


Link to post
3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The most likely outcome is that it will go up and down or down and up, or vice versa, in rapid and random alternation.

@dmedin

Yes I expect it will for around 2 or 3 hours but at 17:00 or so it should settle down, and between 17:00 and 19:00 it may be possible to pick a side. It could even be last hour but that doesn't matter so long as support holds I will be looking for a long position. If not I will start again tomorrow probably look for support at a new low. 👿

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
On 18/07/2019 at 12:03, Kodiak said:

DOW Weekly line chart

Broken out of a 18 months consolidation 

Cant see where they will find the fuel to make this rally continue, but that has never stopped them before😏

Could be a false breakout and back in the consolidation?

The key area will be 26 600-26 700 and a retest of the breakout, then its make or break?

 

 

DOW Weekly.png

Remind me of Ikaros 

US30Weekly 5.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,257
    • Total Posts
      35,995
    • Total Members
      46,008
    Newest Member
    b3t0rd4nu
    Joined 20/08/19 20:51
  • Posts

    • I'm obviously just too stupid to understand what volatility is. Reuters has this to say about GDP/USD: Soft Brexit tones make pair susceptible to flash moves higher owing to thin summer liquidity. (PS/PAS) But nobody bothers to look at volume. A nice wee flash is a brilliant way to shake off all the bottom feeding retail clients with their pathetically tight stops.
    • just need to know which order type to use so that my stock wont expire as i plan to hold it for a long time,  any feedback would be appreciated, thankyou 
    • I'm sorry but I cannot rise to that bait. No comment
×
×