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Greggs: the awesome power of a vegan butty


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@dmedin I know this is too late as the market is now closed but looking at your RSI indicator, this afternoon did look like a good time to short ready for next week.

at quite a point here  - there was a lot of interest here earlier in the year

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16 point spread on the IG platform.

Must be one of those 'too good to miss' BUYS.  The only way is up!  (Till the next flash crash stops you out and takes your money before carrying on ...)

2802 is the 161% target and might be worth a shot with a stop beneath the 100% level (2400) :)

Edited by dmedin
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Could be the beginning of a good short brewing if we get a daily close beneath 2402.  Going to have to redraw the Fibonacci so that it 'snaps' with the high at around 2500.

1138201886_GreggsPLC_20190718_10_46.thumb.png.579ada28d0a04c0b8fcd70adb7534b80.png

Edited by dmedin
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On 19/07/2019 at 17:42, Nelsy-Boy said:

@dmedin I know this is too late as the market is now closed but looking at your RSI indicator, this afternoon did look like a good time to short ready for next week.

 

It has been said that one should only use overbought readings in an uptrend as an excuse to liquidate existing long positions (take profit), not to initiate new shorts.  However ... it's also been said that big long bull markets are often followed by a 33 - 50% correction and I think Greggs is done for one of those.

Edited by dmedin
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48 minutes ago, dmedin said:

So, how far will Greggs drop?

1089319926_GreggsPLC_20190723_09_21.thumb.png.7d4b037f2b87601d69b3202ae66d0dca.png

Looks like the bulls are trying get a bounce up off the recent low after the gap down around 2416 which is a 50% retracement from that last impulse move, though by the last white volume candle they are having to fight for it.

696432498_GreggsPLC_20190723_10_14.thumb.png.6f4e36a92f662a78800c3b6507d4402c.png

 

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I seem to have been fortunate and caught a wave down.  There isn't much volume so it could gap up, so I've a stop near 2500.  Even a shallow retracement (23.8%) will give a REALLY nice R:R payoff.

GRG-Weekly.thumb.png.f1b66ad3234baf8f0b1216972dc897b2.png

GRG-Daily.thumb.png.e17308023ef0092cf5f1ca6b03d51273.png

 

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45 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I seem to have been fortunate and caught a wave down.  There isn't much volume so it could gap up, so I've a stop near 2500.  Even a shallow retracement (23.8%) will give a REALLY nice R:R payoff.

@dmedin

Here's my H1 if it helps. 👿

 

GRG-1-hour.png

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Crikey, Greggs reports earnings next week.  Seems like just yesterday when it last reported its earnings.  I still think it's on a wave down but I should probably get out asap until after the earnings are reported. 

 

GRG-4-hours.png

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I had to close out at a small loss, can't bear the thought of keeping a position open when earnings is released.  But hopefully it will be clear which way to go at about 9am tomorrow 🤓

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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Company reports good earnings, share price drops precipitously.  :D

but were they as good as expectations? it''s expectations that get price into the market and if the data disappoints bets come off. 

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Looking at the daily chart since the beginning of July, the market started to pave the way for a drop. Quite a bit of divergence in both the RSI and Stochastic. Does anyone think the gap up in May is likely to be filled in the coming months?

Greggs PLC_20190730_20.08.png

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I remain hopeful that it will fall further in order to 'converge' with its 200 day SMA (regression to the mean?)  At that point we will think about going long and holding 😺

 

Again my timing is pretty bad!

Greggs PLC_20190808_10.01.png

Edited by dmedin
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It's still snaking its way down.  When it bounces off (rather than breaking through) the short-term MAs then I feel better about being short; the 'proper' daily MAs still suggest it's coming down.

1198591314_GreggsPLC_20190809_12_22.thumb.png.bece7a3d54140bc89cd2f8ae9f65e8f9.png

 

The daily MAs also look like the price will fall a bit more - 10 is sharply negative and 50 is flattening out.  There is a wide gap between 50 and 200.

Also: the bid/offer spread is still enormous.

1502964462_GreggsPLC_20190809_12_23.thumb.png.1dc420aac4855bda553c2ef4bfd0ee15.png

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