Greggs: the awesome power of a vegan butty

[dmedin]

Apparently this is all driven by sales of a vegetarian sandwich.

[dmedin]

Will be a good opportunity to short at some point. 

 

[dmedin]

Rational markets?  🐮

[dmedin]

16 point spread on the IG platform.

Must be one of those 'too good to miss' BUYS.  The only way is up!  (Till the next flash crash stops you out and takes your money before carrying on ...)

2802 is the 161% target and might be worth a shot with a stop beneath the 100% level (2400)

Edited July 17, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Could be the beginning of a good short brewing if we get a daily close beneath 2402.  Going to have to redraw the Fibonacci so that it 'snaps' with the high at around 2500.

Edited July 18, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

A nice little 33 - 50% correction would be awesome, if 2495 is not broken in the next few days 😎

[dmedin]

We are girding up our loins to fight the goodly fight for a second attempt at 2500 and if we fail, could be a good time for a short with a stop just above 2500! 😺

[Nelsy-Boy]

@dmedin I know this is too late as the market is now closed but looking at your RSI indicator, this afternoon did look like a good time to short ready for next week.

[dmedin]

On 19/07/2019 at 17:42, Nelsy-Boy said:

@dmedin I know this is too late as the market is now closed but looking at your RSI indicator, this afternoon did look like a good time to short ready for next week.

 

It has been said that one should only use overbought readings in an uptrend as an excuse to liquidate existing long positions (take profit), not to initiate new shorts.  However ... it's also been said that big long bull markets are often followed by a 33 - 50% correction and I think Greggs is done for one of those.

Edited July 21, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

So, how far will Greggs drop?

[Caseynotes]

48 minutes ago, dmedin said:

So, how far will Greggs drop?

Looks like the bulls are trying get a bounce up off the recent low after the gap down around 2416 which is a 50% retracement from that last impulse move, though by the last white volume candle they are having to fight for it.

 

[dmedin]

I seem to have been fortunate and caught a wave down.  There isn't much volume so it could gap up, so I've a stop near 2500.  Even a shallow retracement (23.8%) will give a REALLY nice R:R payoff.

 

[WallStFoxy]

45 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I seem to have been fortunate and caught a wave down.  There isn't much volume so it could gap up, so I've a stop near 2500.  Even a shallow retracement (23.8%) will give a REALLY nice R:R payoff.

@dmedin

Here's my H1 if it helps. 👿

 

[dmedin]

Crikey, Greggs reports earnings next week.  Seems like just yesterday when it last reported its earnings.  I still think it's on a wave down but I should probably get out asap until after the earnings are reported. 

 

[dmedin]

I had to close out at a small loss, can't bear the thought of keeping a position open when earnings is released.  But hopefully it will be clear which way to go at about 9am tomorrow 🤓

[dmedin]

Cripes! 🙈

[dmedin]

Company reports good earnings, share price drops precipitously. 

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Company reports good earnings, share price drops precipitously. 

but were they as good as expectations? it''s expectations that get price into the market and if the data disappoints bets come off. 

[Nelsy-Boy]

Looking at the daily chart since the beginning of July, the market started to pave the way for a drop. Quite a bit of divergence in both the RSI and Stochastic. Does anyone think the gap up in May is likely to be filled in the coming months?

[dmedin]

How low can the yummy non-bacon buttie go, Jo?

[dmedin]

Will it pull back to the 200-day SMA (40 week)?

[dmedin]

That big green line is the target. 

 

[JamesIG]

A few quick bullet points from us https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/greggs-share-price--4-things-we-learnt-from-its-half-year-result-190731 

[dmedin]

Still got a bit further to drop, until it realizes its 'fundamental value'?  Notice my extremely poor timing here.

Edited August 5, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

I wonder how much further it has to fall.  The spread is still unusually (?) large (buy is 14 points more than sell)

[dmedin]

I remain hopeful that it will fall further in order to 'converge' with its 200 day SMA (regression to the mean?)  At that point we will think about going long and holding 😺

 

Again my timing is pretty bad!

Edited August 8, 2019 by dmedin

[Nelsy-Boy]

@dmedin don't forget the gap on the daily chart around 1804. Looks like their is a good chance it will reach that. Least I hope it does.

[dmedin]

It's still snaking its way down.  When it bounces off (rather than breaking through) the short-term MAs then I feel better about being short; the 'proper' daily MAs still suggest it's coming down.

 

The daily MAs also look like the price will fall a bit more - 10 is sharply negative and 50 is flattening out.  There is a wide gap between 50 and 200.

Also: the bid/offer spread is still enormous.

[dmedin]

I think the drop could be coming to an end ...

[Caseynotes]

41 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I think the drop could be coming to an end ...

For a daily chart choose a higher level pivot, the monthly here is quite interesting.