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I loooove hindsight!

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Hindsight could make me rich!  Look how easy it is to trade when you see the completed pattern in front of you!

1749205935_US500_20190808_17_10.thumb.png.c49f96e9d59742b60f4edbea67a276dd.png

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OK but can you learn from it?  It is all well and good seeing where history tells you you should have made a trade but was there a way to get sufficient indicators to actually trade it?  This is where you need a methodology to provide insights into where in the cycle a market is and where the breakouts might occur.  There are several different methods on display on the forum and a wealth of information available to research and practice, isn't this what you need to do?

I am always amazed that the majority of people come into this with no training and no study months put in.  Is there any other field of endeavor where people would expect to succeed without training and practice?  And by the way I include myself in that group as that was exactly what I did at first too.  Cost me a lot to learn the hard way...

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Posted (edited)

@Mercury

Where is the sense and methodology in a market that drops 5 - 6% after a Donald Trump tweet and then recoups 100% of its losses and then some in the space of three days?

The answer is no, I can't really - because whether or not the price will follow the indicators is uncertain.  All I can do is limit the amount that I might lose.

Edited by dmedin

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Ah well there is one area we differ @dmedin.  I don't care what Trump, or anyone else tweets not why the market participants chose to send the market down and then back up.  I just care that it follows my road map and triggers my trading set ups, which it did, both ways.  I chose to make sense of the market through the use of technical analysis, which at its heart is about mapping human psychology acting within a crowd.  This is not new, the main elements were developed as much as a hundred years ago and still work today because people have not changed.  They say the market has memory.  That isn't really accurate.  What is really happening is that market participants (humans) are reacting to similar sets of circumstances in similar ways - Fear and Greed; Greed and Fear never-ending.

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@dmedin,

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. To understand why the price moved after it has moved is what makes hindsight interesting. There are a lot of traders who may have 'hindsight bias'. So this is where they perceive that the price action was more predictable based on technical analysis and charts before the price moves the way it does. Now some of these traders will share this after the event has occurred (We can all do that). Some better traders will predict prices before the events but predictions can be both right and wrong. 

I make a lot of price assumptions, predictions and forecasts. Some are right and some are wrong. Some are based on fundamentals, some are based on technicals and some are based on 'gut instincts' and 'feelings'.

The key is to have a trading methodology that can help you to make assumptions, predictions and forecasts based on the signals / indicators you choose to put the odds and probability more in your favour in terms of which direction the trend is going to take and which trades are more likely than not to go in your favour than not. Trading is all about using the data and tools at our disposable to make these accurate assumptions, predictions and forecasts as we are trading in real time basing our trading decisions on future price action and what we think is more likely to happen than not. 

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Lo and behold, it's come all the way back up again :D

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7 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

@dmedin,

 

The key is to have a trading methodology that can help you to make assumptions, predictions and forecasts based on the signals / indicators you choose to put the odds and probability more in your favour in terms of which direction the trend is going to take and which trades are more likely than not to go in your favour than not. Trading is all about using the data and tools at our disposable to make these accurate assumptions, predictions and forecasts as we are trading in real time basing our trading decisions on future price action and what we think is more likely to happen than not. 

 

 

I have been trying since September last year and have not found a single method that can be consistently profitable on any time frame in any market ...

Probably time to quit and stick to 2% saving accounts.  That's better than losing thousands of pounds :D

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Posted (edited)

Heiken-Ashi!  Revealing my rubbish timing!  Second red bar after the last green one would have been a safe entry point to go short!

1070080037_US500_20190809_16_27.thumb.png.58b8173b6dfdf2132f57040160ccf77d.png

Edited by dmedin

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Posted (edited)

I was anticipating the spike of the FTSe Yesterday.  Went up in two stages.  I marked where I would have placed at both points.  At the end of the day, I'd have pocketed £200.

So i figured, OK, I was right on those 2, I'll get on board.  Now I figured, it was due a pull back after those 2 ups, but went against my gut to Follow The Trend.

Went down lolololol.  -£23.

So now today, watching Uber and FTSE.  Figured both going down.  put them side by side and figured i'd go with Uber, but marked my short of the FTSE.

Uber went up and cost me £13, and FTSE went south...would have pocekted £85 lololololololol.

I can't win.

Even when I'm right I'm wrong!

Edited by nit2wynit
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@dmedin,

Try using the 'daily' timeframe and have a look at my Trend Following thread from start to finish and see if you think it could help you. You have nothing to lose and you may pick up some small snippets here and there.

👍

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If you like Heiken Ashi hindsight you'll really like Renko hindsight.

This is a MeanRenko chart (sort of a Renko/HA crossover) of that 5 minute 500 point drop on BTC yesterday.

10 point Renko blocks with WPR obos exit arrows and a 120 Hull MA.

image.thumb.png.c654d7c41d2558cde91af101c929e86f.png

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Jaunty Jackanape!  If you'd entered a short trade here (or the one before) you would have made several hundred points.  :(

1961540598_FTSE100_20190813_11_38.thumb.png.c1549af9c58439021b43dee343cbf702.png

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