Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

AUDUSD pin bar rally signal?

Recommended Posts

Will USD rally or drop?  That seems to be the battle ground right now on FX.  The trend is with USD but if the trend is turning then we need to see signals of this across multiple pairs with the USD.  The Chinese devalued the Yuan vs USD recently, allegedly as a trade war ploy but maybe there is a deeper need for the Chinese economy (still chiefly an export of manufactured good led economy despite some commentators trying to tell us it has turned internal consumer led, like Western economies) to keep its currency low vs its main customers.  Could the trade war/negotiations be merely a vehicle for the Chinese to get air cover for their manipulations?   Maybe this action had a knock on effect on USd pairs as USD got a boost but if that is over now then we should be seeing reversal signals.  Perhaps this is the bigger macro event and not relatively tiny issues like Brexit..? 

On AUDUSD I think we may have one of those signals but first let's look at the macro backdrop.  On the weekly chart we can see that this pair broke a long term consolidation channel, possible a Pennant (have to look at the Monthly or Quarterly to see it) and we got a bearish phase since then but of later we may have seen a pin bar reversal on strong PMD with oscillators over sold.  The long term trend is bearish but before things really meltdown we are likely to see a bullish counter trend rally.  That pin bar is clearer on the daily chart and currently we are seeing a small scale reversal that may be a 1-2 retrace down before a larger rally.  If we look at the 1H chart we can see that 1-2 more closely and the whole move looks like a V shaped reversal pattern, which, if we get a rally back and price breakout out of the resistance at the top of the V, we may well see a strong rally away.  Currently price is tracing an A-B-C and has been stopped at the Fib 50%.  Could make it down to the 62% yet but in any case we are looking for a break of the overhead resistance.  Ideally I would like to see other USD pairs moving the same way. 

AUDUSD-Weekly_120819.thumb.png.5d08480bcf269220f8359945313843c9.pngAUDUSD-Daily_120819.thumb.png.2a3e67cc943733b40954ad84fb10cc42.pngAUDUSD-1-hour_120819.thumb.png.4d1967ed8ef4c12eb589c469580c1cc5.png 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Another market that put in a very deep 1-2 (brown) retrace to the Fib 88% and then rallied hard, thus creating the V-Bottom I referenced above.  The breakout was a Long opportunity but I feel like this market is due another, smaller, 1-2 retrace, as with other FX pairs, and we may set a retest of the breakout support/resistance zone before the really really takes off.  A breakout of the medium term Triangle line is critical to signal the retrace moved is fully on and then I will be looking for a large scale A-B-C to conclude before the mega USD rally takes place.

AUDUSD-Daily_140919.thumb.png.af383fafd0ee225fc178638ce5e50c5b.png

Share this post


Link to post

similar to the EURUSD channel    - target here is 0.60000

Capture au.PNG

Share this post


Link to post

Looks like the AUDUSD is also turning up.  The potential wave 1 (blue) occurred on strong PMD and at a daily chart supporting trend line (see Sept 14 post above).  The rally and retrace went to the Fib 62% and then bounced away.  There is an unclosed gap near the short term resistance, which I expect to be closed immanently and then we will see if a test of the resistance leads to a breakout.  I am already Long off both recent turns and holding for the breakout.

AUDUSD-1-hour_101019.thumb.png.5f882904d1ebf91e752dceac5645aeca.png 

Share this post


Link to post

While the Euro and the GBP are in stasis, the latter unsurprisingly given the strong move yesterday. AUDUSD seems to be staging a breakout with a higher high this morning.  There is still plenty of resistance to get through but the signs are promising for a string rally phase.  I would like to see a break of the 6830 area and then a test on the upper daily channel line.  A break of the latter will surely confirm a bullish phase.

On the Daily chart you can see the channel, forming a Triangle with 3 solid rejections on both the bottom and top lines.  The final wave down was in a 1-5 that culminated with an effective double bottom and PMD.  The turn has been backed up by a 1-2 retrace to the FIb 62%.   On the 4H chart you can see an additional ending channel that was broken and then price put in a failed retest of this channel line before rallying away.  We now have a slightly higher high than the wave 1 (brown),  and strong rally price action, which is suggestive of a wave 3.  Should at least test the upper daily channel line, if not break out.

AUDUSD-Daily_111019.thumb.png.cb31f2b1c31b0db09a76e5994f926873.pngAUDUSD-4-hours_111019.thumb.png.de47ec1d427fe7996ad76bd4a0408366.png

Share this post


Link to post

Since my last post on the breakout of a small channel formation after a potential wave 1 (blue) turn into a rally this market has been in a nice steady rally phase with what looks like a 1-2 retracement put in to prime a longer rally phase.  This seems to have kicked off in advance of the Fed, almost as if the AUD traders knew something...  Now price is touching on the medium term daily chart resistance trend line.  A breakout here will produce a much stronger and longer rally phase I feel.

AUDUSD-Daily_311019.thumb.png.04d1fe8954850b3c704fc8da0c2aea11.png

Share this post


Link to post

Similarly to EURUSD AUDUSD looks to be in a bearish retrace at present.  Interestingly this one strikes me as a clearer case for a deeper retrace, which if the pairs are aligned suggests scenario 1 for the EURUSD, a retrace to the 11,000 level (see separate thread).

On this pair I have a fairly decent a-5 up to a wave 1 (brown) at the daily resistance trend line and NMD at the turn.  If correct then I would not be surprised to see a retest of the Fib 50% support area, circa 6800, before the rally really gets going and a break of the daily trend line and the associated horizontal resistance zone, circa 6940 is crucial to the bulls. 

AUDUSD-4-hours_011119.thumb.png.5519a2be2a432480c46d1073fd7db13b.png

Share this post


Link to post

Daily chart resistance trend line remains unbreached with a couple of test failures over the past few days.  Remains to be seen whether price will make the journey all the way down to the lower line or turn at an intermediary support zone in a 1-2 retrace that primes a channel breaking rally.  Fib 50% looks favourite at present.

AUDUSD-Daily_041119.thumb.png.4291b7626b2d073b747d68b8e6609feb.png

Share this post


Link to post

In addition to the other USD pairs AUDUSD looks to have put in a retrace turn as well, right on the Fib 62% with PMD.  The rally is very strong and consistent with a wave 3 move.  The next important juncture will be a test of the down sloping channel resistance trend line.

AUDUSD-Daily_021219.thumb.png.81646e2636bcdacc351c1db326fcc81d.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,851
    • Total Posts
      41,382
    • Total Members
      51,698
    Newest Member
    Blueprint
    Joined 07/12/19 17:37
  • Posts

    • There is an interesting development in the price action for Copper as the chart below shows: Soybean is also looking interesting at the same time. Soybean Oil has been on a good run. I shall end this chart feast with Soybean Meal!  
    • told you he was good 🙂
    • Podcast interviewing Chris Weston, (previously of IG Australia). I haven't heard the whole thing yet but Chris is always worth a listen. I'm hoping he will talk about using implied volatility as described in the video of his posted in the Technical Analysis thread. https://futuresradioshow.com/podcast/286/
×
×