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Small Account Challenge aka Warrior Trading Strategy

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1 hour ago, DSchenk said:

From $500 to $39k, that's a juicy return right there

That's clearly unrealistic and given that 95 - 99% of all day traders are net losers, they would be lucky to end the year break-even.  Heck, they could put their cash into an S&P 500 ETF and make money doing absolutely nothing.

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On 28/12/2019 at 21:22, dmedin said:

That's clearly unrealistic and given that 95 - 99% of all day traders are net losers, they would be lucky to end the year break-even.  Heck, they could put their cash into an S&P 500 ETF and make money doing absolutely nothing.

@dmedin  Sigh!!!!!!!

you keep using this statistic to back up the negativity you now have in your bones.  You've been at this longer than me, but I know how you trade, and know how wrong it is.  

Here's your statistic in a nutshell:  10 people in a room with IG,  just started trading.  Never done it before.  Think it's easy.  Done very little by way of research or Live Trading.  Green as Grass.  This is 10 people!!  Now, take your losing statistic of 76%-90% or whatever it is.  That's 7-9 people who have No Clue how this works, and can't figure out why they keep losing.  But 2-3 people out of 10, have actually studied; have learned; know what they're doing and how the cogs turn.  If i went out into the street now and told 9 people about Spread betting, I would be the Top 10% of people who had a clue where the other 9 people would be dumb to the idea.  Here's an insight on people and life for you.  Most people are dumb.  Most of us don't know all that is needed to achieve success.  Most people are cattle.  Now simply apply this Cultural Societal Life Statistic to Spread Betting.  The figures match.  If you don't know how to do something, you will fail.  If you don't know why you're failing, you will continue to Fail!  That is the secret to success.

You don't have enough to play a long game!  You don't have enough insight even at some of the Candle patterns and colours, based upon the Q's you've brought up here.  @DSchenk has put you right a few times now with little to no acknowledgement from yourself when he's answered.  Daniel has even shown you why he's failed.  To be able to know why, provides the solution to success also.  With a few tweaks and a fresh look at what he was doing he has already improved his success rate and just as important, hit Loss rate.

@DSchenk Daniel, we're not here to fight the cause for trading breakouts.  There's enough time and energy needed to keep it going as it is.  Try not to allow yourself to become distracted by negativity.  We shouldn't be here to convince anyone of anything.  I've been talking about trading breakouts since I joined back in March.....Seems it's quite Alien to a lot of people.

Your chart postings and honest feedback are refreshing and insightful; keep it up.  This year will be our year. 

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9 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

Most people are dumb.  ...  Most people are cattle

 

This is what the bankers thought prior to the financial crisis.  They all got away with it, because of their powerful friends, their class power and their money.  You or I would not be so lucky.

If you mean that our present capitalist system TREATS people like they are cattle, TREATS people like they are stupid - then definitely yes. 

The same goes for that charlatan who claims to make thousands off his $500 deposit using a system only he knows how (interestingly, if you want to see him do his thing you have to pay for it and you probably also have to sign an NDA - I wonder why that is).  He considers all of his faithful follows as DUMB CATTLE too.  So let me do you a good turn, and perform a service to humanity by highlighting the fact that he is FULL OF SH!T.

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If TL;DR - the basic point is that trading ultra-short term is for LOSERS.

 

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18 hours ago, dmedin said:

If TL;DR - the basic point is that trading ultra-short term is for LOSERS.

 

I typed a reply but deleted it. 

You don't accept it!  I've got a lot of work to get on with to make this happen this year.  I'll accept your 'I told you So' at the end of 2020.

Next!.

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Ok guys, back in the driver's seat. Happy new year everyone!

Demo account charged back up to £500. Here we go. New year, new challenge.

Updating the rules a bit:

  • Starting capital: £500
  • Trading US open exclusively, that's 14.30 to about 15.30 UK time (At 16.00 I wanna be in the Gym, which is a good motivator to not trade longer than that :) )
  • Strategy
    • Focus on stocks which are between $0.1 and $20
    • Scan for gappers pre-market (Gap > 5%)
    • Scan for momentum during market (Momentum stocks are stocks which are up more than 10% on the day)
    • Max risk per day: 20% of account size (£100 initially)
    • Max risk per trade: 33% of daily risk (£33 initially)
    • Daily Target: 10% (£50 initially)
    • Winning trades % aim is 80% (4 out of 5 trades are winners)

 

The challenge is successful if the account size at the end of the month is above £1000. The challenge is also successful if the account size is between £500 and £1000, but the winning trades % is above 80%. (That shows the strategy works, just the £ gain is not as high as expected.)
If the challenge is successful, I'm going back to live.

Not going to post super detailed trade reviews, but will update here and then on how it goes. Hope to find someone who's joining in as well.

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Hi !

"The challenge is successful"...Which success ?  Do you turn your demo account a PS4 ? I am just trying to understand what the heck of it if the real market is anyway a different environment than the demo one ? You know your Stop loss won´t be hit in the demo whereas it will be in the real market...So...

This is NOT a critic. I just want to understand your motivation...Meanwhile it seems that you have fun, that is already good to see. So...Have fun, man !

 

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@Adam71 I see it this way: If you can't turn a profit in the demo, you won't turn one in live. So no need to go to live and burn through cash.

You are right, only because you are turning a profit in demo, doesn't necessarily mean you are able to do the same in live.

What do you suggest instead? Straight going onto live environment and burning through real cash there? Have done that, been there, don't want to do it again :D 

 

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Yesterday didn't quite work out for me btw. Been a bit rusty over the long break over christmas and new year :D 

Topped back up to £500 and starting to count from today.

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@DSchenk, For sure back testing in a Demo environment is a must, specially if you go the "Warrior way"  (I like the approach)...It is just that in the real word, a Warrior also...dies. You know you won´t be able to apply your high risks on a daily basis: a serie of loosers and bang ! You´re out and at the best you are so small that you will have to refund again!..I doubt any strategy can survive an high risk on a daily basis.

Now they are different types of warriors. The snipper is one of them...I am trying this, see below, from time 4:20...

Still trying...Have fun man !

 

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@DSchenk, I have posted the wrong episode, sorry...see episode 2 from time 4:20...

 

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I know this guy / youtube series. Makes sense to me. As always, there are different approaches and strategies to this. Almost any strategy which delivers some sort of edge vs the market works, if the trader is able to stick to it and see it through and doesn't fall victim to FOMO, etc.

Traders always like to discuss if risk-reward ratios of 1:1 or 1:2 are better or if you need a 50% win rate or 75%.
I always like to think, these details won't matter as long as the strategy is built around it in a sensible way.
Of course working with 1:1 risk-reward and a 25% win rate won't work, that's clear. But if you do 1:1 and 70% win rate or 1:2 and 50% win rate or even 2:1 with a 85% win rate, doesn't matter one bit as long as it works for you.

Too many traders always seem to get hooked up to one specific detail of a comprehensive strategy and then try to box through that detail, no matter what and in the end fail, cause they failed to see the bigger picture.

 

Anyway, yesterday was a solid day. Had over 70% win rate on a handful of trades. Daily goal of £50 hit.
Let's see what today brings.

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Hi @DSchenk,

So how is your account looking like now, after 1 month ?...From my FX trading side, risking 10% on each trade, I lost 44% of my capital with 26% lost due to stupid greedy positions opened out of any strategy....So I refound 26% and hope to control that Greed from now. Let´s see what February brings...

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11 hours ago, Adam71 said:

Hi @DSchenk,

So how is your account looking like now, after 1 month ?...From my FX trading side, risking 10% on each trade, I lost 44% of my capital with 26% lost due to stupid greedy positions opened out of any strategy....So I refound 26% and hope to control that Greed from now. Let´s see what February brings...

 

11 hours ago, Adam71 said:

Capture.JPG

ok, that's interesting and a big change from your previous post (about 95% win rate) so down to not sticking to the strategy?

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Hi @Caseynotes,

The correct figures were win rate: 86% win ratio: 0,75. Risk ratio: 0,4R. Based on 22 positions...Then the market changed with almost no volatility from January 9th to January 16th despites sending some days the expected signals...It took me 2 days to notice it. In those 2 days, 4 loosers in a row, with my  (very) low risk  reward ratio (0,4) and the risk of 10% of my account just smaaaaaashed me down !! 

And then, yes you are also right; the nerves, the greed etc...pushed me to trade out of any strategy. Ahaha and I was the one who posted trading like a sniper, right..... Some winners made from fundamental analysis (my spare wheel strategy) could just rescue a little. Before you ask: No, I cannot only trade on fundamental analysis. Most of the time my agenda is not fitting.

 

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On 28/12/2019 at 19:28, DSchenk said:

Holy cow, his account is now at over $39k after only 15 trading days. From $500 to $39k, that's a juicy return right there :D 

Obviously the market for US small caps seems insanely hot right now, but nonetheless, some solid trading performance.

https://youtu.be/Vu2fheiyeow

Have any one of you ever think to yourself how this guy makes his money?

Charging $598/month access is a good start 😀.

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9 hours ago, Adam71 said:

Hi @Caseynotes,

The correct figures were win rate: 86% win ratio: 0,75. Risk ratio: 0,4R. Based on 22 positions...Then the market changed with almost no volatility from January 9th to January 16th despites sending some days the expected signals...It took me 2 days to notice it. In those 2 days, 4 loosers in a row, with my  (very) low risk  reward ratio (0,4) and the risk of 10% of my account just smaaaaaashed me down !! 

And then, yes you are also right; the nerves, the greed etc...pushed me to trade out of any strategy. Ahaha and I was the one who posted trading like a sniper, right..... Some winners made from fundamental analysis (my spare wheel strategy) could just rescue a little. Before you ask: No, I cannot only trade on fundamental analysis. Most of the time my agenda is not fitting.

 

yes, need to keep an eye on market cycles, nothing works all the time so know when to rest up and wait for conditions to realign back in your favour. Knowing when to stay out is just as important as knowing when to get in. Good luck.

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1 hour ago, HPbrand said:

Have any one of you ever think to yourself how this guy makes his money?

Charging $598/month access is a good start 😀.

 

Some people are just born masochists ... they get screwed over twice, first by getting fooled by rockstar/J3sus supertrader bullsh!t and then blaming themselves when it inevitably goes t!ts-up ... if someone  don't think buying/selling on speculative grounds is inherently greedy in and of itself they're clearly delusional.

Edited by dmedin
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12 hours ago, HPbrand said:

Have any one of you ever think to yourself how this guy makes his money?

Charging $598/month access is a good start 😀.

Right ! 

I am always wondering why those guys invest so much time in getting an income via YouTube if they are already so successful with their trades  ? He could rather go outside, enjoy life and....buy a new T-shirt... :)

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On 04/02/2020 at 18:54, Adam71 said:

Right ! 

I am always wondering why those guys invest so much time in getting an income via YouTube if they are already so successful with their trades  ? He could rather go outside, enjoy life and....buy a new T-shirt... :)

It's called being hungry for more.

Why does Jeff Bezos not spend his billions on a nice yacht sailing around his nice private island? Why does Bill Gates bother with running one of the largest philanthropic organisations in the world when he could just chill out, "enjoying life".

Cause they are hungry for more.

Same with traders who make a million $ of profit per year. They want to build a business around it so that one day they don't need to trade every day anymore, but can just live from the income they sell via courses. Also it gives you satisfaction knowing you can help other people become successful as well. Helping people is always giving you more fulfilment than just making money for yourself.

Have a look at this ex-trader called Cameron Fous on youtube. He's a decent guy - met him personally. He traded for 13 years, has no retired from it and rather sells courses and runs his company (IKNK). You don't wanna be stuck behind charts your entire life.

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3 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

Why does Jeff Bezos not spend his billions on a nice yacht sailing around his nice private island? Why does Bill Gates bother with running one of the largest philanthropic organisations in the world when he could just chill out

Both of those men have to work to keep their fortunes up because they have so much money invested in stock markets.  Bill Gates is bosom-buddies with Warren Buffet and trusts him to manage all of his money.  Neither of them would **** on someone if they were on fire.  Helping others is the last thing that ever came across any of those men's minds.  They are pure psychopaths.

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Quick update how my Warrior trading small account challenge goes.

During early January I was trying to apply the Warrior Trading system to spread betting with IG - and failed multiple times.

I came finally to the conclusion that it is not possible to transfer the Warrior Trading system 1:1 to UK spread betting because of the following reasons:

  • With SB you always get in at the worst possible price (ask) and get out at the worst possible price (bid). While Ross works with DMA, meaning he places orders directly into the market at a price he specifies. He always states he's trying to sell at the ask when there's a spike up - something we can't do with SB. Meaning our losses are magnified and our winners are reduced, which can already make such a difference that the strategy turns unprofitable.
  • Most of the high momentum, high volatile stocks Ross is trading are restricted to trade with IG. On a typical day where there are 20 tickers on the morning Gap scanner, we can trade maybe 5 with IG and those 5 are by no means the very best ones to trade on that day, but already a lower tier. This complicates things further.
  • No Level 2 data provided by IG. (This is a minor point as obviously you could buy another 3rd party application for that purpose)

So, mid January I needed to redefine my strategy as Warrior Trading just didn't work out for me.

On 17th of Jan I started a new challenge, which was going for one month until yesterday.

The rules were the following:

  • Slightly larger account size of £2k (instead of £500)
  • Scaling into a position with 25% of the available margin at a time. So first entry uses 25% (£500) of the margin, then second entry another 25% (£500) and so on, until all margin used to build up the position
  • Target is to make 5% of account size, that was £100 to begin with. So limit orders are set at £100 at first. Then when scaled in with 50% of available margin, I adjusted to 2 limit orders with £50 each. When in with 100% of the margin, I had 4 limit orders with £25 each. So scaling in and out of my position nicely
  • Trades can be kept open for an unlimited amount of time, but aim is to close them within 1-2 days
  • No stop-losses

Overall goal was to keep the winning trades % above 80% and the account growth at 50% per month, which would be £1000 for the first month, starting with a £2k account.

How did it go?

Surprisingly well. Up until the point of total catastrophe.

Here you see my stats up until 13th of Feb (before market opens).

My winning trades % is at over 85% and my profit is at £915. So I was only short £85 of my monthly goal and 2 more days to go until the end of the challenge.

I had placed 64 trades so far, 55 winners and only 9 losers and was making on average £14.30 per trade.

Not too bad. Certainly my best account challenge so far. 

image.thumb.png.531f70ce578c340711c409b4126621b7.png

 

Now to the last 2 trading days, which **** me good.

I was going long on Pinterest on the gap up after their trading release earlier in the week and the trade was failing ever since. I placed 2 of my 4 positions at a quite high level and from there got deeper and deeper into the **** with the rest of my margin.  Yesterday night I was closing all of my positions at a huge loss, which pulled me straight into the red on the month.

At least my winning trades % is still 80%. That's one out of 2 goals reached. Still my best small account challenge so far.

image.thumb.png.70b44c04a25186404c43d5d79c940484.png 

So what's next?

Well, with these results I won't be able to go live again and need to start a new challenge next week with slightly updated rules.

Rules are the same as before with the addition of having a stop in place again.

I'm also going to start with £1k instead of £2k as this will be more realistic to what I'm going to have when going live.

I will place my stop at £200, that's 4x my target of £50.

I will still scale in and out of the trade, so the stop changes accordingly with getting more margin tied up in the trade. (1 position --> 1 stop at £200. 2 positions --> 2 stops at £100 average - 1 stop can be e.g. at £150, the other at £50. The sum needs to be £200 max) 

Mathematically, this would make me break-even on the month with having a winning trade % of 80% again.

From there I'm planning to optimise further, in order to become profitable. Either using smaller stops or bringing that winning trades % even higher than 80%.

 

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Posted (edited)

Hey everyone,

wanted to hack out an update, how it goes on my front.

Finished my latest small account challenge last Friday. Here are the results.

Timeframe:
24/02 - 20/03
That's 20 trading days, so a bit shorter than the average month with 21-23 trading days. On plus, I couldn't trade for 3 days. Once I was in a plane, once I was at a party and once in a meeting.

Goal:

  • Keep winning trades % above 80%
  • Finish the month up 50% account size (That's £500 profit with a £1000 start account size)

Strategy:

Momentum Day Trading (as discussed in this thread)

  • Trade first hour of the day (US Market open)
  • Long & short trades
  • Positions can be hold over night
  • Use 25% of margin per position and scale into position until 100% of margin used (So max 4 open positions at a given time) 
  • Reward: £50
  • Risk: £200 (Risk-Reward 4:1)

Results:

  • Winning Trades % above 80%: success
  • £500 in profits: failed

Details:

  • Winning Trades % is at 82% (See chart below)
  • Profits are at £404 (See PnL chart below)

Learnings:

  • At one point I had a £300 daily winner and the next day a £300 daily loss. This was because there was a small flaw in my strategy. My position size increased with more funds in my account, but my risk/reward levels stayed the same. This meant, my trades actually became way more riskier. My winners were higher, but so were my losers. I fixed that flaw consequently in my position size calculator
  • This might be seasonal, but shorts were working a lot better than longs. I placed only 8 long trades and made a loss of £50 in total on them. Whereas I placed 63 short trades with £454 of profit
  • I should've ended up with much more profit. At one point I already hit over £800 of profits, but then gave half of it back again. There was a day where I ended up break-even, where I should've made £300+. The optimisation here is, that I was working with that fixed target of £50 as a limit order. In fact it is better to remove that order and only know where the target is and set a stop order at that level, once the price crossed it. That way, I could've sometimes ride a trend for much longer. As mentioned there was a trade where I took £100 (already double the target), but if I held onto it, it would've been £300+. So, futurewise I'm only gonna set the limit orders, when I'm leaving the trading desk and still have positions open.
  • I seem to do better on the first trade of the day and then it gets way harder on the 2nd, 3rd trade of the day. Sometimes on the first one I make £50, then lose £200 on the second trade. So maybe there's an option to either scale down in sizing on the second trade or have stricter entry criteria. Will keep need to investigate this one.

Next steps:

  • I could now say, well I didn't reach the £500 profit goal, so I have to start a new challenge or just trade 1-2 more days (to actually trade a full month in this challenge). But as I in fact was able to demonstrate that it is possible to do 50%+ account growth (just need to be careful not giving too much back to the market afterwards) I let that count as goal completed. If I would've played it hard-core I could've just stopped trading once I crossed the threshold, but where's the fun in that?
  • So, I accept this small account challenge as a success, meaning I'm gonna go back into live environment today. Account size: £1000. Same strategy as successfully tested. Aim: 50% account growth per month.

Thanks to everyone who was supporting me during this Phase, especially @nit2wynit & @Caseynotes.

Now onto Phase 2. But I'm already excited for Phase 3 and 4 :) 

Here are the phases:

  • Phase 1: Proof of Concept Demo -  check 
  • Phase 2: Proof of Concept Live
  • Phase 3: Documenting daily trades on my website to create a following
  • Phase 4: Launching my trading academy

image.png.e6af122ce5441511879f7f58a9e84084.png

image.png.7986c45a6afa008a3bdb53b649ccfdd8.png

image.png.53adfd7fb7306e7693ef57100290e95f.png

 

Edited by DSchenk
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Well done pal.....I think you've done a great job of working thru your strategy and come a very solid result.

I personally have the opposite problem where I let my winners run Too Long, often coming back to Break Even...OR too tight a Stop.  However, I have an average of 1:4 PL, but I'm 30/70 on my winning Trades....

I went Live 3 weeks ago with £500 and managed to stay in the game at above or below this level.  I could have literally grown the account to double in the first week, but didn't take the profit.

What I've figured is that because I'm trading with a small account, I'm not recognising the Profit when it's there.  What I mean is, I might only be trading at 24ppp, so  £10 profit isn't lighting up my eyes....where as it's often 1:4 PL.

I'm currently Long on Novavax but had a Margin call on Friday before Market Close...

I'll know today If my account is Blown!

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Half blown.  Can't take another hit like today....Could be all over for me this week.

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Pal, @nit2wynit, already thought you went to another planet or something, lol. Living that guardians of the galaxy lifestyle :D 

Cool, you're live now as well.

On 23/03/2020 at 19:39, nit2wynit said:

I personally have the opposite problem where I let my winners run Too Long

I always said it, our two strategies combined must be a wallstreet gold standard strategy :D 

I had a pretty good start this week.
Although was only available to trade on 3 days, smashed through my weekly profit target of £125 already on the first day and finished the week up £262.40 with a w
inning trade % of 92% and risk-reward 4:1.

image.png.c25b5c7e47dd36b5678d2b8affcea9b9.png

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1 minute ago, DSchenk said:

Pal, @nit2wynit, already thought you went to another planet or something, lol. Living that guardians of the galaxy lifestyle :D 

Cool, you're live now as well.

I always said it, our two strategies combined must be a wallstreet gold standard strategy :D 

I had a pretty good start this week.
Although was only available to trade on 3 days, smashed through my weekly profit target of £125 already on the first day and finished the week up £262.40 with a w
inning trade % of 92% and risk-reward 4:1.

image.png.c25b5c7e47dd36b5678d2b8affcea9b9.png

I've somehow lost you on FB pal, not really sure why........

I took a heavy loss on Novavax just before the spike up and almost blew it all.  still in the game.

I never was quite sure of your half, but it's clearly working out.  Well done! :D

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Posted (edited)

I lost my nerve on Nova for an overnight position.  I was already under £200 with a £400 account, and got a Margin Call, but it returned to only have me under £100.  I left it overnight.  I had a target price of $12 and I was in at $10.  I was filled with too much doubt and got out of the trade for -£80 and lost £20 on another trade.  So then I'm at £300.  I had every faith in Nova going up, and just before the bell I had my finger over the Buy button, but held back..

Pre-market next day was up to $15........Missed out of £500.  then I was so down, blew another £200 in 2 days leaving me with only £97.  Placing micro trades I'm up to £118 today, but really feeling the loss this time as It was right there at my fingertips...Big Sigh.....

Edited by nit2wynit
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  • Posts

    • I cannot see that the global economy will have a fast recovery. I can only see a depression looming unless a vaccine is quickly developed. This is the first time in a long time that the US has been directly affected by a major negative event (9/11 was localised). With the US slowing down, there is no other economy that will be able to create the demand required to get us a fast recovery. China's domestic demand is not large enough and Chinese personal debt was going through the roof even before the virus pandemic. How will the world and the global economy be once this pandemic subsides? I think a very changed society and traditional retail will be one the worst sufferers. Also with all this money printing, is there a risk of hyperinflation in the long term? Well, gonna buy a couple of KGs of gold just as insurance and not for investment per se. Also think property prices will come under the cosh so sitting on cash will enable you to buy distressed properties as getting loans will be hard for many. I am reevaluating my log term investment strategy to take into account the changing environment.
    • Yes...lots of people reacting in strange ways right now......Keep smiling.... How long will it all last? I know it sounds boring....but forget the noise (harder said then done) and watch the charts...the trend is your only friend.... That said....down for april.....sell in may and come back in june!! Dan         
    • I have same question. I work in Dubai and have hold account with IG. If I plan to move to India, how can I deposit and withdraw money.
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