Jump to content

Is Retail FX Trading Dead?


Recommended Posts

Can anyone actually make a living trading FX anymore unless you are trading very large size? Just asking.

"FX Volatility is becoming a potential *significant* concern. A huge list of major currencies just spiked new *all-time record lows* in implied Vol including $EURUSD, $USDJPY, $AUDUSD, $USDCHF, $USDCAD and $NZDUSD."

Macro Charts @MacroCharts

image.png.422ba9275e486bfdfb57636ac2a24955.png

image.thumb.png.a48ff234a1b6c1c1473ef09ca7b19c0f.png

 

Link to comment
12 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Can anyone actually make a living trading FX anymore unless you are trading very large size?

Frankly I'm surprised that anyone could make a 'living' from it in the first place.

95% failure rate, but out of the remaining 5% how many are making a 'living' as opposed to just making a net profit?

Link to comment
5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Frankly I'm surprised that anyone could make a 'living' from it in the first place.

95% failure rate, but out of the remaining 5% how many are making a 'living' as opposed to just making a net profit?

To make money trading price has to move in any direction other than sideways, as the price chart shows eurusd has just been moving sideways for a long time as the implied vol chart confirms.

When I say traders I mean traders rather than the hopers, dreamers and fantasists who make up the large percentage of failures you are referring to 😥

Link to comment
2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

EUR vs USD has been moving down for over a year.  As Chris Beauchamp says, 'Sell the rallies.'  We're all experts with hindsight :)

realistically it's been moving sideways all year but the question is though with a 14 period daily ATR of just 35 points what sort of size would you need to trade this to actually make a living. Compared to Dax for example which is also historically low at just 135 points.

Link to comment
Just now, dmedin said:

I agree, and I think the idea of trading for a 'living' is (and probably has always been) impossible for a 'retail' client.  Simply not losing your money puts you in the top 5 percent ...

but you see that 'what' you trade is going to really affect outcomes if you are retail operating with low size . FX is the traditional entry (or was until crypto) but neither is necessarily the 'right' asset to trade. Low volatility is fine for investing but death to trading.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
6 hours ago, dmedin said:

I agree, and I think the idea of trading for a 'living' is (and probably has always been) impossible for a 'retail' client.  Simply not losing your money puts you in the top 5 percent ...

isn't it 25%...

banner is telling me 75% of people lose money.

Link to comment

to answer the question though, making money from trading is about the long term, and whilst implied volatility on a specific asset is low, that doesn't mean it's the case for everything. There are lots of opportunities out there.

look at oil yesterday.

just need to look at other volatility opportunities and run with it. Uping your trade size to capitalise on small moving markets I don't think is a great idea. when the vol comes you'll be stung.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
1 hour ago, cryptotrader said:

isn't it 25%...

banner is telling me 75% of people lose money.

The stats are unclear ...

What exactly do they mean by 'lose money' - do they mean than 75% of clients have made a net lost over the last 12 months?  Because anyone who trades regularly will lose money at some point.

Okay - and if so, how many of those clients were day trading?  Because some of them will be buying and holding positions, or swing trading, or buying options etc.

The 95% figure for day traders is from an academic research paper than Caseynotes linked to but I can't find it. 

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment
Guest Homer Enronride
4 hours ago, dmedin said:

The stats are unclear ...

What exactly do they mean by 'lose money' - do they mean than 75% of clients have made a net lost over the last 12 months?  Because anyone who trades regularly will lose money at some point.

Okay - and if so, how many of those clients were day trading?  Because some of them will be buying and holding positions, or swing trading, or buying options etc.

The 95% figure for day traders is from an academic research paper than Caseynotes linked to but I can't find it. 

AMF in France did a study 2009-2012 

Maybe wrong place to add a link😉

But they wrote this 

"In addition to the great majority of losing clients and the losses suffered, the study shed light on a behavioural phenomenon: individual investors learn little over time. Indeed, it appears that the most active and regular investors see their losses mount over time."

 

 

Link to comment

Trading is a skill that we all strive to achieve because we know that there are many benefits for us as individuals.  I thought this page might help us all to gain strength and focus.

https://www.babypips.com/trading/forex-self-discipline-20191204?utm_source=BabyPips.com+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c523638c48-Daily+Newsletter+-+December+5%2C+2019&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e6d6948c39-c523638c48-417587933&ct=t()

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Making a living out of trading..
Depends on what your needs are. Would you need $50 or $100 or $500 etc income a day to make a living from?
How much time and dedication can you put in?

No you wont get rich in a few days. It does take time. Build up your capital/portfolio trade by trade and day by day. Trade with the mindset that it is going to take you 2 years to build up enough trading capital.


There is a difference between trading and gambling(taking a chance on a trade). Sometimes this can be a fine line. Crossing that line to taking a punt/taking a chance and you will lose for sure. Keep your cool, analyse then place a trade.
Cut your losses soon enough when you see a trade going against you. Let your winners run until such time to cash in.

Rather lose out on trade not take than lose on a gamble trade.

There are difference between trading and investing. FX markets are trading. I dont think one would make money just by "buy and hold" strategy on FX markets.
I dont trade FX markets. I only trade Indices and only at certain times of the day and only trade certain Indices. They are more predictable and more market/economy related.So you have some gauge which direction the market is heading. 


Yes there is money to be made. It takes time, dedication and concentration. eyes on the screen and ears listening to CNBC and/or Bloomberg television.


If you go through a bad patch - stop trading for few days until you are "in sync" with the markets again.

Know that you will blow up your account before you succeed. Almost guaranteed. Refund again then blow it up again. That will be the pattern until you learn from your mistakes or until you are totally broke.
Until you acknowledge what you are doing wrong. What bad trade habits you have. Recognise them. Work on those. Work on them on demo account. Note your own trade pattern, weakness and mistakes you make while on demo account and work on them. Dont use demo account to see how much money you can make. Demo account is like Monopoly money. Overcome them otherwise you will never succeed.
 

There are hours and hours of training material on the internet. Use it.

Link to comment
7 hours ago, dau710 said:

Rayner Teo is mostly a price action trader & he gives away heaps of trading techniques for free.  I know the markets have been difficult recently but his techniques are simple and very effective & may be of assistance to all.

Very true, you can find a collection of his work linked in this thread.  

https://community.ig.com/forums/topic/4559-ta-technical-analysis/

image.thumb.png.96f95599e694d5e19d0a6d7955670ac6.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
3 hours ago, AVOR said:

There is a difference between trading and gambling

The problem is that there are an enormous number of financial professionals, some with decades of experience, who would disagree with you.  And the published figures and academic studies also disagree with you.  So you really are putting forward a point of view that requires a lot of faith to believe in.

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment
9 hours ago, dau710 said:

Rayner Teo is mostly a price action trader & he gives away heaps of trading techniques for free.  I know the markets have been difficult recently but his techniques are simple and very effective & may be of assistance to all.

 

 

 

Yes, a trader can adopt techniques to minimize his/her losses - but make a 'living' ... hmm.  Even people who write books on 'how to make a living day trading' are usually found, upon closer inspection, to be earning income from other sources (for example, from selling books ... and teaching).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The problem is that there are an enormous number of financial professionals, some with decades of experience, who would disagree with you.

I see a difference between a trader and a gambler working with a validated plan and a gambler and a trader working with no plan. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
6 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I see a difference between a trader and a gambler working with a validated plan and a gambler and a trader working with no plan. 

Yes I agree and when you buy a house or any other investment there is always some degree of risk involved in the outcome and the bank has usually made some assessment regarding its value so that they can give you a loan to make the purchase.  You also hope it will go up in value over time but you have no guarantee.  This is all based on the opinion of other people, based on the prices of other houses in that area etc, etc.  Trading CFD's, share or others is no different in my opinion, they are also priced based on other peoples opinion of its current value.  Its not a gamble but a calculated risk and some hope with any investment.

Edited by dau710
Link to comment

A house isn't really comparable, because it is an object of utility as well as value.  (Unless you are a landlord who buys property solely for the purpose of extracting rents from other people.)

If you're into calculated risks, buy and hold a diversified portfolio.  If you fancy a flutter, spread bet.

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment
20 minutes ago, dmedin said:

A house isn't really comparable, because it is an object of utility as well as value.  (Unless you are a landlord who buys property solely for the purpose of extracting rents from other people.)

If you're into calculated risks, buy and hold a diversified portfolio.  If you fancy a flutter, spread bet.

In Australia we have CFD's which are a legal contract and have legal value as a contract and I presume that spread betting would also have a legal value between you and IG or the company behind the spread bet.  Although a house is classed as an asset the concept of a legal claim to the increase or decrease in value of a house, CFD's or Spread Betting is the same.  It really doesn't matter if you have taken a loan for the house, CFD or Spread Bet or used your own money you will still have a legal claim to the value increase or decrease.  The outcome of this claimed value is always caused by supply and demand, which is always based on peoples opinion of the value of something and whatever your opinion was when you entered into the legal contract that connects you to the contract of value is what you will receive in the end.  There is no difference between any asset, CFD or Spread Bet in the sense that you make a decision on what will happen to it when you sell it and you are legally bound to it.

Edited by dau710
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Guest Trader Martino

I`ve been trading FX on IG for over 10 years, never made a penny, don't get me wrong had good days weeks months and even profitable years, but over the period always lost and trust me i have tried everything.

The good news alongside this period I have invested in primarily US stocks and built a good quality high dividend yielding portfolio which has performed exceptionally well.

I have learnt a lot during this period so the money lost with IG in my opinion has not been wasted, it gives you great exposure to Financial Markets as a whole and you learn what not to do....

The Key Points I have learnt during this time is 90% of people out there talking about chart patterns trading courses and the like are full of **** who like all of us are correct some of the time but in the long run not profitable and are looking to make money from selling courses to trade and hopefully not lose it this time ha, or they are the talking suits on TV punting there own agenda TRADING OTHER PEOPLES MONEY!.

In my humble opinion once you get away from looking for short term price movements and take a long term investment view can you start making money.

Link to comment

I`ve been trading FX on IG for over 10 years, never made a penny, don't get me wrong had good days weeks months and even profitable years, but over the period always lost and trust me i have tried everything.

The good news alongside this period I have invested in primarily US stocks and built a good quality high dividend yielding portfolio which has performed exceptionally well.

I have learnt a lot during this period so the money lost with IG in my opinion has not been wasted, it gives you great exposure to Financial Markets as a whole and you learn what not to do....

The Key Points I have learnt during this time is 90% of people out there talking about chart patterns trading courses and the like are full of **** who like all of us are correct some of the time but in the long run not profitable and are looking to make money from selling courses to trade and hopefully not lose it this time ha, or they are the talking suits on TV punting there own agenda TRADING OTHER PEOPLES MONEY!.

In my humble opinion once you get away from looking for short term price movements and take a long term investment view can you start making money.

  • Like 2
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • ADANI PORTS and SEZ – ADANIPORTS (1D Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Larger Degree Trend Higher (Intermediate degree, orange) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Minor Wave 5 Grey. Details: Minor Wave 5 Grey is progressing higher within Intermediate Wave (5) Orange against 1160. Alternatively, Minor Wave 5 Grey already terminated around 1630 (truncation) and the stock has turned lower. Invalidation point: 1160 ADANI PORTS & SEZ Daily Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: ADANI PORTS & SEZ daily chart is indicating a progressive rally, which is into Minor Wave 5 of Intermediate Wave (5) Orange, and targeting above 1600 high going forward. Bottom line for bulls to remain in control is 1160 low; Minor Wave 4 termination. The stock earlier terminated Intermediate Wave (4) Orange around 395 mark in February 2023. Since then, the rally could be clearly sub divided into five waves. Minor Waves 1 through 4; and Wave 5 is now underway. Minor Wave 3 was extended, which is ideally the case. If the above holds well, prices should turn higher from here (1360), and continue pushing through 1600 high going forward. Alternatively, a drop below 1160 would indicate a potential trend reversal ahead. ADANI PORTS and SEZ – ADANIPORTS (4H Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Larger Degree Trend Higher (Intermediate degree, orange) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Minor Wave 5 Grey. Details: Minor Wave 5 Grey is progressing higher within Intermediate Wave (5) Orange against 1160. Minute Waves ((i)) and ((ii)) might be complete around 1600 and 1300 levels respectively. If correct, Minute Wave ((iii)) should be underway soon. Alternatively, Minor Wave 5 Grey already terminated around 1630 (truncation) and the stock has turned lower. Invalidation point: 1160 ADANI PORT & SEZ 4H Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: ADANI PORT & SEZ 4H chart highlights the sub waves after Minor Wave 4 completed around 1160 mark on June 06, 2024. Minute Waves ((i)) and ((ii)) also within Minor Wave 6 look complete 1600 and 1300 respectively. If correct, prices should stay above 1160 as Minute Wave ((iii)) gets underway. Conclusion: ADANI PORT & SEZ is progressing higher within Minor Wave 5 of Intermediate Wave (5) against 1160, targeting above 1600 high. Elliott Wave Analyst: Harsh Japee Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • RUSSELL 2000 Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart RUSSELL 2000 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Gray Wave 3 Position: Orange Wave 3 Direction Next Lower Degrees: Gray Wave 4 Details: Gray wave 2 appears complete, with gray wave 3 currently active. Wave Cancelation Invalid Level: 217.61 The Russell 2000 Day Chart, analyzed using the Elliott Wave technique, indicates a bullish trend in an impulsive mode. This trend is structured within gray wave 3, suggesting continued upward momentum. The current position, identified as orange wave 3 within the larger gray wave sequence, reinforces expectations of further gains in line with this bullish movement. The completion of gray wave 2 sets the stage for gray wave 3, which is now in progress. This configuration aligns with the Elliott Wave principle, which typically features impulsive waves driving trends forward through structured cycles. The next anticipated phase is gray wave 4, a corrective phase expected to follow the completion of gray wave 3. Until then, the upward trajectory of the trend is expected to persist. Key Level: The wave invalidation level for this analysis is 217.61. A decline below this level would invalidate the current wave structure and necessitate a reevaluation of the trend's direction. Remaining above 217.61, however, supports the validity of the current bullish interpretation and suggests continued upward movement. Conclusion: The Russell 2000 Day Chart, based on Elliott Wave analysis, reflects a bullish outlook characterized by an active gray wave 3 in an impulsive mode. The wave sequence suggests further gains, with 217.61 serving as a critical invalidation level for the current structure. As long as the index stays above this level, the primary expectation is for sustained upward momentum within the Elliott Wave framework.   RUSSELL 2000 Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Weekly Chart RUSSELL 2000 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Orange Wave 3 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Direction Next Lower Degrees: Orange Wave 4 Details: Orange wave 2 seems complete, with orange wave 3 currently active. Wave Cancelation Invalid Level: 217.61 The Russell 2000 Weekly Chart, interpreted through Elliott Wave analysis, highlights a bullish trend progressing in an impulsive mode. This wave structure focuses on orange wave 3, reflecting strong continuation within the current trend cycle. With orange wave 2 likely completed, orange wave 3 is now in play, suggesting further upward movement in line with the bullish outlook. The chart’s current position aligns with navy blue wave 3, which drives the broader orange wave 3 structure. According to Elliott Wave principles, the third wave in a five-wave impulsive sequence is often the most powerful, signifying robust upward momentum and strength in the prevailing trend. The next anticipated phase in the wave sequence is orange wave 4, which represents a potential corrective movement following the completion of orange wave 3. Until orange wave 3 concludes, the market is expected to maintain its bullish trajectory. Key Level: A wave invalidation level is set at 217.61. A decline below this threshold would invalidate the current wave count and necessitate a reassessment of the trend. Conversely, staying above 217.61 supports the bullish wave configuration and further upward movement. Conclusion: The Russell 2000 Weekly Chart reflects a bullish trend led by orange wave 3 within an impulsive mode, with navy blue wave 3 driving the structure. The analysis anticipates continued strength in the index, with 217.61 serving as the critical invalidation level for the current wave count. This setup points to ongoing bullish momentum, with future analysis contingent upon the completion of orange wave 3 before transitioning to the corrective orange wave 4 phase. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • EURGBP Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Euro/British Pound (EURGBP) Day Chart EURGBP Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Bearish Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Orange Wave 1 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Direction Next Higher Degrees: Orange Wave 2 Details: Navy blue wave 2 appears complete, with orange wave 1 of navy blue wave 3 currently in motion. Wave Cancelation Invalid Level: 0.84490 The EURGBP Day Chart, based on Elliott Wave analysis, demonstrates a bearish trend with an impulsive wave structure. The current setup includes orange wave 1 within navy blue wave 3, indicating a continuation of the downward trajectory in line with the broader trend. The analysis highlights that navy blue wave 2 has likely concluded, leading to the development of orange wave 1 within navy blue wave 3. This formation fits a classic impulsive Elliott Wave structure, supporting the overall bearish outlook. Navy blue wave 3, as the current position within the larger wave pattern, underscores the downward momentum. The higher-degree direction aims for orange wave 2, which suggests that any upward movements are expected to be corrective and part of the larger bearish framework. Consequently, potential rallies may be short-lived and unlikely to signify a reversal of the bearish trend. Key Level: The invalidation level for the current wave structure is 0.84490. A move above this level would invalidate the current bearish count, necessitating a reassessment of the wave structure. Conversely, maintaining levels below 0.84490 supports the validity of the current Elliott Wave configuration and the bearish trend. Summary: The EURGBP Day Chart analysis points to a bearish trend driven by an impulsive orange wave 1 within navy blue wave 3. The expectation is for continued declines as part of the broader downward trend. Monitoring the invalidation level at 0.84490 is crucial for confirming the validity of the current structure, with the primary outlook remaining bearish as long as this level is not breached.   Euro/British Pound (EURGBP) 4-Hour Chart EURGBP Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Bearish Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Orange Wave 1 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Direction Next Higher Degrees: Orange Wave 2 Details: Navy blue wave 2 seems complete, with orange wave 1 of navy blue wave 3 currently unfolding. Wave Cancelation Invalid Level: 0.84490 The EURGBP 4-Hour Chart, interpreted through Elliott Wave analysis, reveals a bearish trend characterized by an impulsive wave structure. This setup shows that orange wave 1 has initiated within navy blue wave 3, suggesting continued downward momentum as the wave sequence progresses. The analysis indicates that navy blue wave 2 is likely completed, paving the way for orange wave 1 to move lower. This marks the beginning of navy blue wave 3’s downward phase, aligning with the impulsive nature of Elliott Wave patterns. These waves emphasize a directional trend that supports the broader market movement. The current position of navy blue wave 3 within the wave hierarchy confirms the bearish bias. The potential emergence of orange wave 2 in the near term indicates that any upward movements may serve as corrective phases rather than a shift in the primary trend. This structure reflects a continuation of the overall downward trajectory, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Key Level: The wave invalidation level is 0.84490. If prices rise above this level, the current bearish count would be invalidated, necessitating a reevaluation of the wave structure. Remaining below 0.84490, however, sustains the validity of the bearish wave count and supports continued declines within the impulsive wave framework. Summary: The EURGBP 4-Hour Chart analysis identifies a bearish trend driven by the impulsive orange wave 1 within navy blue wave 3. This wave progression points to further declines, with the invalidation level at 0.84490 serving as a critical threshold for maintaining the current wave structure. As long as this level holds, the dominant trend remains bearish. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us