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Is Retail FX Trading Dead?


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4 minutes ago, Martino115 said:

In my humble opinion once you get away from looking for short term price movements and take a long term investment view can you start making money.

fair enough you are advocating investing over trading but that doesn't negate the fact that there are professional traders.

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2 minutes ago, Martino115 said:

Sure there are professional traders out there mostly trading other peoples money, which in itself is very different to the retail guy..

yes that's true though they all had to start somewhere. I think myself FX and crypto is more difficult to trade than stocks, indices and commods and yet FX and crypto are the gateway into trading for the majority. FX I think is particularity difficult when volatility is at extreme lows. 

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Going back to the original chart and I started trading FX at A and it wasn't too bad but then sat through all the way to B and that was tough. But it picked up again and again wasn't too bad but at C I stopped trading FX altogether and have not regretted it since. 

 image.png.17522e3dd0d07533a24aae432f223b11.png

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Isn't it just the same as using TA to trade anything else?

Pairs (FX) are something of a 2-headed beast and so different to other markets but it's the very low volatility that leads you to be crawling around on your hands and knees trying to pick up pennies. Nothing ever seems to take off but rather sparks and then just fizzles out.

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28 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Pairs (FX) are something of a 2-headed beast and so different to other markets but it's the very low volatility that leads you to be crawling around on your hands and knees trying to pick up pennies. Nothing ever seems to take off but rather sparks and then just fizzles out.

There's been some great chances this year with GBP.

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

There's been some great chances this year with GBP.

yes but only due to high levels of uncertainty caused by brexit and the upcoming election, that's not really what you are looking for. see below the implied volatility charts for other pairs and the global FX index, the low vol is not just eurusd it's all of them.

so low implied volatility means a decrease in the high/low range that the pair is expected to trade in according to actual trades that have been placed in the Futures market and can also be seen historically by a charts decreasing daily ATR.

image.png.d4af1d478a5a5662c258501edbfb161c.png 

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Not this week but last week, I noticed at one point the Swiss Index was moving in the exact opposite direction as the EUSTX50. So, I think that some of the things which used to take place with the currencies are now taking place in the Indices to avoid the risk of Central Bank intervention.

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