Jump to content

Beans Wheat Corn


Recommended Posts

Hi folks ,

Any of you pop pickers looking at US ag complex.   

Referring always to spot

US wheat :

Fundamental s and d  ....Tight  but recent lack of Chinese purchases and threat of Cv has caused a bit of steam to come out of the bulls.

I see it like this.  The current lack lustre pullback will end around 545-558.  I do nt see it taking out 545 on a closing basis.  I think given the true s and  d that we will revisit 595 possibly taking that out to run to 630...Could be in May when old crop is getting scarce.  


  • Like 1
Link to comment

Beans :  

Fundamentals :  Not so clearly bullish. Lack of Chinese demand due to the cull of pigs...and lack of follow through from the Phase 1 trade agreement....Has seen the market drop along with Indx s ;  Cv seen as a reason for lack of demand and there are plentiful supplies of Beans in S America..  

So likely test of $880 .   i think it will hold as buyers come out of the wood work. I would nt put Granny into it though.  Soyabeans_20200130_10_37.thumb.png.386587ba4de3ec824ba41cf3ba873632.png

Link to comment


The Chicago Wheat looks like it could pull back to the 550 point due to the 50 day EMA (blue line). Its been there twice before in Nov and Dec before bouncing back up.

Don't like the 15 point minimum bet though! With an ATR of 10, its a bit spicy for my current portfolio.


Chicago Wheat_20200130_11.13.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment

Don't know anything about Wheat @cheviot and can't get sufficient years of data on IG to get a purely bearing, however the chart from 2000ish they do have looks very similar to some agri crops I do track and trade (NY Sugar No.11 and Aribica Coffee).  All of these soft commodities seem to have topped out during the commodity super-cycle top in 2011ish and since then have been in decline, whereas some of the harder commodities and precious metals have rallied harder, and in the case of PMs the general market bias is definitely bullish (not yet convinced!).

In my Coffee and Sugar posts I have discussed the case for an impending massive cyclical bull market on the basis that we have been at or near the long term range bottom, although there was still room below.  These markets took off, especially coffee BUT now it looks to me like Coffee is reversing and is more likely to put in lower lows on the long term trend before that Bull can take hold.  I had reversed and shorted Coffee near the top of the recent rally but thought it was a bullish retrace rather than a reversal.  Sugar is not there yet, although I am tactically Short now and waiting to see how it plays out.  My concern is that Sugar could follow all the rest of the Softs (And indeed hards as well, currently) lower.

Part of my thesis for a bull market in the making was technical and part fundamentals (As always).  The Fundamentals part was that in a trading range market, once you reach the bottom (or top) the probability is massively in favour of a reversal into the opposite trend.  Timing is hard as these markets can stay hugging the extremes for a long time.  There are signs that in both Coffee and Sugar farmers are leaving the market (supply issue building).  However, as @TrendFollowermentioned a while ago I believe, there was is a large stockpile of coffee about to be released on the market in Brazil.  Sugar definitely has a supply problem though it seems.  Another part was the idea doing the rounds of hyper inflation, driven by central banks getting what they have been seeking but not being able to control it.  This is being called the "reflation trade" and unsurprisingly not everyone agrees with the hypothesis...  The third factor was a falling USD, which ought to be good for commodities in theory (doesn't trump supply demand drivers though) but currently it is looking increasingly likely we will see DX at about 10000 (currently 9760ish).  So all in all it seems that another period of commodity bearishness is in play (check also the thread on HG Copper).

I remain convinced that a commodity bull market is going to happen and that softs will be the place to be when it does as I feel that industrial commodities will get hit by a recession (we may get that inflation trade first though, especially on Oil, which may then trigger the stocks crash and reflect the recessionary forces).  All of these markets are related but food and water security is the single biggest issue the planet faces long term, far out weighing climate change (the climate gang are talking about the wrong things!).  If the population is set to grow to somewhere between 9-13 billion by 2100 where is all the food and water going to come from?  That's long term of course but if prices are depressed and farmers leave the industry then supply shortages at low prices are inevitable.  Cue prices increases, and probably in a dramatic fashion.  The question remains, when?  I thought we might be there but this months price performance on Coffee makes me thing we are not yet.



  • Like 3
Link to comment

Beans......I do nt see this holding these levels....Cv really spooking this commodity and o/supply issues until the Chinese start buying under Phase one??  I think it has to test $850.  Looking at the big picture , it increasingly looks like a bearish picture.  The 618% retracement bounce is clear and at the top Soyabeans_20200201_17_39.png.caf4efcf406602de3242f06a0867726e.pngend of an ABC.  


Suffering from C v in the same way....But s and d is underlyingly tight.....I d expect it to hold $545  400763634_ChicagoWheat_20200201_17_40.png.90aa056d3852dd904472beb01fa8a5e1.png

Money where mouth is...Yes I bought the blue line in Beans at the close on Thursday pm, I sold it for a 4pt bounce as I did nt feel comfortable with it..

Short beans long wheat would be a good Texas spread.....  

Link to comment
13 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Suffering from C v in the same way....But s and d is underlyingly tight.....I d expect it to hold $545

Just seen a gap at $545 spot wheat....Another reason why the market wants to come back and fill it before moving ahead....

Link to comment


Adding Rice to the thread, it was brought to my attention from a old colleague who picked up on the fundementals. Weekly chart has a solid upward trend since Nov, and the daily chart has few pullbacks, and (somehow) appears unaffected by the C virus.



  • Like 1
Link to comment

Wheat  ....Just a quick update.....Wheat choppy with a correctional feel to it.....I expect stout defence of $536 being a Fib ratio pullback and top of Wave 1.   

S and D just the same but lack of Chinese buying , an expensive $ and Cv , there s been some profit taking by insitutions as well as elevator/farmer selling.  

Beans are likewise ...Choppy sideways action with a downside bias , but $873 held, but I d expect that to be retested.  

I would nt be short either commodity.....a little choice buying may work well. 1948605485_ChicagoWheat_20200212_11_25.png.feee8d7c3ef1bffe2f0e5a34bf86fd31.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Weekly wheat update......When is a rally not a rally?  When its a B wave correction....The rally from wheat mid week did nt 'smell' right.  And now the market shas given up most of its gain to look like another test of $536....Month end can be a drama as book squaring  pushes the market around.  Usually month ends have been a cause for a rally....but .....My tummy tells me it could push lower first.....as Cv2019 takes a toll and a strong dollar....1294441709_ChicagoWheat_20200222_08_17.png.282324d483989a4a338862cc912719d3.png

  • Like 1
  • Great! 1
Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...
On 20/02/2020 at 14:00, CharlotteIG said:

Wheat v Corn

Charlotte....why is it that Wheat spread has widened out so much recently...evn when the market is quiet   it can be double the normal 6 bp   out to 12 bp s which makes it impossible to day trade or evn week trade !  

Link to comment
2 hours ago, cheviot said:

Charlotte....why is it that Wheat spread has widened out so much recently...evn when the market is quiet   it can be double the normal 6 bp   out to 12 bp s which makes it impossible to day trade or evn week trade !  

With the futures we take the underlying prices and wrap our spread around it. if the spread widens it's because the underlying has. 

Our standard pricing on Chicago wheat is around 1pt. What time was it 12pts. Also if this the future or spot?

Link to comment
2 hours ago, CharlotteIG said:

With the futures we take the underlying prices and wrap our spread around it. if the spread widens it's because the underlying has. 

Our standard pricing on Chicago wheat is around 1pt. What time was it 12pts. Also if this the future or spot?

Its sitting at 15 bp right now 12.45 pm....spot.  You never used to be so wide...It was always 6 bp....With an entry of £15 min ( which I totally understand) it means £22,50 min as i write,  ?  

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 05/02/23 00:32
  • Posts

    • HI,  Please if any IG supporting staff can answer the questions below? 1. in the upcoming AMC/APE vote on 14 March 2023, can shareholder that hold AMC and APE at IG able to make a vote? I also have AMC and APE at IBKR and they did send out a notification to inform me that I can do proxy vote. Will IG do the same? 2. the upcoming vote is to determine APE covert back to AMC then do reverse spilt. Last year after APE issued, IG staff told me that they have to move APE to share dealing account from my ISA account as ISA is not eligible to hold APE (which is completely unbelivable, my APE at AJ Bell and HL are still sitting in ISA account). Anyway, if the conversion and reverse spilt is going to happen, will IG move my APE back to ISA account for the corporate action? Many Thanks
    • The epidemic in recent years has produced profound changes in people's lifestyles, and many of their activities have started to be developed in the virtual world, which plays an important role in promoting the development of the universe of meta. Games, as an important part of the universe of meta, will be the first industry to gain the benefits , but the following conditions are still indispensable for blockchain games to achieve better development.   - Wallets and Exchanges. Through the use of wallets, game users can truly take control of the assets in the game, and exchanges provide a trading platform and liquidity for these game assets NFT, helping users trade and revitalize their game assets. Wallets are a key application for depositing blockchain assets. Currently, wallets such as Metamask are not enough to support the extensive adoption of block games, and wallets will further advance community drive the popularity of blockchain games.  - Game playability. The biggest difference between blockchain games and traditional games is that gamers are also investors. Many blockchain games have gone out of course, treating all users as investors only and forgetting that the essence of making games is to develop high-quality games that users are interested in paying for. If most people play a game just to make money, and no one is ready to pay for it, it becomes a side-scam. The revenue of the participants of the side scam comes from the money of the people who come later, and if there are not enough people who come later, they will not be able to cash in the revenue, leading to the breakdown.  - Speed and performance. A high level of concurrency is the characteristic of game applications, so Wax, Coinan Chain and Polygon, which are public chains with a high level of concurrency and low fees, have attracted a large number of game developers. In the future, with the maturity of technologies such as Ethernet Layer 2 and slice scaling, as well as the maturity of other gaming public chain technologies compatible with EVM, blockchain games will have a better development and operation environment.  - Cross-chain and interaction. Cross-chain and interaction of game assets will be a direction of future development of metaverse games, and blockchain should be connected and accessible like the Internet. The maturity of cross-chain technology in the future will promote the cross-chain transfer of game assets and NFT, and improve the interaction experience of the system                                                                                     The game should maintain the operation of the project by relying on the payment of some users or selling profitable products, just like the new blockchain game Fairy Cat in 2023, which developed diverse gameplay for players and increased the playability of the game, thus got the recognition of many players. Blockchain games need to work hard on game experience and playability. Token economics is essentially just a kind of interest structure , and even good token economics cannot replace the development, operation and profitability of the project itself. It is believed that with the maturity of the above conditions, more and more game developers and investors will enter this industry and together promote the production of some blockchain games with beautiful graphics, first-class experience and high playability.
    • Hello, Is any interest paid on "available" cash (not "margin") in a spread betting account? For example, if I held £10k in an account and had no open positions. The reason for asking is that I understand that proceeds from short sales in a CFD will receive interest (benchmark-2.5%), so was wondering if that applied to all cash, and couldn't find an answer on the web site.   Thanks.
  • Create New...