-
General Statistics
-
Total Topics22,121
-
Total Posts92,994
-
Total Members42,506
-
Most Online7,522
10/06/21 10:53
-
-
-
Posts
-
Greetings, fellow Forex enthusiasts! Today, I want to delve into the captivating world of economic data and its profound impact on currency exchange rates. As forex traders, we find ourselves in an exhilarating realm where numbers and statistics intertwine with market dynamics. Economic data, such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures, form an essential foundation for making informed trading decisions. Let's first acknowledge the significance of GDP growth. A country's economic performance, as reflected in its GDP, holds tremendous sway over its currency's strength. When a nation experiences robust GDP growth, it often signifies increased productivity, higher consumer spending, and enhanced investor confidence. Forex traders closely monitor GDP growth rates, as they can indicate a prosperous economy, leading to a potentially stronger currency value. Next, let's explore inflation rates. Inflation refers to the general increase in prices of goods and services over time. When inflation rises, a currency's purchasing power diminishes, causing its value to decline. Forex traders are keenly attuned to inflation figures, as they provide insights into the stability of a country's economy. Higher inflation rates may prompt central banks to implement tighter monetary policies, such as raising interest rates, to curb inflation. These actions can influence currency exchange rates and guide traders' strategies. Furthermore, employment figures hold a crucial place in the realm of forex trading. A country's employment situation reflects the health of its labor market and overall economic vitality. When employment figures indicate a robust job market with low unemployment rates, it often leads to increased consumer spending and economic growth. Forex traders keenly monitor employment data to gauge the strength and stability of a country's economy, as it can impact the value of its currency. In conclusion, economic data acts as a compass, guiding forex traders in their decision-making process. The intricate relationship between GDP growth, inflation rates, employment figures, and currency exchange rates is a testament to the interconnectedness of the global economy. By diligently analyzing and interpreting economic data, we can make more informed trading decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence. Remember, staying informed is key. Embrace the power of economic data and let it illuminate your path to success in the exciting world of forex trading! Happy trading, everyone! -
Indices remain bid amid risk-on sentiment Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as the Fed is no longer expected to hike rates at its June meeting. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 05 June 2023 FTSE 100 nears last week’s high Towards the end of last week the FTSE 100 bounced off its two-month low at 7,433 as the US agreed to raise its debt ceiling, China was preparing new measures to support its property market and solid US labour data but a higher-than-expected unemployment rate at 3.7% and stabilising wage growth gave the US Federal Reserve (Fed) room for a pause in June. For FTSE 100 bulls to be fully back in control, the high seen a couple of weeks ago at 7,660 would need to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis this week. Above it lie the 7,679 and 7,706 mid-May lows and meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,718. Slips should find around the 26 May low at 7,556 or along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,718. Source: Bloomberg DAX 40 flirts with late May high at 16,080 The DAX 40 flirts with its late May high at 16,080, having formed a potentially bullish Hammer formation on the weekly candlestick chart amid broad global risk-on sentiment towards the end of last week. A rise and daily chart close above the 16,080 high would open the way for the May all-time record high at 16,333 to be reached. Minor support only comes in around last Wednesday’s high at 15,928, ahead of the breached May-to-June downtrend line at 15,900. Source: Bloomberg S&P 500 trades near Friday’s nine-month high On Friday, the S&P 500 rallied to a nine-month high at 4,290, close to its August 2022 peak at 4,325, both of which will remain in focus as long as risk-on sentiment prevails. With more and more market participants expecting the Fed not to raise rates at the June meeting and helped by a new Chinese stimulus package for its struggling property market, stock markets continue to look short-term bid. Potential retracements should find good support between the mid- to late May highs at 4,234 to 4,214. Source: Bloomberg -
Australia's six-quarter economic growth may slow in Q1 2023, prompting speculation of RBA rate hike pause. Markets watch RBA guidance, household spending, net exports, and AUD/USD trends. Source: Bloomberg Forex Economic growth GDP AUD/USD Export Australia Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 05 June 2023 On Wednesday at 11:30 am, the Australian Q1 2023 GDP is poised for a decline. In the December quarter (Q4) of 2022, Australia's economic growth rose by 0.5% QoQ or 2.7% YoY, slowing down from 5.9% YoY in the September quarter (Q3). Net trade (due to increased exports and fall in imports) and consumption primarily drove the GDP growth in the December quarter. Expectations for Q1 2023 For Q1 2023, GDP is expected to rise by 0.3% QoQ or 2.5% YoY. Although this would mark a sixth consecutive quarter of economic expansion, it would also denote the slowest pace since the 2% fall in the September quarter of 2021. The expectations range significantly, from -0.2% to +0.5%. As articulated in the Statement of Monetary Policy in May, the RBA anticipates slower growth as it endeavours to control inflation and balance the labour market via higher interest rates. A dive into the details Household spending, driven by robust services consumption including hotels, cafes, restaurants, and transport services, is projected to contribute positively to the growth. The household saving ratio, which dropped from 7.1% to 4.5% in Q4, is forecasted to decline further as household spending exceeds growth in disposable income, thereby prompting consumers to utilise their savings to offset the cost of living and mortgage pressures. Net exports, which surged by 1.1% in Q4, are anticipated to detract -0.5% percentage points from growth in Q1 2023 due to softer commodity prices and weaker volumes. In Q4, Australia's Terms of Trade rose 0.6% as growth in export prices outpaced import prices. Since then, Australia’s Terms of Trade have turned lower, which suggests a flat outcome is likely in Q1. GDP growth rate YoY Source: TradingEconomics Impact on markets The release of Q1 2023 GDP just a day after the RBA's June Board meeting means that markets are likely to prioritise understanding the implications of the RBA's forward-looking guidance rather than a retrospective GDP print. That said, a GDP of 0.5% QoQ or higher would amplify expectations of further RBA rate hikes, supporting the AUD/USD while posing risks to the ASX 200. Conversely, a GDP of 0.1% QoQ or less would fuel speculation that the RBA has concluded its rate hiking cycle and is ready for an extended pause. Forecast for the AUD/USD The AUD/USD concluded last week higher at .6607 (1.34%), bolstered by stronger commodity prices and upside surprises in the monthly CPI indicator and wage increase at the Fair Work Commissions Review. This suggests the RBA may implement another rate hike, if not in June, then possibly in July. In technical terms, the AUD/USD's close back above .6565 (range lows) currently mitigates the downside risks that followed the sell-off in late May. On the upside, resistance from the 200-day moving average is seen at .6700c, ahead of a solid resistance barrier from range highs at .6800/20c. On the downside, a break of support at .6565 and then of the May 31st .6458 low would put the support at .6350 on the market's radar. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of June 5, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
-
Question
Joseph2020
I would like to buy Pounds/USD, but it is data only,
Link to comment
1 answer to this question
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now