US Indices Specific

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

The real issue (for me at least) is that some people get privileged treatment while others don't.

It is bound to erode trust in government and society.

UK looks to have a high death rate but only because there is no testing (so low number of confirmed cases vs number of deaths), even nhs staff can't get a test but old jug ears got a test at the first sign of a sniffle. 

[HPbrand]

10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

The real issue (for me at least) is that some people get privileged treatment while others don't.

It is bound to erode trust in government and society.

The real issue is people need to wake up and think for themselves if something is hyped beyond all proportion. Getting emotional does not get you the real answer, it only gets you screwed in one way or another.

[dmedin]

Humm, well the bottom and reversal looks obvious on a daily ...

[HPbrand]

I decided to place a trade now instead of tomorrow. Probability wise, its safe. Direction for tomorrow is up. Who is going long?

[HPbrand]

It does not look too good for now. Let's see if the closing will be higher than yesterday.

My gut feeling still leaning towards up day backed by probabilities. I feel its too early for the trap to reverse back down. I was thinking perhaps this weekend or sometime next week for the bomber if it happens.

I'm the first to admit eating my fat juicy humble pie if I get today's trade wrong. 

[HPbrand]

I wonder if I can get out at break even or even a profit today. Not too far away. Would be a bummer to lose back to the market a bit at the end of the week.

Still working on getting my system nearer to 10/10 winning ratio. Will never get there, but near 9/10 would be fantastic.

Regardless, the volatility next week will offer great opportunities.

Edited March 27, 2020 by HPbrand

[dmedin]

22 hours ago, HPbrand said:

I decided to place a trade now instead of tomorrow. Probability wise, its safe. Direction for tomorrow is up. Who is going long?

Yes!

[HPbrand]

Just got out 🤭🤭🤭

 

@dmedin,

 

Hope you done ok today.

Edited March 27, 2020 by HPbrand

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, HPbrand said:

Just got out 🤭🤭🤭

 

@dmedin,

 

Hope you done ok today.

I quit at 19:30 while I was still ahead 😱

[HPbrand]

This week is a crucial week for US indices I think especially end of the week. If we are going to see extreme Dow soon, the market will let us know. 

The volatility is expected to pick up so money can probably be made in both directions with 1000+ points move again. I personally would not go long for a couple days. There are positions trapped right now going long from last week so I would guess some will be forced to endure some pain, unless they volunteer to take losses.

[HPbrand]

I think it is possible again this week for the price to accelerate and the markets halts trading only to reverse when trading resumes. Position trading is probably a safer option this week.

[HPbrand]

I said previously that this week is of high importance (crucial) for US indices. I think I have the direction for this coming Friday to next Monday figured out 🤭🤭🤭. 

You better be on the right side and not over leveraged if you plan to place bets. Trust me, it will be violent. 

Careful dmedin.

Edited April 2, 2020 by HPbrand

[HPbrand]

It's not a one way direction to home run unless you are betting way below your means which means you won't be taking full advantage of the volatility to make more money. But increasing the bets risk getting you trapped and receiving the call.

Recent volatility and forthcoming volatility does not come all the time. All traders ought to transition and learn to make money from trading full time because it might be the only viable job available that pays in the not too far future.

Good luck!

Edited April 2, 2020 by HPbrand

[Tradesman9001]

1 hour ago, HPbrand said:

All traders ought to transition and learn to make money from trading full time because it might be the only viable job available that pays in the not too far future.

And what a value-packed world that would be.

[HPbrand]

Eat your brunch soon if you haven't already. US indices will go berserk today and likely through to Monday. I wonder if 2000 points move is in play 🤔.

[dmedin]

8 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Eat your brunch soon if you haven't already. US indices will go berserk today and likely through to Monday. I wonder if 2000 points move is in play 🤔.

Has Doobie got a secret ace up his sleeve? 🧐

Edited April 3, 2020 by dmedin

[HPbrand]

Not moving enough so far. Let's see if more action later today and going into Monday.

Going to the supermarket to buy some food. This is the downside for not able to afford a full time housekeeper to live with me. I have to do it myself.

[Moin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-uk-business-activity-plunges-to-lowest-ebb-since-records-began?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_WhatsApp

[Moin]

Unemployment in US and UK may 'rise above Great Depression'

[HPbrand]

The Dow did not reach the level I expected today so the probability has decreased for a big drop. I have reduced my short position drastically instead of closing completely as there is still a probable chance of further decline.

[HPbrand]

I shall continue to hold out with a small bet for a further decline till end of week. Probability wise, a drop is still of statistical significance althought this has reduced since targets were not hit on friday. I shall also open a small long hedge when market open and increase the holding of either direction depending which side the probability dip when more data presents itself.

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, HPbrand said:

I shall continue to hold out with a small bet for a further decline till end of week. Probability wise, a drop is still of statistical significance althought this has reduced since targets were not hit on friday. I shall also open a small long hedge when market open and increase the holding of either direction depending which side the probability dip when more data presents itself.

 

The Fed might pump lots of free money in to reflate the market but I can’t see a sustained high with lots of public participation from here, any rally from here is a ‘zombie’ rally propped up by trillions of fake (and free) cash from the central banks.

[dmedin]

Trading / investing only works for people who are already rich.  It’s all just a total crock of ****.

[HPbrand]

Anybody that shares my view of market decline in the near term should not close the shorts if already open. Any highs is most likely a fake rally so just profit from the long positions but keep the shorts. If the decline does happen it will be bad.

The coordinated effort to create this "panic" to crash the market temporarily is not done yet. Small business owners must be stripped of their wealth completely. If not by this round, 2021, 2022 and 2023 should do the trick.

[HPbrand]

It's not time yet to short or increase short position. This rally should last till late this week or early next week.

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

It's not time yet to short or increase short position. This rally should last till late this week or early next week.

US hospital admissions going down last couple of days, markets thinking lockdown could be over sooner rather than latter, certainly the early modelling projections are looking well overdone. 

[HPbrand]

On 06/04/2020 at 02:13, dmedin said:

Trading / investing only works for people who are already rich.  It’s all just a total crock of ****.

Rich people don't need to trade. Never look to them for advice. They mostly live off the investments they or their family made.

Trading is a great opportunity for you to become millionaire+. Remember trading is not only trading the markets, but also trading against other participants.

If you scalp, you scalp without worrying about longer market direction. Treat it like 1 night stand, get in and get out immediately you are done and never look back.

If you swing trade, you need to have the nerve to hold positions whether big or small for a little longer to see a return, like a gf investment by paying in advance before getting action.

You decide what suits your personality and how much time you have to analyse. Drill it in your head that you can do this and make the committment. If you cannot do this, close your account and get wage job whilst you still can because people like me will take your money.

[HPbrand]

9 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

US hospital admissions going down last couple of days, markets thinking lockdown could be over sooner rather than latter, certainly the early modelling projections are looking well overdone. 

There is still a significant chance for a drop near the middle to end of this month. We should be reaching the peak around that time for the Northern hemisphere. It's not guaranteed it will drop hence I would only hold a small short position if already open and start to short a bit later if it transpires.

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

If you scalp, you scalp without worrying about longer market direction. Treat it like 1 night stand, get in and get out immediately you are done and never look back.

If you swing trade, you need to have the nerve to hold positions whether big or small for a little longer to see a return, like a gf investment by paying in advance before getting action.

From my (limited) experience so far, scalping can limit your risk if you've got discipline and patience.  You have to be able to go for a long time without trading if markets are all standing still.  This could be a reason why so many 'successful' traders are actually doing a lot of hustling on the side with training, seminars, teaching and writing books etc.

Swing trading is by far and away the less risky and more reliable proposition, you will have to withstand substantial drawdowns against your unrealized profits but there's  far higher probability that the price will eventually go back in your favour - at which point all you need to do is add to your existing position.  You are perfectly fine during quiet periods on the market because you've already got a winning position on, so you can relax and concentrate on something else.

So, you can see which direction I'm swinging in now.

Edited April 7, 2020 by dmedin

[HPbrand]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

You have to be able to go for a long time without trading if markets are all standing still.  This could be a reason why so many 'successful' traders are actually doing a lot of hustling on the side with training, seminars, teaching and writing books etc.

Swing trading is by far and away the less risky and more reliable proposition, you will have to withstand substantial drawdowns against your unrealized profits but there's  far higher probability that the price will eventually go back in your favour - at which point all you need to do is add to your existing position.  You are perfectly fine during quiet periods on the market because you've already got a winning position on, so you can relax and concentrate on something else.

So, you can see which direction I'm swinging in now.

Traders making money do not need to sell any products. Their products do not work or they will not share with you. Drill that in your head mate. Look at like a businessman. If you don't believe me, buy all the books and attend all the seminars of these "successful traders". Even that super trader forgot his name, the one that got famous shorting in 1987 and then worked for George Soros. He is selling products now 😂😂