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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

substantial drawdowns against your unrealized profits

 

This is the proposition of Mark Ritchie in his interview for the book 'The New Market Wizards', but of course it's not unique to him and he didn't originate it - but it makes total sense.

For me it fits perfectly, because my experience from trading short time frame is UTTERLY FKING DISASTROUS!  But from IG's point of view it's great because they wrack up money every time I trade - the more I trade, the more money they make!  :D

Edited by dmedin
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I've no idea how this is going to play out, just when you think it can't go any lower...it does as the bad news keeps coming out. The big question is when does it turn? When the news changes to countr

I agree, definitely way too early... Here's a S&P500 chart covering the dotcom and 2008 crashes. Waiting for a few green months before buying seems to be like a simple signal. You miss out on

I know its hard to believe, but > Dow 20000 is coming within weeks if not within days. There might be a sudden fake rally but going long right now hoping for Dow 28000 (or something ridiculous) is

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On 07/04/2020 at 09:25, dmedin said:

From my (limited) experience so far, scalping can limit your risk if you've got discipline and patience.  You have to be able to go for a long time without trading if markets are all standing still.  This could be a reason why so many 'successful' traders are actually doing a lot of hustling on the side with training, seminars, teaching and writing books etc.

Swing trading is by far and away the less risky and more reliable proposition, you will have to withstand substantial drawdowns against your unrealized profits but there's  far higher probability that the price will eventually go back in your favour - at which point all you need to do is add to your existing position.  You are perfectly fine during quiet periods on the market because you've already got a winning position on, so you can relax and concentrate on something else.

So, you can see which direction I'm swinging in now.

 

I want you all (all three or four people who will actually bother to read anything I write :D ) to know that I am not a bullsh!tter and I put my money where my mouth is, unlike your 'market analysts' who would never trade their own money on their own analyses.  I have, in the last two days, seen a drawndown on my unrealized profits from about £1200 to £200.

But that's better that my previous performance from 'scalping', where unrealized profits were simply cold hard losses against my remaining equity. 

Hey, I'm still losing money like a motherf*ker but at least I've got a great bullsh!t excuse to feel more positive about it now.  :P

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

I have, in the last two days, seen a drawndown on my unrealized profits from about £1200 to £200.

Hey, I'm still losing money like a motherf*ker but at least I've got a great bullsh!t excuse to feel more positive about it now.  :P

In my humble opinion, if you follow my opinion how to trade the US indices, you will make money over the longer term. This is no guarantee but I think the probability is higher than what you are doing now.

 

Also try not to dip in every market available to man.  If US indices is not for you try and focus on something you like and watch it day and night to have an idea of the general price movement. Again just my opinion.

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£200 has gone back up to £500 🤔

Scalping ain't for me... high level of stress and effort for an uncertain return and nothing worse than charting all day and coming away with a loss.

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13 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

It's an up day as I thought. The drop might come on Friday.

Yes but how big of a drop?  A drop in the context of a rally (retracement), or a resumption of the downtrend?  🤓

Edited by dmedin
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My drawdown went from almost complete (£61 profit) in the morning to back up to £900 today (this is without putting any new positions on or closing any)  As I said before, I'd rather see massive drawdowns of a profit than take direct losses from scalping or day trading.

Edited by dmedin
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I would take the money if I were you. As for the drop, you need to figure out for yourself how much is likely. There might not even be a drop. We all look at the same charts and numbers.

Edited by HPbrand
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26 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

I would take the money if I were you. As for the drop, you need to figure out for yourself how much is likely. There might not even be a drop. We all look at the same charts and numbers.

I don't see any evidence that there will be a drop tomorrow.  It may of course happen.

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2 hours ago, HPbrand said:

I would take the money if I were you

I think I've explained a dozen times if not more that this is a stupid idea ... I've tried it and I'm thousands of pounds down.  Ride a trend while it's still in play.

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BREAKING NEWS

 

 

Super trader Andy Krieger is offering his course absolutely free. Want to learn how to make $300 million in one deal??

 

GO AND SIGN UP. What are you waiting for?

  • Great! 1
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Did not realise Friday (tomorrow) is closed for Easter. Don't have school runs to remind me. So today should be the high and the drop should happen after today. Do your own research and happy Easter to all!

  • Great! 1
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8 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Did not realise Friday (tomorrow) is closed for Easter. Don't have school runs to remind me. So today should be the high and the drop should happen after today. Do your own research and happy Easter to all!

Big dump starting now I think :D

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2 hours ago, HPbrand said:

Did not realise Friday (tomorrow) is closed for Easter. Don't have school runs to remind me. So today should be the high and the drop should happen after today. Do your own research and happy Easter to all!

Well, the drop didn't happen today.

But if you keep calling it, it will happen eventually.  :D

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The low 18000 level Dow recently caught many by surprise. Slowly it is creeping back up. I think this is creating a false sense of security letting everyone think it is only up from here on. Everything is priced in already right? It is a psychological trap more like. To take more money from people I think we will be revisiting the previous low in the near future and then going much much lower. Definitely will catch more people off guard if it happens. That will wipe most accounts and pensions clean. That is the goal. Make more citizens begging for pittance.

Just an opinion so don't take it seriously. 

Edited by HPbrand
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8 hours ago, HPbrand said:

Just an opinion so don't take it seriously. 

 

At some point the Federal Reserve will just buy up all the securities (or the parties who receive money from the Fed will do so), so we've probably seen the bottom.

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After observing the price movement of the US indices for another week, my conclusion has not changed. The probability is high for a big drop. The exact timing, not sure yet but if not April then May. 

I think to justify the big drop to take everyone out, they will take the US indices higher first to lead the sheeple in for the slaughter. The higher it goes, the bigger the drop.

A v8 model make sense. Oil price is not going anywhere soon so why not some fun whilst it last?!  

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As always there are 2 scenarios😎 (left chart and right chart)

And we may see the drop next year to a new low?

At the moment i favor the left scenario (DAX 1998 asia-crises) and try to find some cheap calls during the summer when volatility goes down to more normal levels? ( maybe NDX?)

 

1998 1929.png

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On 18/04/2020 at 09:47, Kodiak said:

As always there are 2 scenarios😎 (left chart and right chart)

And we may see the drop next year to a new low?

At the moment i favor the left scenario (DAX 1998 asia-crises) and try to find some cheap calls during the summer when volatility goes down to more normal levels? ( maybe NDX?)

 

1998 1929.png

You are right mate, there are always 2 scenarios. I agree with your assessment of lower volatility in the summer. I think it will be near US election time when the volatility is through the roof.

Right now, Dow Jones could still climb several hundred points before the drop based on probability. To go higher beyond that level for now is very unlikely. The drop has a good chance of happening before June. Psychologically, the big drop will catch people out and that is what it is all about. I said before the orchestrated market crash last month is not the end. Too much effort has gone into the drama show. This is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong.

I personally would still have a small long position. But the moment I feel is right and it will be obvious, I'm in for the short.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Update

 

The estimation as of last week was possible for the Dow to climb several hundred points before the drop. Market progression now suggest Dow 25000-26000+ is possible before the drop.

 

The most important factor is to see how the rest of this week plays out. If it starts to show decline, then the direction is down. If it inches upwards, then the top could be 2000+ points before reversing.

 

So no need to rush to place big bets yet. Keep a small long position relative to account  for now is a safe strategy.

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