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How long will this bear market last?


dmedin

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No one knows thats for sure

But probably two scenarios? (1987 or 1929?)

bear%20market%20comp.jpg?itok=BjHlQtTj

 

Big bear, then we are in the first wave down and are in for a pullback (bear market rally) thinking the worst is behind us 

Then the third wave start and would probably chrash the market for a long time (years?)

 

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But lets hope that all the stimulus and free money from the centralbanks can stop the bloodbath and play out like 1987 on dow and 1998 on Dax?

I remember back in 1998 when DAX had a ugly fall, 40% in twelve weeks and some stocks 60-70% (had som stocks back then)

But then it all went straight up and reach a new ATH

So lets hope for the best and be prepared for the worst😊

 

DAX 1998.png

Edited by Kodiak
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39 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

So lets hope for the best and be prepared for the worst😊

 

I hope so, and I thought the umpteen trillions pumped in to the economy was a sign of the bottom (and I lost all my profits in the process) but it makes sense to me now.

If everyday life is shut down to the stupid extent that it is now, a stock market rally makes no sense.  All that 'stimulus' is doing is throwing fuel on to the fire.  The money needed to go directly into the real economy to be effective. 

The stock market won't turn bullish while people can't wipe their dirty buttholes or buy food from the supermarket or go out to enjoy themselves at night.

Edited by dmedin
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Quote

Bullard’s ballpark estimate is that unemployment could hit 30%, higher than in the Great Depression and three times more than the 2007-2009 recession. Output in the second quarter could be half the norm, a hit of about $2.5 trillion.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-fed-bullard-interv/feds-bullard-coronavirus-shutdown-not-a-recession-but-an-investment-in-survival-idUKKBN2190EC?il=0

 

A wee while, then?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Dow 2020, 1987,1929

I suppose 99% expect a retest of the low or a new low and thinking of buy the low?

so probably grinding higher and take out some shorts?  a new leg up? (if a three wave bear market rally we have done a and b and now c?)

So my "guess" more upside and suck in some longs before the next leg down?

And then we maybe get a retest of the low and se how much ETFs FED will buy?

 

 

 

 

 

DOW 2020-1929-1987.png

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From a psychological point of view, the depression seems to be just starting to sink in.  If that view is correct then an eventual recovery (significant and sustained change in psychology) won't come for many months - many people have already written off 2020 (the entire year).

I also believe it will take a big, concerted effort to lift people's spirits again after this.

Edited by dmedin
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58 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Dow 2020, 1987,1929

I suppose 99% expect a retest of the low or a new low and thinking of buy the low?

so probably grinding higher and take out some shorts?  a new leg up? (if a three wave bear market rally we have done a and b and now c?)

So my "guess" more upside and suck in some longs before the next leg down?

And then we maybe get a retest of the low and se how much ETFs FED will buy?

 

 

 

 

 

DOW 2020-1929-1987.png

 

 

So really the sensible thing to have done was to go short some time ago, possibly adding shorts on rallies.  Trying to trade in and out on a daily basis just leads to frustration and lost money, as these intra-day consolidations are more or less random noise.

Sounds like a familiar story.

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Got called an '@rsehole' for walking too close to an Australian woman on my way from Lidl today.


At times like these people's REAL natures come out.  So f&king glad I didn't marry one of these ***** :D

Edited by dmedin
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Yes...lots of people reacting in strange ways right now......Keep smiling....

How long will it all last? I know it sounds boring....but forget the noise (harder said then done) and watch the charts...the trend is your only friend....

That said....down for april.....sell in may and come back in june!!

Dan

 

  

 

 

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8 hours ago, dan-is-dead said:

Yes...lots of people reacting in strange ways right now......Keep smiling....

How long will it all last? I know it sounds boring....but forget the noise (harder said then done) and watch the charts...the trend is your only friend....

That said....down for april.....sell in may and come back in june!!

Dan

 

  

 

 

 

Charts-wise, I see several waves down - each time stupid f*king idiots (such as me) think a bottom has been reached and lose a lot of money.  But in hindsight they are all just little rallies that got sold into.

Who knows what will happen if the Fed hoovers up all the shares and seriously manipulates the market?  That, and a ban on short selling, would turn the stock market itself into a zombie - a corpse brought back to 'life' by artificial, necromantic methods.

Edited by dmedin
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