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Covid and the Economy


Caseynotes

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On 22/03/2020 at 10:01, andysinclair said:

Please, please, please STAY AT HOME.

Only visit the supermarket if absolutely necessary and keep your distance from other people. We all need to work together to stop this virus spreading and overloading our health system.

I concur - this is the only sound advice.

This is NOT the flu.  If you think only 2% death rate is an acceptable figure, imagine the condition of the 18 year old's parents on a ventilator right now.  Or the wife and child of the 32 year old doctor who was punished for bringing this to the world's attention.  Is it acceptable?  Just because you may survive it does not mean you won't KILL someone else by giving it to them.  The facts are clear if we don't stop infection rates, there is NO way the NHS will cope.  The experts have told us that - WE NEED TO COMPLY.  The NHS staff are at maximum risk because they are being bombarded daily with the droplets from infected people.  There is no cure and even the best minds in Science are working in a high degree of uncertainty.

I apologise if my language appears a bit strong but there is way too much complacency in the populous.

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10 minutes ago, psycho said:

I concur - this is the only sound advice.

This is NOT the flu.  If you think only 2% death rate is an acceptable figure, imagine the condition of the 18 year old's parents on a ventilator right now.  Or the wife and child of the 32 year old doctor who was punished for bringing this to the world's attention.  Is it acceptable?  Just because you may survive it does not mean you won't KILL someone else by giving it to them.  The facts are clear if we don't stop infection rates, there is NO way the NHS will cope.  The experts have told us that - WE NEED TO COMPLY.  The NHS staff are at maximum risk because they are being bombarded daily with the droplets from infected people.  There is no cure and even the best minds in Science are working in a high degree of uncertainty.

I apologise if my language appears a bit strong but there is way too much complacency in the populous.

Well said. I also object to the title of this thread, it is not the WuFlu, it is COVID-19.

The lockdown is to prevent the NHS from being swamped with patients leading to a potential situation where we have medical staff having to decide who lives and who dies. This is serious and we need to take it seriously, saying it is "just the flu" is extremely irresponsible and potentially dangerous.

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4 minutes ago, psycho said:

I concur - this is the only sound advice.

This is NOT the flu.  If you think only 2% death rate is an acceptable figure, imagine the condition of the 18 year old's parents on a ventilator right now.  Or the wife and child of the 32 year old doctor who was punished for bringing this to the world's attention.  Is it acceptable?  Just because you may survive it does not mean you won't KILL someone else by giving it to them.  The facts are clear if we don't stop infection rates, there is NO way the NHS will cope.  The experts have told us that - WE NEED TO COMPLY.  The NHS staff are at maximum risk because they are being bombarded daily with the droplets from infected people.  There is no cure and even the best minds in Science are working in a high degree of uncertainty.

I apologise if my language appears a bit strong but there is way too much complacency in the populous.

you need to study your immunology a bit more, this is a flu virus but a particularly lethal one to the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions with a death rate of 1% instead of the 0.1% for common flu which is why those groups need to be isolated and protected from the general population who will only suffer normal flu like symptoms, we need herd immunity of about 60% before the virus will cease to be a threat. This is why the Govt (as recommended by specialists) started down the immunity route in the first place before flipping just a few days ago.

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3 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

Well said. I also object to the title of this thread, it is not the WuFlu, it is COVID-19.

The lockdown is to prevent the NHS from being swamped with patients leading to a potential situation where we have medical staff having to decide who lives and who dies. This is serious and we need to take it seriously, saying it is "just the flu" is extremely irresponsible and potentially dangerous.

Call it wuflu or the Chinese flu if you like, because as Trump said "it came from China" . The nhs would not be swamped if those most likely to be severely affected were quarantined in the first place. That stats remain constant, 99% of positive cases are either asymptomatic or classified as mild and do not need hospital admission.

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I am not a medic nor an expert in immunology (and never professed to be one).  Numbers such as 1% or even 2% appear be beguilingly low but there are people's lives behind those number. 

@Caseynotes I have a lot of respect for your reading of markets but as far as this is concerned, I defer to the experts in the NHS and science who are trying to save us all.  We first need to control the fatality rate and then investigate solutions.  Herd immunity (which itself is an opinion not a fact as far as covid-19 is concerned) does not mean that some in the herd would not succumb to it - scientists are working with great uncertainty right now so there are no definitives only guesses.  With all due respect, I'd rather not risk my life until we have more certainty.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ shows that the death rate of closed cases so far is 14% so far and of active cases 4% are critical.

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1 minute ago, psycho said:

I am not a medic nor an expert in immunology (and never professed to be one).  Numbers such as 1% or even 2% appear be beguilingly low but there are people's lives behind those number. 

@Caseynotes I have a lot of respect for your reading of markets but as far as this is concerned, I defer to the experts in the NHS and science who are trying to save us all.  We first need to control the fatality rate and then investigate solutions.  Herd immunity (which itself is an opinion not a fact as far as covid-19 is concerned) does not mean that some in the herd would not succumb to it - scientists are working with great uncertainty right now so there are no definitives only guesses.  With all due respect, I'd rather not risk my life until we have more certainty.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ shows that the death rate of closed cases so far is 14% so far and of active cases 4% are critical.

I have a professional medical background and have worked in intensive care units, I have been following the data daily and am confident in the sources and numbers I have stated. Herd immunity is a fact not an opinion in the case of flu epidemics and the advice given to the govt by experts was correct. Quarantine those at risk while population immunity is achieved. Without general immunity the virus will continue to infect, it may disappear over summer but will likely return next winter until the 60% figure is reached.

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15 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I have a professional medical background and have worked in intensive care units

That may be the case but I would place more weight on frontline staff who are currently having to deal with the crisis such as 

 

and the heart wrenching stories of Italian hospital staff

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23 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Can't sit round here educating you guys all day, until Boris organises food deliveries I've got to get down the supermarket and mix it with the general population. I think I'm starting to see some problems with this enforced lockdown gig lol.

Enjoy.  Get me a toilet roll please!

In the meantime, here's a 28 year old who survived

 

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3 minutes ago, psycho said:

Enjoy.  Get me a toilet roll please!

Actually I came back, the queue to get in was over 100 meters long, and this is an asda mega store, so people are having to queue to get food during an isolation lockdown.

does not anyone else see the complete stupidity of this govt created crisis? 

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Stephan Shakespeare @StephanShaxper

New data coming from @YouGov later today, survey of 3k re Coronavirus... About 1% saying they have severe dry cough, other symptoms... 32% ‘fear for their future’ v 54% ‘I think I’ll be ok’... 90% say they will follow gov advice no matter what it is... Lots more coming around 5.

**** Fawkes  @GuidoFawkes

4m

1% of the population is ~700,000 people. Herd immunity won't kick in until 60% plus. NHS has to cope meantime unless a vaccine is developed.

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2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

32% ‘fear for their future’

lol!  People should be more worried about money and jobs ... which were already precarious before the outbreak. 

Life is full of suffering, the same sh!t happening over and over again.  🤣

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

lol!  People should be more worried about money and jobs ... which were already precarious before the outbreak. 

Life is full of suffering, the same sh!t happening over and over again.  🤣

yes they should be more worried about money and jobs now that the govt has decided to completely crash the economy, would have been far cheaper to quarantine the vulnerable = no strain on the nhs and the rest of the herd gains full (60%) immunity quickly, virus dies off then release those in quarantine.

 

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16 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes they should be more worried about money and jobs now that the govt has decided to completely crash the economy, would have been far cheaper to quarantine the vulnerable = no strain on the nhs and the rest of the herd gains full (60%) immunity quickly, virus dies off then release those in quarantine.

 

 

Just like in 2008, bailouts for the banks and austerity for the people.  Joy of joys!  Most jobs are 'bullsh!t jobs' anyway.

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Just like in 2008, bailouts for the banks and austerity for the people.  Joy of joys!  Most jobs are 'bullsh!t jobs' anyway.

not a banking crisis this time, it's businesses that have been forced to close that will need the bailouts, probably come too late for the workers though.

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Hahahaha, our glorious leaders;

Matt Chorley  @MattChorley

BREAKING: Parliament Commons to rise TONIGHT and not come back for at least four weeks One source says: "It's basically turning the lights out"

It's okay, they will still get paid.

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What do Wuflu death rates around the world  tell us?


Well practically nothing really. The 2 factors that determine the death rate are 'number of confirmed cases' and 'number of deaths'.


The number of deaths is easy to work out, it's the number of patients discharged out the back door rather than the front, very easy to count.


The problem lies in confirmed cases because this number is totally dependent on the testing regime which itself is dependent on test kit availability. There is no standardised procedure within any country let alone worldwide.


So are you are testing on;  a) hospital admissions, those with severe symptoms, b) visits to the doctor with mild symptoms as well as hospital admissions, or c) going into the community to test, as well as doctor visits and hospital admissions 


If you have a low test rate there will be low confirmed case numbers vs number of deaths resulting in a high death rate.
If you have a high test rate and so high confirmed case numbers vs deaths = a low death rate.
If you will have very high test rate and so very high confirmed case numbers vs deaths = a very low comparative death rate.


Other factors that also distort the death rate are the facilities available to treat severe cases, poorer countries will have more deaths per pop. Demographics also plays a part, Lombardy has a major Chinese population (over 100,000) brought in to work in the leather industry, northern Italy has direct flights back and forth to Wuhan daily.


So all of the above is why it is more correct to look at a single region with uniform health care and testing regime (as far as possible). Currently the US is the better source of data where the current death rate is 1.2% of confirmed cases. If the most vulnerable portion of the population to this particular flu type were isolated from the general population that figure would of course be much lower.
 

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