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Covid and the Economy


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I thought I had posted this yesterday, must have hit the wrong button. So new govt instructions released yesterday tell us that now it's ok to go to work if you are unable to work from home (previously was 'key workers only'), I'm sure the irony won't be lost on the 10s of thousands who have just lost their jobs due to the business shutdowns.

The ineptitude of the govt has been astounding every step of the way but it's ok now, they've all ******* off for a month long holiday. Great.

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Oh, it is there.

Anyway the name of the flu is still in doubt since the Chinese govt has censored scientists and media alike. In the running was;

A/ The Wuhan Bio-chemical Weapons Facility test sample #322907675 China Flu.

or

B/ The Wuhan Wet Market Food Emporium (Dogs, Bats and Snakes a Specialty) test sample #96638268 China Flu.

Following the govt crackdown now I guess we'll never know¬†¬†ūü§Ē ¬†

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US markets don't seem surprised in over 3 million filing new jobless claims in a week due to the total business shutdown, Dow up 4% so far today. With Trump starting to make noise that this shut down might end sooner rather than later the markets might be thinking this will push things in that direction.

A total shutdown was always a bad idea, as stated many times earlier in this thread, you need to quarantine the vulnerable not the whole population, they are the ones who will overwhelm the health services. The high risk are then safe from the virus while the general population gains herd immunity the majority of whom will be asymptomatic while 10-15% will show normal flu affects needing a week off work. Once there is 60% immunity the virus has nowhere else to go and dies off, then you can release those in quarantine. Locking down the whole population just slows the progress of gaining 60% immunity.

There was never a need for shutting down businesses, sacking 10s of thousands of workers and completely crashing the economy. As shown above a total lock down of the whole population is completely impracticable and unenforceable anyway.

The UK govt was right to begin with going for immunity but did nothing to protect the high risk, when they started filling up the hospitals the govt panicked and flipped to call a for a total lockdown, then the politicians all went off on holiday for a month. Great.

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8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Those East Asian societies are quite different from ours.¬† They can do things that we can't ūüėĪ

The irksome thing is that they all went through¬†this well before us, all we needed to do was to look at their data and plan ahead, we had a month¬†and did nothing, everything seemed to come as a complete surprise and¬†required¬†a kneejerk reaction¬†ūü§ß¬†

Edited by Caseynotes
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3 minutes ago, psycho said:

The thing is Bill Gates can afford not to go to work for the next month. As above South Korea flattened the new cases curve very quickly not by shutting everything down and enforced total population isolation but by mass testing in the community and advising self isolation for those who tested positive 99% of whom had only mild symptoms. 

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The main argument is what is more important: money or life?  Money is reversible, life is not (paraphrasing Gates).  Even if one feels that his/her life is worth less than the money they make, they don't have the right to take that decision for everyone else they come into contact with.

South Korea is a great lesson but the last article I read stated they had a spike which they thought might be the second wave.  Cultural differences also meant that their people respect authority and took seriously the government's recommendations whereas in Britain we took recommendations as suggestions.

 

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

The irksome thing is that they all went through this well before us, all we needed to do was to look at their data and plan ahead, we had a month and did nothing, everything seemed to come as a complete surprise and required a kneejerk reaction

Absolutely right but we are where we are and this is the best guess way of controlling it.  If India can afford to lockdown for 21 days, then so can we.

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8 minutes ago, psycho said:

South Korea is a great lesson but the last article I read stated they had a spike which they thought might be the second wave.  Cultural differences also meant that their people respect authority and took seriously the government's recommendations whereas in Britain we took recommendations as suggestions.

The chart I posted above shows all new cases for South Korea up to yesterday, there is no 'new spike'.

Speaking of 'lifes' remember that 10,000 die of common flu in the UK every year ... so total lock down every winter then?

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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Speaking of 'lifes' remember that 10,000 die of common flu in the UK every year

How many of them are between 18-50?  Italy's death count has just breached 8,000 and that's in the space of 6 weeks!

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10 hours ago, psycho said:

How many of them are between 18-50?  Italy's death count has just breached 8,000 and that's in the space of 6 weeks!

not sure why you can't do your own math but for both common flu and Wuhan flu the under 50s age group typically make up less than 2.5% of total deaths so of 8000 that is 200, nearly all of whom would have had pre-existing medical conditions.

Obviously if Italy had taken note of the Chinese data and isolated the over 70s there would have been no strain on the health service and a likely better survival outcome for others. Same for most other countries.

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President Donald Trump is fighting to find a medical solution for Coronavirus in the short term, expressing hope that the anti-malaria drug Chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine can help patients suffering from the Chinese virus.

The truth is that President Donald Trump is locked in an intense power struggle with Bill Gates, who is pushing his (own) vaccines, which will not be available to the public until after November’s election. Gates has a lot of pull in the medical world, he has a multi-million dollar relationship with Dr. Fauci, and Fauci originally took the Gates line supporting vaccines and casting doubt on Chloroquine.

https://nationalfile.com/amp/president-trump-vs-bill-gates-on-treatment-fauci-has-a-100-million-conflict-of-interest/

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AFP news agency  @AFP

Replying to @AFP

#BREAKING EU leaders give eurozone 15 days to plan virus response

 

No joke this is dated today, so lets come up with a plan now that we are completely inundated and 2 months after receiving warnings and data concerning the coming threat.  

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3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

What ? Met preparing for a major breakdown in law and order.

"London's Met Police asking ' all officers who retired from the Met as police constables or sergeants within the last five years to re-join at those ranks, either on a full or part-time basis."

Considering the feral behaviour on display ...

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