Jump to content

Covid and the Economy


Recommended Posts

an epidemiologist writes;

  • The flattening of the curve we are seeing now is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • UK policy on lockdown and in other European countries is not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished, non-peer-reviewed paper have so much policy impact
  • Is dismissive of the 510,000 figure that was predicted if mitigation measures were not implemented
  • The Imperial College paper was much too pessimistic and did not factor in the now much increased ICU capacity
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway, taking no account of real world specifics
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 will in all likelihood turn out to be in the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will likely be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

https://order-order.com/2020/04/18/must-watch-swedish-epidemiologist-lays-swedens-thinking-video/

 

Link to post
  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Still can't quite work out why we are deliberately destroying the economies of every first world nation because of this flu virus. Yesterday I went shopping at the local mega supermarket where the she

It looks like Trump is surrounded by mercenaries. He does not want complete lockdown in US but other coordinated forces keeping up the pressure. Interesting fact. Both CDC and Johns Hopkins recei

I  follow this page and I saw how Spain became from a nice yellowish spot to a complete red warning place. Mainly because of the great number of tourists that went there in summer. https://www.ec

Posted Images

May 11 proposed start of phased business reopening, wonder how many small businesses will have survived.

Oh and start wearing masks 🤔

 image.png.247a040ef545d7b1f302741737c0e099.png

 

Mind you the well off have been ok;

% of Americans who are able to work from home, based on income percentile

Bottom 25: 9.2%

25-50: 20.1%

50-75: 37.3%

Top 25: 61.5%

Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

image.thumb.png.188a90800e6685496ab908a858f24433.png

image.png.4681f262a3fee5158e1e1c70a7ec0bf2.png

 

  • Thought provoking 1
Link to post
7 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

3m

 

Germany demands compensation from the Chinese Communist government. With our economy shredded, we should do the same - Germany sends China £130billion bill for 'coronavirus damages' – sparks fury in Beijing shr.gs/QckvEQf

Fake news. You mean the editor of a right wing tabloid magazine demanded it. I am sure the Daily Mail editor is writing his demand for 10x that right now. Watch this space... :) 

Link to post

Stephanie Link

@Stephanie_Link

"Certainly remains to be seen but 21 states are expected to end stay-at-home orders by April end. That’s 46% of USA GDP. Worth watching but maybe May will be better..."

image.thumb.png.bdc36553651828b90a6c2563a4a93a4a.png

 

 

Link to post

Berlin to make the wearing of face masks obligatory on public transport April 27th but only needs to be a simple textile mouth and nose covering. This looked like a thing for others to follow so a while back I saved a vid on how to make your own.

 

 

Link to post

Screening tests from Holland and the US are indicating 60% of those positive to the virus or the antibodies were asymptomatic.

Of the other 40% we know 90% of them had only mild symptoms.

Of those who have covid as a cause of death 89% are in the over 65 age group.

Latest estimate for total deaths from covid in the UK have come down from 70,000 to 40,000

We know in an average year 30,000 die from flu or pneumonia.

No longer any talk of a ventilator shortage crisis because there wasn't one.

Govt sources are saying social distancing is working but as the epidemiologist (see posts above) pointed out there was always going to be a spike in deaths as covid attacked the most vulnerable then after that there will be a decline.

Sweden is fast approaching heard immunity with similar covid stats per pop as those who locked down. Sweden did not lockdown or crashed their economy.

 

 

Link to post

Search for "Lilian Franck Trust WHO" documentary on the corruption of this private organisation. Watch the same media hysteria over Swine Flu from a decade ago. This documentary is now banned on Youtube and Vimeo.

People can purchase on itunes and Amazon Prime. For those who are £ conscious, you can watch it on Bitchute for free.

Link to post

I appreciate this thread. But something that does worry me is that a recent poll showed ~90% of people want to keep the lockdown. Therefore I am well out of touch with the average man, as I would have followed something closer to the Sweden model and i'd have those schools open next week.

But it dosent matter what I think, it matters what the majority think. And this thread is a "minority view".

The debate will never be evidence or science based. Look at how many people don't want kids to go to school, despite the under 18 death rate being so low you couldn't make a 5-a-side football match.

Link to post
2 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

I appreciate this thread. But something that does worry me is that a recent poll showed ~90% of people want to keep the lockdown. Therefore I am well out of touch with the average man, as I would have followed something closer to the Sweden model and i'd have those schools open next week.

But it dosent matter what I think, it matters what the majority think. And this thread is a "minority view".

The debate will never be evidence or science based. Look at how many people don't want kids to go to school, despite the under 18 death rate being so low you couldn't make a 5-a-side football match.

That's the story across much of the EU and USA which goes to show what a terrific job main stream media have done in terrifying people. The important thing is to forget the thousands and concentrate on the few statistical outliers who tragically died from covid young and without underlying health problems.

Curiously the panic was started by the Chinese govt and spread to other govts but the Chinese had seen far more deaths from H1N1 so what was it about this that sent them into full lockdown mode? Because they knew which lab it came from perhaps?

 

Link to post
On 21/04/2020 at 07:18, Caseynotes said:

Stephanie Link

@Stephanie_Link

"Certainly remains to be seen but 21 states are expected to end stay-at-home orders by April end. That’s 46% of USA GDP. Worth watching but maybe May will be better..."

image.thumb.png.bdc36553651828b90a6c2563a4a93a4a.png

 

 

:(

 

Link to post
21 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

But it dosent matter what I think, it matters what the majority think. And this thread is a "minority view".

The majority have low IQ. The same majority that are failures in life and looking for the next reason to justify their shortcomings and never think for themselves. Could this majority be the same group losing money consistently trading the markets?

The universe need losers to exist for winners to excel.

Link to post
1 hour ago, HPbrand said:

The majority have low IQ

 

I'm starting to wonder about your IQ ... 

IQ is distributed normally around a mean, meaning that half of the people are below 100 and half are above.  Hence the majority cannot be below average.

A bit like how when you ask men about their driving skills, most of them will say they are above average which is statistically nonsense  :D 

Link to post
21 hours ago, dmedin said:

I'm starting to wonder about your IQ ... 

IQ is distributed normally around a mean, meaning that half of the people are below 100 and half are above.  Hence the majority cannot be below average.

Since you are referring to the Gaussian Dist. then you should know to fall 1 SD either side is very common covering about 68%. Very common meaning very average.  Very average meaning dumb enough not to understand what is going on but enough brain cells to obey rules and follow orders.

Team spirit, team herding and obeying authority blindly without the capacity for independent thinking are these people strong points. So yes, the majority have low IQ to do anything or think anything out of the ordinary. The cookie cutter type near you.

As for my IQ, the US army can't legally recruit me.

  • Like 1
Link to post
On 22/03/2020 at 07:44, Caseynotes said:

"Still can't quite work out why we are deliberately destroying the economies of every first world nation."

What's the alternative Casey? Go back to normal, encourage the spread of the virus, accept a few extra deaths as a cost of doing business? How many deaths are acceptable? If there was no lockdown the virus would be rampant and the costs exponentially more. Life is on hold. You are right to suggest there is something we are not being told. But there is always something we are not being told...

It's a rock and a hard place situation. Most healthy people will be fine. It's those who are not as fit and healthy who are vulnerable. And yes I miss the gym and swimming and sauna talk (what's said in the sauna stays in the sauna), but my wife is vulnerable so I have to wait and trade and walk and drink too much wine more often than normal and eat a bit more than normal. The viable way is herd immunity, but who is in a queue to get it?

 

 

Link to post
On 23/04/2020 at 12:22, Caseynotes said:

😳🤣🤔👇

 

oh come on, no likes? this is brilliant,  Lockdown 'the rules'  "... and if you're home schooling your kids you're allowed to start drinking at 10am ..." 

  • Like 1
Link to post

Interesting the identity of the "epidemiologist" is missing. It's like saying a "doctor" thinks..... It is fact free supposition. Unfortunately. Agree the lockdown is no fun and detrimental to the economy. Healthy people get Covid and die as surely as vulnerable people, though not as many.  Yes, many of us may have had it but as there is a  paucity of testing both for antibodies and the virus how will anyone know?  Unfortunately, I suggest the piece you have sent is in fact, fake news. Sorry.

  • Like 2
Link to post
7 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Interesting the identity of the "epidemiologist" is missing. It's like saying a "doctor" thinks..... It is fact free supposition. Unfortunately. Agree the lockdown is no fun and detrimental to the economy. Healthy people get Covid and die as surely as vulnerable people, though not as many.  Yes, many of us may have had it but as there is a  paucity of testing both for antibodies and the virus how will anyone know?  Unfortunately, I suggest the piece you have sent is in fact, fake news. Sorry.

Why didn't you bother looking back through the thread it's all there ('reprinted from above' I said), don't see why I need to duplicate every detail.

'This interview by Freddie Sayers of Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, who is an advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Sweden’s strategy), is worth 35 minutes of your lockdown viewing time. He lays out Sweden’s thinking'

  • Thought provoking 1
Link to post

Don't forget to clap for our own enslavement every Thursday for frontline NHS workers busy making music and dance videos. They are overworked, suffer from PTSD and witnessing traumatic scenes of sick and dying patients testing positive for COVID 19.

US doctors and nurses are going to find themselves joining the unemployed line soon! No wonder it makes sense for them to start speaking out.

 

Link to post

Whats everyone's view on the UK government opening up test slots today?

Looks like everyone and their dog applied and filled up all the slots. Its very difficult to check if you are a key worker, and you can say someone in your house has symptoms. So basically anyone can get a test?!?!

Looking forward to getting the results back as ~75% of tests come back negative already, and those people are being tested because of actual symptoms seen by a doctor. I expect this new batch will have a very low infection rate!

Link to post
  • CharlotteIG changed the title to Covid and the Economy

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      15,410
    • Total Posts
      73,929
    • Total Members
      62,316
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    creampuff
    Joined 16/06/21 03:41
  • Posts

    • 5 Best Trend Indicators That Tells You the Direction of the Trend (tradingwithrayner.com)
    • MHRA saying the benefits outweigh the risks of the experimental vaccines for children looks to be a lie. Myocarditis followed by CoViD-19 vaccines: A cause for concern or a reversible minor effect? | The BMJ The experts are saying more research is urgently needed. Children are at no real risk from Covid, mild symptoms and natural immunity thereafter if they do catch it, but but but save granny, the vulnerable have already been vaccinated. So why the push that everyone on the planet gets the jab as soon as possible? SAGE are already suggesting these vaccines don't work and are no more affective than an annual flu shot. Annual flu shots have been around for a long time, they are hit or miss in that they are based on the previous years dominant strain which may or may not be the current season's dominate strain, if not the shots won't work. So the 'booster' shots being planned are really just big pharma continually chasing after the next dominant variant. So this will go on forever. My own immune system works better than that without any experimental mRNA and DNA altering drugs.   Meanwhile the 'Fire Fauci' bill is going ahead plus a public condemnation of the Chinese development of biological weapons.    
    • You need to get hung up on them, because they happen - I know for a fact that during 2007-09 bear market you could have traded long and made money, because I did it, but the easiest route was shorting and down Get a chart WEEKLY of any forex market or commodity - go back as far as poss and notice the big turns/swings - much more volatile than the SP500 - there's a reason for that  I always say anyone who's making a packet from trading or Investing on SP500 etc go have a crack at the forex or commodity markets - the stock markets natural direction is UPWARDS - especially buy and holders, fund managers would get ripped apart on the forex + comm markets OK - Its totally Impossible to know EXACTLY what the SP500 is going to do on a daily/weekly basis, but it WAS possible to know that a) 2007-09 was going to be a bear market before 2007 even arrived and b) that the market would stop around the level it did.  But this is ultra advanced and very few people are bothered about it I've written a thread on Time Cycles on here - it covers what the SP500 is doing in terms of TIME - if you understand it and think about it, it will put you ahead of 99.99999% of traders out there, because these really big corrections and crashes do not happen out of the blue - they are predictable and forecastable with high reliability years in advance  Look at the chart below - think about what I'm saying: In 1909 WD Gann said that markets always seek their gravity centre, the half way point - that's the 50% level to you and I Traders go on about fib levels - the 50% level is clearly much more important a level  What if you KNEW 1974, 2003 and 2009 should be low points? What an opportunity both long and short! This is why I researched and spent hundreds of hours on Time and Time Cycles for - I missed 2000-2009 because I didn't know what I know now, but I know when the next ones are and I have no plans of missing them These are key once in a lifetime turn points that don't happen often So what I'm trying to point out is that on the stock market the big plunges like 07-09 aren't the norm, but they do happen with very regular intervals, that will catch a lot of people out during certain cycles that the market moves through. with regards to identifying bear markets - yes using a MA to say price below this level is bearish, but it's already bearish as it approaches the level if using price formations such as lower lows etc You don't need to know what I've discovered about time to be able to trade successfully - I was just intrigued if it was possible to be able to time the really big turns etc as I'd prefer to to know if it was    
×
×
  • Create New...