Covid and the Economy

[Caseynotes]

an epidemiologist writes;

• The flattening of the curve we are seeing now is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• UK policy on lockdown and in other European countries is not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
• The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
• The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished, non-peer-reviewed paper have so much policy impact
• Is dismissive of the 510,000 figure that was predicted if mitigation measures were not implemented
• The Imperial College paper was much too pessimistic and did not factor in the now much increased ICU capacity
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway, taking no account of real world specifics
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 will in all likelihood turn out to be in the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will likely be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

https://order-order.com/2020/04/18/must-watch-swedish-epidemiologist-lays-swedens-thinking-video/

 

[Caseynotes]

Sweden is seeing a drop off in numbers hospitalised due to covid (as is the rest of Europe) but without the enforced population lockdown and or business closures.

Data FT.

[Caseynotes]

May 11 proposed start of phased business reopening, wonder how many small businesses will have survived.

Oh and start wearing masks 🤔

 

 

Mind you the well off have been ok;

% of Americans who are able to work from home, based on income percentile

Bottom 25: 9.2%

25-50: 20.1%

50-75: 37.3%

Top 25: 61.5%

Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

 

[HPbrand]

COVID-19 = Certificate of Virus ID-1984

I say that here now.

[Caseynotes]

Harriet Sergeant @HarrietSergeant

3m

 

Germany demands compensation from the Chinese Communist government. With our economy shredded, we should do the same - Germany sends China £130billion bill for 'coronavirus damages' – sparks fury in Beijing shr.gs/QckvEQf

[Caseynotes]

Covid related deaths in hospitals latest chart shows continued drop;

[sandmonster]

7 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Harriet Sergeant @HarrietSergeant

3m

 

Germany demands compensation from the Chinese Communist government. With our economy shredded, we should do the same - Germany sends China £130billion bill for 'coronavirus damages' – sparks fury in Beijing shr.gs/QckvEQf

Fake news. You mean the editor of a right wing tabloid magazine demanded it. I am sure the Daily Mail editor is writing his demand for 10x that right now. Watch this space...  

[Caseynotes]

Stephanie Link

@Stephanie_Link

"Certainly remains to be seen but 21 states are expected to end stay-at-home orders by April end. That’s 46% of USA GDP. Worth watching but maybe May will be better..."

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Berlin to make the wearing of face masks obligatory on public transport April 27th but only needs to be a simple textile mouth and nose covering. This looked like a thing for others to follow so a while back I saved a vid on how to make your own.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Trading Floor Audio @TradeFloorAudio

37m

 

Could Sweden Have Got Virus Response Right ???? Sweden resisted a lockdown and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks ... CNBC Unlike its neighbors, Sweden did not impose a lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-…

[Caseynotes]

"There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns

Comparing US states shows there is no relationship between lockdowns and lower Covid-19 deaths."

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

[Caseynotes]

[Caseynotes]

Screening tests from Holland and the US are indicating 60% of those positive to the virus or the antibodies were asymptomatic.

Of the other 40% we know 90% of them had only mild symptoms.

Of those who have covid as a cause of death 89% are in the over 65 age group.

Latest estimate for total deaths from covid in the UK have come down from 70,000 to 40,000

We know in an average year 30,000 die from flu or pneumonia.

No longer any talk of a ventilator shortage crisis because there wasn't one.

Govt sources are saying social distancing is working but as the epidemiologist (see posts above) pointed out there was always going to be a spike in deaths as covid attacked the most vulnerable then after that there will be a decline.

Sweden is fast approaching heard immunity with similar covid stats per pop as those who locked down. Sweden did not lockdown or crashed their economy.

 

 

[HPbrand]

Search for "Lilian Franck Trust WHO" documentary on the corruption of this private organisation. Watch the same media hysteria over Swine Flu from a decade ago. This documentary is now banned on Youtube and Vimeo.

People can purchase on itunes and Amazon Prime. For those who are £ conscious, you can watch it on Bitchute for free.

[Bopperz]

I appreciate this thread. But something that does worry me is that a recent poll showed ~90% of people want to keep the lockdown. Therefore I am well out of touch with the average man, as I would have followed something closer to the Sweden model and i'd have those schools open next week.

But it dosent matter what I think, it matters what the majority think. And this thread is a "minority view".

The debate will never be evidence or science based. Look at how many people don't want kids to go to school, despite the under 18 death rate being so low you couldn't make a 5-a-side football match.

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

I appreciate this thread. But something that does worry me is that a recent poll showed ~90% of people want to keep the lockdown. Therefore I am well out of touch with the average man, as I would have followed something closer to the Sweden model and i'd have those schools open next week.

But it dosent matter what I think, it matters what the majority think. And this thread is a "minority view".

The debate will never be evidence or science based. Look at how many people don't want kids to go to school, despite the under 18 death rate being so low you couldn't make a 5-a-side football match.

That's the story across much of the EU and USA which goes to show what a terrific job main stream media have done in terrifying people. The important thing is to forget the thousands and concentrate on the few statistical outliers who tragically died from covid young and without underlying health problems.

Curiously the panic was started by the Chinese govt and spread to other govts but the Chinese had seen far more deaths from H1N1 so what was it about this that sent them into full lockdown mode? Because they knew which lab it came from perhaps?

 

[dmedin]

On 21/04/2020 at 07:18, Caseynotes said:

Stephanie Link

@Stephanie_Link

"Certainly remains to be seen but 21 states are expected to end stay-at-home orders by April end. That’s 46% of USA GDP. Worth watching but maybe May will be better..."

 

 

 

[HPbrand]

21 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

But it dosent matter what I think, it matters what the majority think. And this thread is a "minority view".

The majority have low IQ. The same majority that are failures in life and looking for the next reason to justify their shortcomings and never think for themselves. Could this majority be the same group losing money consistently trading the markets?

The universe need losers to exist for winners to excel.

[Caseynotes]

😳🤣🤔👇

 

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, HPbrand said:

The majority have low IQ

 

I'm starting to wonder about your IQ ... 

IQ is distributed normally around a mean, meaning that half of the people are below 100 and half are above.  Hence the majority cannot be below average.

A bit like how when you ask men about their driving skills, most of them will say they are above average which is statistically nonsense   

[HPbrand]

21 hours ago, dmedin said:

I'm starting to wonder about your IQ ... 

IQ is distributed normally around a mean, meaning that half of the people are below 100 and half are above.  Hence the majority cannot be below average.

Since you are referring to the Gaussian Dist. then you should know to fall 1 SD either side is very common covering about 68%. Very common meaning very average.  Very average meaning dumb enough not to understand what is going on but enough brain cells to obey rules and follow orders.

Team spirit, team herding and obeying authority blindly without the capacity for independent thinking are these people strong points. So yes, the majority have low IQ to do anything or think anything out of the ordinary. The cookie cutter type near you.

As for my IQ, the US army can't legally recruit me.

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, HPbrand said:

the US army can't legally recruit me.

You've got bonespurs too?

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by dmedin

[786Trader]

On 22/03/2020 at 07:44, Caseynotes said:

"Still can't quite work out why we are deliberately destroying the economies of every first world nation."

What's the alternative Casey? Go back to normal, encourage the spread of the virus, accept a few extra deaths as a cost of doing business? How many deaths are acceptable? If there was no lockdown the virus would be rampant and the costs exponentially more. Life is on hold. You are right to suggest there is something we are not being told. But there is always something we are not being told...

It's a rock and a hard place situation. Most healthy people will be fine. It's those who are not as fit and healthy who are vulnerable. And yes I miss the gym and swimming and sauna talk (what's said in the sauna stays in the sauna), but my wife is vulnerable so I have to wait and trade and walk and drink too much wine more often than normal and eat a bit more than normal. The viable way is herd immunity, but who is in a queue to get it?

 

 

[Caseynotes]

On 23/04/2020 at 12:22, Caseynotes said:

😳🤣🤔👇

 

oh come on, no likes? this is brilliant,  Lockdown 'the rules'  "... and if you're home schooling your kids you're allowed to start drinking at 10am ..." 

[Caseynotes]

12 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

 

average deaths from flu and pneumonia in UK every year is 30,000. This year looks like being no different.

reprinted from above.

 

[786Trader]

Interesting the identity of the "epidemiologist" is missing. It's like saying a "doctor" thinks..... It is fact free supposition. Unfortunately. Agree the lockdown is no fun and detrimental to the economy. Healthy people get Covid and die as surely as vulnerable people, though not as many.  Yes, many of us may have had it but as there is a  paucity of testing both for antibodies and the virus how will anyone know?  Unfortunately, I suggest the piece you have sent is in fact, fake news. Sorry.

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Interesting the identity of the "epidemiologist" is missing. It's like saying a "doctor" thinks..... It is fact free supposition. Unfortunately. Agree the lockdown is no fun and detrimental to the economy. Healthy people get Covid and die as surely as vulnerable people, though not as many.  Yes, many of us may have had it but as there is a  paucity of testing both for antibodies and the virus how will anyone know?  Unfortunately, I suggest the piece you have sent is in fact, fake news. Sorry.

Why didn't you bother looking back through the thread it's all there ('reprinted from above' I said), don't see why I need to duplicate every detail.

'This interview by Freddie Sayers of Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, who is an advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Sweden’s strategy), is worth 35 minutes of your lockdown viewing time. He lays out Sweden’s thinking'

[HPbrand]

Don't forget to clap for our own enslavement every Thursday for frontline NHS workers busy making music and dance videos. They are overworked, suffer from PTSD and witnessing traumatic scenes of sick and dying patients testing positive for COVID 19.

US doctors and nurses are going to find themselves joining the unemployed line soon! No wonder it makes sense for them to start speaking out.

 

[HPbrand]

4 hours ago, dmedin said:

You've got bonespurs too?

 

I suffer from Excuseitis.

[Bopperz]

Whats everyone's view on the UK government opening up test slots today?

Looks like everyone and their dog applied and filled up all the slots. Its very difficult to check if you are a key worker, and you can say someone in your house has symptoms. So basically anyone can get a test?!?!

Looking forward to getting the results back as ~75% of tests come back negative already, and those people are being tested because of actual symptoms seen by a doctor. I expect this new batch will have a very low infection rate!