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USDJPY 1 Hour

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Great minds...  Or are we fools, let's see.  One thing to bear in mind is that another touch on the upper line to complete a 1-5 is possible, even likely (or possible a truncated 5).  Either way a break out down is more likely and the reverse would give me pause on the longer term assessment.

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With $-Y I see this now heading towards W2 of W5 and therefore chance they we may be able to join W3, therefore suggest this may be a good time to short cover for now, as we may still have more to go most likely down to the 61% level.

aud usd 2h.pngaud usd 2h.png

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So USD-JPY on a rally again which is to be expected with the DX rallying as well. However, I still maintain a bearish view, unless the current trend breaks the current T-line channel in blue. If this is rejected around the 50-61% level, we could head towards W3 of W5. This could depend on the momentum driver by the results of non-farm payrolls.

aud usd 2h.png

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The price action around the tramline will be key to deciding this markets direction and a few others too. 

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I remain with a medium term Bearish outlook on USDJPY because the previous moves follow an A-B-C retrace up to W4 (blue) on 21 July and the move down since then has not formed a 1-5 nor a lower low than the 24 June Brexit day spike.  Therefore I expect a touch at or near the down-sloping tramline (weekly or daily?) between 10380-410 (outside change of a touch on the Fib 62% from W4 top at 10450).  Any break out rally would have to clear and close above the Fib 62% for confirmation in my view.

 

On the Daily chart you can see the W4 (blue) and a 1-3 down so far with this current rally being a wave 4 (probably) that should conclude on or near the tram lines if correct.  Ont he hourly chart you can see a Triangle retrace at Wave 3 (green), the break of which heralded the current rally.  This rally is also in a Triangle formation so a break out down would signal a resumption of the Bear move.  The whole move up can be described as an A-B-C form with a strong 1-5 wave C.  A reversal at or near the Tramline after a small 1-5 rally and most especially a subsequent break of the lower Triangle line would constitute a Short signal and likely return to below 10000 for me.  I don't think the USD rally is ready yet, especially not if GBP and EUR continue to rally against it but of course NFP casts its usual shadow...

 



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USDJPY looks to have been rejected by the Weekly/Daily resistance tramline and could be about to head lower after a Triangle breakout and retest failure.

 



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things will be greater when your down, down. Hopefully we will now finally break through towards the weekly 61% level.

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Yes indeed.  There is some resistance before that though so could turn at any number of levels after 10,000 but should make 9,800 at least I'm betting. 

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USDJPY will terminate around 9,800 rather than go lower to the Fib 62%.  On my Weekly chart I have a strong support zone around 9,800 and a prior Pennant triangle with an apex at 9,800 and a parallel up-sloping tramline (purple) in the same area.

 

On my Hourly chart I think I have a Flag formation just now. A breakout from this formation to the downside is likely given the overall position of the market.  If proved a Flag, and using the generalisation that the Flag/Pennant flies at half mast (i.e. at the halfway point of a move) if I double the current pointage from the turning point above I get to 9,800.

 

So there you have it, technical analysis points to a continued bear move to a conclusion of a large scale wave 4 at about 9800 before a rally into a final wave 5.  I don't think we will have too long to wait for this and for me I intend to exit my shorts ahead of the termination point and prepare for a Long campaign.  I guess the next FOMC might have some bearing?

 



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So the Flag was a bit bigger, it isn't confirmed until it is broken of course, and now it looks to be heading towards a breakout.  If this is confirmed then the previous post prognosis for this pair is still valid.  For me this is now about managing profit taking on existing Shorts and stalking reversal trades into Longs for a strong run back up in due course.

 



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USDJPY appears to have resumed its course back down after a large Flag retrace and should now see 9850 at a minimum before a long term rally.

 



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What a difference a day makes!  I had a nagging doubt about the count for the possible retrace to 9 Sept as it was not a clear A-B-C and sure enough a 1-5 fitted better, which makes it a larger Wave A.  We have now had a wave B and are in the process of concluding, I believe, a Wave C with another touch on the descending Daily/Weekly tramline.  A turn here at a strong resistance point, with a previous break and now retest, would bring up a wave 2 retrace completion and then a turn down into a strong wave 3.

 



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This is the only market that appears to be working well for me, maybe that is because it is in a wave 5 down rather than a retrace, at least in hourly chart terms, obviously my position is that it is in a big picture retrace.

 

The market came up for another touch on the daily/weekly resistance tramline and to me it looks like it is now on its way down once again.

 



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Hi Mercury

Not to shore we are heading down just yet, I am aware that we are still in the BUZZ chaotic faze right now as I type this. But cant help feel that we are presently in a triangle, of which we need to await a break. This is in-fact may not break until next week at present.

I am still analysing my daily to see if this fits the scenario, so I will get back to this thread in due course.

UPDATE:

Below are updated charts of possible alternative only W counts with original. The good news, is that both analysis point this heading down. Therefore the alternate ends of the triangle should be the play, of course shorts is the main trade for now, I believe?



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I think for major securities, we are going to awaiting breakouts from "consolidations".$ YEN is still staying within this triangle, but appears to be moving in the right direction, which is slithering its way up to the upside of the triangle, before without doubt heading lower on Wednesday.



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Sorry Kuroda, but you where better of admitting that QE was a waste of time, i hope your deputy has already resigned, as he said he would 3-4 years ago, lol. So for the technicals, as stated in the previous thread, we where in the process of completing a triangle and now that W-e has completed we can hopefully look forward to continue our trend to the downside sub 100 yen most likely 95-94 level. Seems as if they no longer care about credibility. The right thing would be to increase fed rates, but i think even Yellen now knows it is pretty hopeless now.



 

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A BoJ bounce only managed to weaken the Yen back to the prevailing down trend line then rebounded back down rather sharply into what I believe is a wave 3 of the final wave 5 to complete the whole move, probably around the 9800 level with 9400 also a possibility.  Wave 3s are characterised by being long and strong and this certainly qualifies so far.  A Fed "meh" announcement would push this move further and offer the sought for retraces on other pairs.

 

There is more to go on this pair but might be hard to find a "safe" entry, however selling any retraces could work.  The longer term trade is to seek that eventual major turn back up.

 



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I had a sneaking suspicion that USDJPY might catch a bid but the overnight rally was surprisingly strong.  Now another chance to get in Short at the Daily down-sloping tramline (marked here with a horizontal red line on the 4 hourly blue tram).  Not sure if the turn has happened just short or there will be another attempt to break the resistance of the tramline...

 



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