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EURUSD 1 Hour

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That is an interesting power bar (10am) through resistance (11160). Clearly a concerted effort but lacking follow through so far. Will it stick or prove false? Keep an eye on the DX chart as it approaches long term support at 9500/30 and the US JOLTS jobs data at 3pm. Though it is delayed it covers non-farm job openings and considered by some as something of a leading indicator.

 

 



 

 

 

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I see this as the long awaited (for me at least) retrace to the daily tramline for a retest at about 11,300.  This would complete the A-B-C form retrace and there is a zone of strong resistance made up of a junction of the daily tramline (green) and weekly down-sloping tramline (purple).  If I see a 1-5 form for the current rally into this resistance zone I will be seeking a reversal and Short to begin a long decline.

 

There is something similar on GBPUSD, albeit very slow in getting going, and a corresponding potential turning point on EURGBP.  DX is the reverse.

 



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Big 8am session opening bear bar off a double top at 11190 pulling price back through the 11160 level mentioned yesterday. RSI back below 50. On a smaller time frame I would like to see a retest and rejection of 11160 then look to enter short for a possible retest of 11100. 

 



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Nice clean run for EURUSD this morning now stalling at 11300, US CPI data release at 1:30 pm then US Indy Production figures at 2:15 pm. FOMC meeting minutes released tomorrow.

 

When will BoJ step in to choke Yen rise? May wait for data releases and watch the reaction.

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