Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

AUDUSD 1 Hour

Recommended Posts

Aussiedollar may continue down from here. Iron ore price gains responsible for previous weeks rise leveling out now. Rejection of 7700, pullback after 12 and 1am bars surge down looking tired.

 



 

 

Share this post


Link to post

I have similar set up .  I saw a possible exhaustion rally out of an ending Diagonal set up that hit the Fib 88.6% off the 21 April high.  If this holds then a EWT1-2 will have been confirmed.  There are/were 2 Short opportunities.  The first turned out to be vulnerable to that weird spike overnight from NZ central bank data (no comment!).  The second is if price breaks through short term support under the diagonal formation line.  There is Neg Mom Div to support this set up BUT cannot rule out a rally to higher highs at the long term Fib 50% (circa 7930).

 

You are right about Iron Ore (coal too) but Oil seems to be on a bit of a charge and HG Copper is making up its mind but may join the commodities rally so not sure whether this commodity strength is yet done.

 



Share this post


Link to post

  Don't worry, I would never rule anything out ha. Set ups occur all the time but if they don't trigger you can only shrug your shoulders and keep looking, even when they do trigger near half still fail. But seeing something develope means you are already planning and preparing and prevents spontaneous entries which do worse.

 

Share this post


Link to post

Tru Dat .  The reason why I do so much analysis is to hone in on those planned trigger points (If they break my way - if not, as you say shrug it off and go again).  The idea is to either make only a very small loss if it initially breaks my way and then fails (as you also point out this happens a lot) OR never get in because something else happens.  Smalls losses are unavoidable and try to avoid them results in either making larger losses (sounds perverse but is true) or missing out of good set ups.  Trading death is that spontaneous entry that you mentioned.  Watching the screens all day and then getting excited by a sudden move only to see it reverse sharply and kill you.

Share this post


Link to post

Yes, the trigger is important as is keeping losses small, if the trade doesn't take off as expected I may well be wrong and should therefore consider just getting out for a small loss, it may be just bad timing and I would rather a couple of attempts at entry than sit and watch the loss grow before realising I was definitely wrong. 

That be part of the planning process, knowing what you expect to see, where and when you expect it. As soon as the trade starts deviating from the plan get ready to pull the kill trigger, just as readily as you pull the entry trigger.

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×