Jump to content

USDCAD at a moment of truth?


Recommended Posts

Looks like this pair must now decide whether it will run up for another touch on the top of the retrace Triangle or break out in a Bearish move lower.  So far the retrace move has put 4 touches (5 is the classic but often 4 and a failed run up to a fifth can happen).  Big picture I remain with the EWT 3-4 retrace set up indicating a further leg lower to the Weekly trend wave 4 (purple).  The only question for me is whether the market is already in this leg lower or will make a higher top to Pink wave 4.


A look at Oil might help, is there a chance of a retrace soon?  Such a move down on Oil would likely boost USDCAD into a rally that would fit the scenario of staying within the Triangle for now and is that a double bottom I see on both 4 Hour and Hourly charts?


Link to comment

Does appear that you may be on too something, however not too shore that this would be an impulse, rather a simple retrace to complete W4. I also have notice the possibility of B crude retrace, difficult however to decide on the 4hourly if we are having extensions on this W3, it does not look like an ending diagonal, all I have at present is an RSI and W3, but it terms of possible termination is yet to be confirmed.

usd cad DAILY.png


Link to comment

Almost certainly a rally would be the completion of a Wave 4 (Pink label on my chart) but should run as a Wave C (i.e. 1-5 subwaves) to a resistance zone and then turn for a final leg down to the larger timeframe Wave 4 (Purple).  At this point I would be expecting a large rally to a final market top (Purple 5).  If such a move were to coincide with a USD rally and then an Oil bear move then this would all stack.


There is a possibility that he Wave 4 Purple is already in and that this is a slow start to the final leg up, which would be propelled by a near term USD rally and Oil Bear drop.  Can't rule that out but in the short term I prefer the former set up. 

Link to comment

In times of potential volatility and since I'm not in the trade, best allow for some price action to confirm this analysis, not disputing either, but I will probably reassess this to see a any similarities. Always best to reassess your chosen securities, never no what you missed lol.

Link to comment

Similarly to other FX pairs there is an overnight price gap on this pair and currently the pair is retracing back towards closing of this gap.  Depending on Oil moves this could close and then rally away to complete the larger scale Triangle retrace before falling again.


Link to comment

It is a challenging set up at present  and I wouldn't be very confident on it but for me the backdrop of USD weakness and Oil weakness are conflicting factors for this pair, resulting in the sideways actions.  I guess at some point one of those factors will be come dominant (possible temporarily) and result in a breakout.


I am wary of drawing Triangles that are too small and especially complex ones like you have on your chart.  On an hourly chart I am only interested to see ending formations and halfway signals(Flags/Pennants).


Here I think the larger time frame formations are holding sway (Daily retrace Triangle and the larger 4 Hourly is also a possible - see my chart below).  A retest of the Pink Triangle and upper blue line of the Daily chart Triangle looks probably.  A rebound brings up the scenario of a retrace back up to the upper Daily Triangle line, which would complete a complex pattern.  A break through the lower line and associate support zone brings up the move down to Wave 4 termination (as outlined previously).  The Former does not preclude the latter BTW, we could (and for my money probably will) get both.


Having said all that it could be that the W2 is done with the retest of the upper blue Triangle line (I have two possible positions for this Triangle) and so a break above the near term resistance zone would indicate a rally up to the 13300 area.  Whether you take anything here is purely a risk reward equation if you believe the upside is limited to 13300.


I think the bigger trade is to the Short side (in due course) so any Longs would be short term tactical and therefore more risky. 


Link to comment

Been looking at this pair, now and I could not help disagree with my original analysis, hence why counting the waves often helps discover the type of wave pattern that is in front of us. Because I still think their are doubts as to a hike in interest rates, not to mention that DX rally seems to be slowing again, I am questioning if $-cad is a complex triple zigzag and that we may be completing soon an abc within the x wave pattern. Please feel free if you have a different alternative view. Also noticed it is approaching the edge of the triangle which is also the 61% level.

aud usd 2h.png

Link to comment

I see the 4 hour Triangle and have it also  and it could be a simple A-B-C with a subsequent break through that Triangle and a possible retest at Fib 62% as you suggest.  I do not recognise the inverted Triangle you have drawn in blue though.


There is also a smaller Triangle break on the downward move from that larger Triangle break complete with retest and bounce away into the current rally.


However if you look at the Daily chart the larger timeframe Triangle still holds and until the market breaks out of this formation we will not be clear on direction.  Regarding EWT a simple A-B-C retrace would have completed on 26/27 July (Red labels on my daily chart) but I would have preferred to see a clear 1-5 pattern on the wave C.  A more complex retrace is also evident in a series of A-B-Cs (brown labels on my daily chart).


Because the Daily Triangle is still in play and dominant and the wave C of the simple A-B-C is not in a 1-5 form and the move down from the simple C turning point is in an A-B-C also I prefer the complex retrace scenario that should conclude with a slightly higher high in the Daily Triangle.


Having said all that the best trading options here are on a break of the Daily chart Triangle Or a confirmed bounce back down off that Triangle top line and the Fib 38%.



Link to comment

With Oil potentially at a tuning point into a rally (not yet confirmed) USDCAD could similarly be at a turning point back down.  This would be coupled with USD weakness of later, which if fueled by NFP later today would drive this pair down hard.  Currently there is a mirror small double top to the double bottom on Oil and strong Neg Mom Div supporting on the hourly chart.  This all at the Fib 76% off the July previous high.  A turn here means all my Daily chat EWTs shift to the left and the red set of labels come into play. with a Wave 4 completion at the July high.  This does not change my big picture road map heading down into a final leg to a large retracement turn.


NFP as always will be interesting.  A weak number would result in at least short term doubt over a USD rate rise likely resulting int he kind of short term USD weakness needed for the above scenario.


Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

We are coming up on my long held Wave 4 turning point at the top of the Triangle and Fib 38%.  With Oil continuing to retrace in what I believe is an A-B-C and likely to touch and bounce off support around 4400 I anticipate the Fib 38% will be a decent Short bet entry point.  Will be interesting to watch both of these markets over the coming days...

Link to comment

Not to shore that we have completed W-E as of yet, as I am still concerned with the way oil is behaving at present. Although today was mostly more like short-covering, oil unfortunately appears that it still needs to retrace more for the present or at least appears that way. As with USD CAD, not 100% shore if we have seen the termination of W-C of W-E. Therefore I would not want to advocate short selling, but it certainly seems that may be on the cards if we reject the previous high or the triangle which would equate to bouncing of W1 bear trend of 38%.


Link to comment

I agree that this pair has not yet reached a credible Shorting point .  For some time now I have been tracking this one up to a Wave B (pink label) retrace conclusion, which coincides with a Fib 38% retrace line and ascending Triangle line plus over bought RSI/Stochastic and Neg Mom Div signals on Daily and Hourly charts.  You can see from both the Daily and Hourly charts that the EWT labeling supports both a complex retrace and A-E Triangle (as you have it).  In addition the final wave C we appear to be in is following a steady 1-5 count, now in the final wave 5.  If we get a clear mini 1-5 count on this final wave up and a turn in the resistance zone then a Short is a decent bet.


Additionally a correlating reverse pattern on Oil would support this set up although we also have to consider USD.  Having said that this pair can go in opposition to other USD pairs due to the Oil factor.  This is similar in effect to USDJPY often being at odds with other USD pairs of late.


Initially I thought this was a 1-5 down and the current move was a 3-4 retrace but now I believe it is a Wave 4 down in A-B-C, which is likely to conclude at the noted support zone (see weekly chart) and be followed by a strong rally as USD rallies and Oil drops into its final wave down.


Link to comment

Is USDCAD about to join USDJPY in the USD pullback?


A Head & Shoulders formation on the hourly chart is not usually a strong signal for me and a reversal could still occur with a final top up at the Triangle but often these retraces fall short and a break of the neckline offers a decent Short with stops just above the neckline.


Link to comment

The USDCAD H&S formation is looking strong with an anticipatory Tramline break and retest signal also now backed up by a neckline break.  It seems to have all the hallmarks of a wave 3 down and with Oil rallying (pullback possible) and USD falling this pair looks set to follow USDJPY to a concluding large scale Wave 4 bottom some way down from current price.  Shorts are the order of the day here for a while to come.  In addition GBPUSD and EURUSD are looking like staging that rally I have been looking for, post the Yellen attack.  Will need to see this backed up tomorrow bu with stock indices rallying things are set fair for a while until the next crisis...



Link to comment

One thing to watch out for on this pair and Oil  is that the current rally could be an EWT1-2 retrace after a Wave B conclusion.  An A-B-C form is currently possible (so is a 1-3 of 5 of course).  Similarly the sharp move down on Oil on Friday could be an A-B-C to complete a series of EWT1-2s (which is right is a very Bullish set up).  If we get a rally in Oil today this scenario could play out and if we see a turn between the Fib 76% and 88% on USDCAD hourly then that could be a decent Short opportunity (with close stops to guard against the alternative 1-5 wave C up to the top of the Triangle of course...



Link to comment

Agreed  no definitive conclusion nor clear trend emergent just yet, only possible opportunities for low risk high reward ratio entries.  I went Long Oil this morning with a very close stop, only risking 25 points and now at B/E on the rally.  If it doesn't hold no loss, if it does...  Similarly with USDCAD a turn on the Fib 88% with a tight stop, depending on what Oil and DX is doing, could be a decent bet.  Ideally I'd like to see a rally to the Daily Fib 38% and the Triangle top line but how often does the market serve up the perfect set up?  Therefore I tend to trade several possible turning point until I get the right one, which costs a little in false entries but if I catch a major move gains me much more than it costs.

Link to comment

I have been tracking this pair for some time now and I feel it is close to a resolution of the long and complex retrace.  The question is whether the market has put in a top out or still has a bit to go.  Purist chartists would ideally like to see price touch the upper Triangle and also the Fib 38% (daily) but if I ask myself how often the ideal set up occurs in the markets I find that it more often over or under shoots the ideal.


Looking at the hourly chart I can see a potential top out of the retrace at Wave B (pink) after a 1-5 rally.  Wave B ends are very hard to pick and the likelihood of over/under shoot is higher in my experience.  The EWT count works, there is Neg Mom Div (and RSI/Stochastic for good measure), and I have a small tramline pair that has been broken and retested.  On the 4 Hourly and Daily you will see supporting set ups for this and on the Daily price has hit and turned back from the leading edge of a resistance zone.


I cannot rule out either another touch on the lower pink tramline or indeed a run up to the upper Triangle line area but a break below the short term support zone (marked on the hourly chart) would be a decent Short bet for me.


Link to comment

Sometime it just work and this pair has just taken over from USDJPY as my favourite market to focus on for the next few weeks.  A perfect tramline break and double retest with a sharp bounce away as Opec "decide" to address supply.  Will that last?  I don't care.  For now the pair has shown it hand and I am nicely short all the way down.  Next stop will be the lower Triangle line and a break there ought to see 12000 as the final destination area before a strong rally as Oil turns and drops in it's final Bear move.


Link to comment

Nice touch and rejection on the Fib 62% retrace with an A-B-C form, could be the conclusion of this retrace rally with a big move down to come.  Would like to see Oil also turn up so Fib 76% cannot yet be ruled out.  Still the risk/reward ratio is good with close stops just above Fib 62% and recent high point.


Link to comment

Oil has just taken a little drop down and I have been anticipating this.  Could see it drop back to 5000 yet and that would give USDCAD the final push up to the Fib 38% and upper Triangle line after which?  Well let's see what happens later today with NFP...


Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 05/02/23 08:51
  • Posts

    • Q: How can I experience the Fairy Cat metaverse? A: Debuting in January 2023, Fairy Cat is one of the most popular crypto metaverse games. While earlier games (World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Destiny 2) either precede blockchain technology or have not integrated it into their games at all, more recent metaverse iterations - such as FairyCat - integrate metaverse games and blockchain platforms. These so-called "crypto metaverse" games use blockchain technology to achieve encrypted in-game cash, play-to-earn (P2E) and non-fungible tokens (NFT), decentralization and other functionality to bring extraordinary benefits to metaverse games. relevant impact. You don't need to be a crypto expert to play this innovative game, although a little crypto knowledge is helpful to take advantage of all the functionality of FairyCat. Start exploring Fairy Cat: 1. Go to the Fairy Cat website to learn more about the game's currency models, then download the Metamask wallet. 2. Start earning money by opening the game in the Metamask wallet browser. At this point, the game will connect to your wallet account. Don't worry that this game will steal your wallet balance, because it doesn't need your account authorization data, it just needs your wallet data. 3. Once you are in Fairy Cat, you can go through a money transfer tutorial to learn the basic controls. Then you can earn money in the following three methods: Method 1: Adopt a cat to help you find treasures, and you can make profit after selling the treasures. Method 2: Synthesize an LV1 elf cat through 5 elves, and then sell the LV1 elf cat to earn money. This can be understood simply as using 5U to earn 10U (50% probability), and you can buy items to increase the synthesis rate. Method 3: Invite your friends to play the game. After your friends earn money, you can also get commission income. The income is very high.
    • HI,  Please if any IG supporting staff can answer the questions below? 1. in the upcoming AMC/APE vote on 14 March 2023, can shareholder that hold AMC and APE at IG able to make a vote? I also have AMC and APE at IBKR and they did send out a notification to inform me that I can do proxy vote. Will IG do the same? 2. the upcoming vote is to determine APE covert back to AMC then do reverse spilt. Last year after APE issued, IG staff told me that they have to move APE to share dealing account from my ISA account as ISA is not eligible to hold APE (which is completely unbelivable, my APE at AJ Bell and HL are still sitting in ISA account). Anyway, if the conversion and reverse spilt is going to happen, will IG move my APE back to ISA account for the corporate action? Many Thanks
    • The epidemic in recent years has produced profound changes in people's lifestyles, and many of their activities have started to be developed in the virtual world, which plays an important role in promoting the development of the universe of meta. Games, as an important part of the universe of meta, will be the first industry to gain the benefits , but the following conditions are still indispensable for blockchain games to achieve better development.   - Wallets and Exchanges. Through the use of wallets, game users can truly take control of the assets in the game, and exchanges provide a trading platform and liquidity for these game assets NFT, helping users trade and revitalize their game assets. Wallets are a key application for depositing blockchain assets. Currently, wallets such as Metamask are not enough to support the extensive adoption of block games, and wallets will further advance community drive the popularity of blockchain games.  - Game playability. The biggest difference between blockchain games and traditional games is that gamers are also investors. Many blockchain games have gone out of course, treating all users as investors only and forgetting that the essence of making games is to develop high-quality games that users are interested in paying for. If most people play a game just to make money, and no one is ready to pay for it, it becomes a side-scam. The revenue of the participants of the side scam comes from the money of the people who come later, and if there are not enough people who come later, they will not be able to cash in the revenue, leading to the breakdown.  - Speed and performance. A high level of concurrency is the characteristic of game applications, so Wax, Coinan Chain and Polygon, which are public chains with a high level of concurrency and low fees, have attracted a large number of game developers. In the future, with the maturity of technologies such as Ethernet Layer 2 and slice scaling, as well as the maturity of other gaming public chain technologies compatible with EVM, blockchain games will have a better development and operation environment.  - Cross-chain and interaction. Cross-chain and interaction of game assets will be a direction of future development of metaverse games, and blockchain should be connected and accessible like the Internet. The maturity of cross-chain technology in the future will promote the cross-chain transfer of game assets and NFT, and improve the interaction experience of the system                                                                                     The game should maintain the operation of the project by relying on the payment of some users or selling profitable products, just like the new blockchain game Fairy Cat in 2023, which developed diverse gameplay for players and increased the playability of the game, thus got the recognition of many players. Blockchain games need to work hard on game experience and playability. Token economics is essentially just a kind of interest structure , and even good token economics cannot replace the development, operation and profitability of the project itself. It is believed that with the maturity of the above conditions, more and more game developers and investors will enter this industry and together promote the production of some blockchain games with beautiful graphics, first-class experience and high playability.
  • Create New...