Jump to content

Flat curve...it's all alright then...


Recommended Posts

Many equities and indices ( eg. the S&P500) are around the same level as the Dec 2018 dip, which is surprising. Then there was no world health emergency, no 26 million Americans on welfare, no global lock down. The markets seem to think it an irrelevance, such trifles are merely temporary rocks in the road, it would appear.  They suggest hits to earnings are already priced in and dividends and bonus bonanzas are just around the corner in Q3, early 2021 latest.  It would appear these analysts don't get out much. That's lock down for you. "The rebound will be a V"......I may suggest the beta blockers are working, as social distancing will be around into 2021 and a "U" shaped recovery or even a double dip as equally, if not more likely. Naturally, no one mentions the invisible elephant in the room....the second wave.  Most of us would have researched the "Spanish" flu epidemic of 1919, or at least conversed with some that have. The virus then came in 3 waves between 1919 and 1920/21. The second wave being the worst. It would appear the markets think there will be no second wave because the curve has been flattened. That is a mighty assumption indeed.  So it's all alright and the only way is up......the curve has been flattened let's get back to normal as quickly as possible......yes, in our dreams.

If I may suggest, the reality of Covid may be different to market hopes and expectations. There still is no cure, there is no herd immunity (as happened in 1919-1920), social distancing and cleanliness are the only weapons. And ventilators. So far. That is the reality on the ground, where normal people live. It is irrational exuberance and optimism to think that because the curve has flattened, the crisis is over. It is not. I share the markets view that this crisis will pass, but disagree with the timeline.

As an aside, I would strongly suggest to all concerned they refrain in total from taking any of president Trump's advice regarding health, safety and Covid... do not inject or ingest bleach, do not lay on the sunbed for hours at a time, don't waste your money on chloroquine (unless you have malaria). He is a showman, not a doctor and he really wants to be reelected whatever the cost. Social distance, keep your hands clean and stay safe. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,280
    • Total Posts
      90,909
    • Total Members
      41,398
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 11:53

    Newest Member
    Mapiknot
    Joined 06/02/23 21:35
  • Posts

    • Look Ahead to 07/02/23: RBA; GB Retail Sales; BP, BNPP earnings Australia’s central bank is likely to deliver a fourth consecutive quarter-point interest rate hike, after further tightening by the Fed, the ECB and the BoE. Brace for UK retail, earnings from BP (BP) and BNP Paribas (BNPP). Also, look out for US trade balance figures and Halifax house price data ahead of key UK growth data out later in the week.    Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 06 February 2023        
    • Hi, I am practicing certain strategies in demo account. I have created few screeners but when i tried to buy or short sell different stocks shortlisted based on screener conditions, i am getting different kinds of errors. Some stocks you can buy but can't short-sell and so on. I searched in the forums and i understand different restrictions such as market cap should be so and so. Are these rules defined somewhere?  for e.g. one forum reply says market cap should be above 10 billion otherwise you will get second message in below list. However even i try to short sell a stock that has £30 billion market cap, i get the same error.  1. IG is not accepting opening trades on this market, you may only place an order to close. 2. Market you have requested is not longer available online Any suggestions on the above will be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
    • Charting the Markets - February 6, 2023 FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 tiptoe lower following strong US jobs report. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are topping out while EUR/GBP rallies. And gold, Brent crude, and natural gas head lower, as payrolls strengthen the dollar.                         This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
×
×
  • Create New...