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  1. Yesterday
  2. KirbyIG

    APAC brief - 17 Jul

    A night of mixed trade: Overnight trade might be considered an elegant microcosm for the affairs of financial markets right now. The news flow shifted from mixed, to bearish, to bullish, then back to mixed again. The story began with a US Retail Sales data-beat, that cast doubts on the Fed’s need to cut interest rates. That doubt was compounded by more soft-ish bank earnings in the US. The mood then turned decidedly nervous on headlines US President Trump stated his willingness to increasing tariffs on China if he wanted. Before sentiment was salvaged by a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during which he re-affirmed his openness to lowering rates. Risk-taking dulled in the market: The ultimate result on Wall Street being a slight play out of riskier assets and into safe-haven assets. The S&P500 receded from its all-time highs to fade back towards the key-psychological level of 3000. Long-term US rates climbed as markets priced-in a marginally better outlook for US consumption. That gave a boost to the US Dollar, which drove the AUD towards the 0.7000 level once again, and pushed gold prices back to the $US1400 mark. The lead sets up the Asian session for a soft-start, with SPI Futures suggesting the ASX200 ought to extend its three-days of declines and dip around 4-points at the open. ASX200 drifting lower: The ASX suffered from the same listlessness yesterday that had characterized the night prior’s trade on Wall Street. Somewhat like what was experienced last week: market participants remain effectively still and vigilant ahead of greater event risk at the back end of the week. A play into the safety of government bonds pushed long term interest rates down, with price action in stocks reflecting the difference in income-yield dynamics. The utilities sector climbed, while the Real Estate sector lead the sectoral map. Despite the fall in interest rates, the Australian Dollar remained well supported during the local session, primarily due to a climb in industrial commodities. RBA confirms it’s on standby: The minutes from the RBA’s most recent meeting were released during yesterday’s local session, and while they offered little disruption to market activity, they did provide insight into the current state-of-mind of the central bank. Global growth risks, and global central bankers’ policy re-actions to them, were greatly examined; as were the current drags on households and domestic consumption. But the key takeaway was this: the RBA will continue to cut interest rates “if needed” to stimulate the Australian economy, and support the ongoing process of absorbing the stubborn “spare capacity” in the labour market that’s currently undermining the outlook for domestic growth and inflation. The RBA’s clear canvas: The RBA seems to expect that this will be a relatively long and slow process. Such an attitude isn’t a surprise, by any means. Monetary policy is a slow burning fuel when it comes to stimulating the economy. Even still, the moderation, cautiousness and broadness in the RBA’s language betrayed an uncertainty not just in the economic outlook, but also the potential direction for monetary policy. It reaffirms an interesting dynamic whereby the RBA is standing guard for a potential deterioration in local and global economic fundamentals, amid a lingering sense of doubt about whether policymakers across the globe can extend this business-cycle. RBA ambiguity brings market opportunity: Market action around yesterday’s RBA Minutes reflected the ambiguity betrayed within the document. Market participants weren’t preparing for anything more; the RBA was only ever going to expound on what had already been communicated in its meeting press-release a fortnight ago. Further to that, all the benefits and impact to financial markets from the information received had all but been priced-in by this month’s actual cut. Moving forward, however, the open-endedness of the RBA’s present policy outlook raises the stakes for markets. The next cut, implied for December, could just as easily be brought-forward or deferred, setting up ample ground for volatility. Global inflation under the microscope: The global macro-theme to keep an eye on in the day ahead is inflation data. A skerrick of it was released yesterday, after New Zealand inflation CPI met expectations, but re-affirmed the need for rate cuts from the RBNZ. It’ll be Canada and the UK’s turn this evening, with each of those economy’s rate outlook in focus. Inflation for both countries is expected to be sluggish – following the disinflation trend brought about by a slowing global economy. If the data inflation misses today, it adds the Bank of England and Bank of Canada to the list of central banks that may need to ease rates soon. Written by Kyle Rodda-IG Australia
  3. two equal channels. Big down move today, I'm not short ( I don't short oil ) but would like to see price fall to $55.00
  4. I'm interested in trading Oil/Natural gas and would like a use of inverse ETFs such as UGAZ,DGAZ, UWT, DWT. While trying to open position on a demo account I get this message - This market is only for closing deals. Can someone shed some light, thanks.
  5. Thanks so much for the explanation, I better start flicking between settings. 🍻
  6. Hi, to open a long trade you buy the ask price and to close that long trade you sell at the bid price, the mid is just a reference between the two, the difference between the two is the brokers markup. You are best to have the chart set to mid but be aware it won't show exactly where the in/out of the trade was activated. Tick volume shows the number of orders processed but not the size of each, the online platform shows actual volume as taken from the exchange if there is one, FX must use tick volume as there is no central exchange. A tick chart just shows orders as they are matched and the resulting price change.
  7. Only that it's linked to leverage accounts only same as the DMA platform, whether it uses DMA I'm not sure, you can trade shares on API but only on a SB or CFD account.
  8. An exit strategy adds information for deciding on the entry, where is price looking to get to, how long am I willing to sign on for. It encourages you to look ahead realistically rather than just hoping for a parabolic move after entry. Consider trailing stops; based on MAs, ATR, set number of points away, manual trail following up to the next higher low. Or set targets such as; S/R levels, pivot S/R, set number of points away, risk reward ratio eg 1:2. Or, as you suggest floating targets such as the next reversal chart pattern, indicator cross overs (MA, MACD etc). If you have already decided on how to get out you are not going to be so worried about what price does in the meantime.
  9. Well Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend move. It was trading below its 20 DMA but it is now below its 50 DMA which confirms a downward trend right now. The chart below highlights this through a simplistic visual without lots of arrows, lines and complexity for those who are new to trading or are struggling to use technical indicators on a more simplistic level. Based on current price action and momentum it seems $8k is where Bitcoin seems to be heading unless there is some very positive news on Bitcoin or something significant happens or is released through online media news that changes Bitcoin's path pretty much immediately. Anything above $6k still keeps Bitcoin above its 200 DMA and the longer term trend in tact just about by the skin of its teeth. This is all based on the 'daily' chart / timeframe.
  10. Howdy folks! Maybe I'm opening a can of worms -- in my head. 🙃 As I was looking for a volume tick chart on the IG online platform (is there one?), I've just noticed the Ask, Bid & Mid price settings. It is set to Mid. Is this best? From my research opening and closing prices are Mid price anyway, whereas highs are usually Ask, and lows, Bid. Any advice would be appreciated. 🍻
  11. Bitcoin has gone down below $10k which for me was the critical price point. This price behaviour in itself will encourage more short positions to open and agressive short traders to add to their shorts thus amplifying the move downwards creating obscene levels of volatility. This is because at some point there will be a short covering rally of gigantic proportions.
  12. Typical. J&J is going nowhere but everything else is selling off right now. Except Boeing, which is under investigation and facing multiple lawsuits. One ought to 'do the opposite'.
  13. That's a really good question. Normally I'd move the stop loss just above break even if it moves far enough away in order to give it more room to breathe, and then occasionally review the trade to look for candlestick patterns etc indicating a reversal or pullback and try to take profits.
  14. This could be your internet. I would personally invest in a VPS server with a stable connection to the internet to do your trading.
  15. Mercury

    Silver Bullet

    Well Gold rallied hard recently while Silver lagged. These markets are related but not identical. Besides it may be more correct to say Silver rallied while Gold lagged in consolidation pending a rally..? The day is not yet over and the week only just begun.
  16. ok, but isn't that lacking a certain something, I mean that could be a place for an initial stop loss but would you really want to see price race away in you favour 100s of points and then return all the way back to stop you out for a loss? just asking
  17. Yes, I can just leave it to do its thing. I will exit if prices goes back above the 'pivot'!
  18. What's the exit strategy btw? If you have one then it can 'handle' itself 🙂
  19. dmedin

    Silver Bullet

    Gold dropped today and silver went up. huh?
  20. Mercury

    Silver Bullet

    Looks like the Silver bullet is back on. I have reversed my positions on a strong breakout to the upside. "As goes Silver, so goes Gold"?
  21. 🙈 This is too much for me to handle!
  22. Please double check your settings in MyIG > Settings > Price and Dealing Alerts. Make sure the 'dealing' section is ticked as appropriate.
  23. Let's have a wee flutter.
  24. Adding to my Silver post, Gold has been more subdued that Silver, which gave me additional encouragement for considering Silver's resistance Trend line might hold. On Gold itself the EWT set up remains bearish plus a small consolidation triangle has just been broken to the downside. This offered an opportunity to go Short with a close stop just above the set up. I would like to see a strong follow on, representative of a wave 3 or C and breaks of support zones in short order. Fundamentals are the same as for Silver (see Silver Bullet thread) so perhaps we can anticipate a few weeks in any bearish move (or more whipsaw price action consolidation maybe). With a close stop and low exposure I am content to wait for price action to play out.
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