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  2. Good point, I've not looked for a while and the shorts are way down from where they were, you would of thought the last 4 weeks would have encouraged them to hold, but then that's why it can be read as a contrarian.
  3. Great notes guys. This a really interesting thread. Of the couple of Dax trades that I have done. I do think it a worthwhile index to trade. The 11400 zone is my first main target where Merc highlighted the gap on the chart. This next 6 months could see outsize moves now we will have more Brexit uncertainty and trade war moves. Under the hood Global capital seems to tighten even though we have Fed easing. There is more debt to sell - interesting to see when the rubber really hits the road. Casey looked at the sentiment a couple of weeks back and suggested too many were short orientated. I agreed then. Does feel now that sands are shifting beneath. But the short side is always there...
  4. End of May sees the end of May. You missed a trick there.
  5. After the check at the pivot dax moved on to tag R1, currently back to join dow mid way between pivot and R1 awaiting the US market open. May be a tame Friday afternoon and into US market close as it's a public holiday in the US on Monday as well as UK.
  6. Today
  7. You may well be right @786Trader there are a lot of fundamentals based theories around so yours is as good as anyone's. My hypothesis is not based on Oil fundamentals but can be summed up in 2 words: Deflationary Depression. Regarding the Dow, this attached is my long term view.
  8. @ mindthegap Did not agree with much of the linked you tube video. Thought he was full of it to be honest. BS with a sprinkling of useful truth. He may have been to Asia but completely failed to understand them. Foxconn make Apple devices in China because there is no way Apple could make them as well, as quick or as cheaply in the US or even Mexico. For example. So either prices go up or Apples margins go right down. Plus everyone is paying more for anything made in china, including simple items like shoes. Not inflationary at all. Ever considered China may do to Apple what Trump has done to Huawei. Trump is a bull in China's shop. And we will all have to pick up the tab.
  9. Interesting postulation. The big bear? Not quite so convinced. For mostly obvious political reasons to do with supply and demand. Brent to $28? Not anytime soon. WTI crude an unlikely maybe, but Brent ? I am wholly unconvinced. The markets are not over supplied. Demand is as strong as ever. Not to mention sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Saudi will not continue to sell oil on the cheap, even if Trump tells them to, though the Russians will with their current batch of chlorinated crude. A $28 Brent implies a Dow @18000 or less or vast reserves newly discovered. A market adjustment where the Dow rocks down to 20K late 2020 is a solid maybe, but oil? Graphics tell a story, but the giant big bear has not convinced me. Personally, I can see oil increasing through political tension and the strong possibility of actual conflict. The strait of Hormuz controls 30% of global supplies. Support at the $68 mark is considerable.
  10. I am also having the problem of "requote" while using an EA on MT4. The market isn't moving especially quickly but about 1 in every 10 orders fails due to requote. I'm not using an EA that requires highly fast and accurate trades therefore I can handle a bit of slippage. How do I set the allowable amount of slippage to avoid "requote"? Thanks
  11. @johnt4917, @nit2wynit, @dmedin, Different traders can have different strategies and still all be successful depending on how one defines success. A lot of traders define success as having more winning trades than losing trades. My strategy incurs at times more losing trades than winning trades. However, the key measurement of how I personally define success is to ensure that the profit from my winning trades is greater than the losses on my losing trades. A consistently profitable trader could be deemed as having a successful trading strategy if this is demonstrated over many years. Some traders who consistently make higher profits than others over many years could be deemed as having a more successful trading strategy. So if for example I trade 10 times and 7 are losing trades and 3 are winning trades then that is a 70% failure rate and 30% success rate. Now some may deem this as an unsuccessful trading strategy. Now what if the profits on my 30% of winning trades were far greater than the losses on the 70% of my losing trades. If this was achieved consistently over many years then it changes the dynamic of how one thinks about a successful trading strategy. Your personality, mind set and psychological approach to trading has a big influence on the type of trading strategy one ends up being more comfortable with and adopting. It is about finding the right trading strategy that suits you (we are all different) and then really fine tuning it to ensure it meets your trading goals and objectives. Once this is understood then one will quickly realise that there is no professional or amateur on IG Community but just traders. Some will be more experienced that others. Some will apply far more complex trading methods and conduct far more technical and challenging analysis. However, this does not mean they are more profitable or are making greater profits than those who are not.
  12. Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 Of course there is still every possibility that Theresa May will come outside to the No10 podium and announce her newest & boldest plan for a Brexit deal. She really is *that* mad.
  13. Good Question, So The top is the NUMBER of Institutions holding short positions. The Bottom is the PERCENTAGE of capital. So ONE trader might hold an extraordinarily large position as an example, That would make it into the list. However multiple institutions might hold small percentage of trades making it into the list also. That's why I do a summary. The summary is an intersection of the lists to make sure that they are shorted by many and the percentage is high also. One trader might not necessarily be right but if multiple traders hold a lot of positions you can bet your dollar that it is for a reason. Overall it has been a very profitable strategy.
  14. Appreciate the erroneous tag @Foxy but as I have now accessed this thread I thought I would add my 2cents worth FWIW. To be clear, I do not trade the Dax but I do monitor it for congruence/divergence vs other indices. I am currently of the mindset that the Dax was the first of my indices to top out, way back in Jan 2018 and looks to have posted a Head & Shoulders formation with an associated iceline zone between 11,700-900. Stochastic and RSI are over bought, typical of a wave 2 end but there are 3 possible scenarios still in play as follows: Wave 2 (purple) not yet completed, will travel up to Fib67/78% and retest the medium term trendline that was broken back in Oct 8 when the US large Caps turned down sharply. Wave 2 Purple is already in (see Daily chart) and a smaller EWT 1-2 is also done and now the market will drop from here. A break through the iceline would confirm this. The Dax will join the US large caps with a fresh ATH, negating the H&S (SP500 & Nasdaq at least, Dow is not there). The price action from the Jan 18 top could be seen more as an A-B-C retrace (red labels), which supports a strong final rally to a fresh ATH, likely at or near the upper very long term resistance trendline. Looking at the Daily chart there is a strong pair of parallel channel lines, however Momentum is still is very strong negative divergence territory, will take something to reverse this and we haven't yet had a drop sufficient to reset. If scenario 2 is correct then I would anticipate a swift drop through the lower channel line that never looks back (or maybe a short term retest) as this would be a wave 3. So for me the lower channel line break is the key trigger (not withstanding the dreaded fakeout!) followed by a break of the iceline support zone.
  15. GBPUSD at a pivotal point for me, knocking on the door of a 1 hour chart ending diagonal formation after a rally off the Fib 88%, last change for a wave B turn. PMD on the wave B turning point and possible small EWT1-2 in, although a more defined 1-2 could still be on the cards. Regardless a confirmed breakout of the triangle line will be indicative, any longs should have stops just below the wave B turn low. This is aligned to EURUSD and DX at present (see other threads.
  16. Don't think you can IG data but you can historical M1 data (I think it's metaquotes) that should be near identical. See this vid;
  17. How can I get hold of M1 data from IG for backtesting on MT4? I need the data for EURAUD, EURGBP and AUDNZD.
  18. Ftse in the same place as dax and dow, stuck between the pivot and R1.
  19. @Bell Either way, The DAX looks good to me a drop below 11800 should open a trap door and deliver some great shorts but if for some reason we get a bounce 12500 looks good on the long side, sounds like a win-win from here.
  20. TA books are all good, not much changes, here's a look at a H&S failure pattern from 1936 from Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends. Edwards and Magee.
  21. Pound spikes up on news PM May to resign on the 7th of June.
  22. Well I do recommend reading 'Technical analysis of the financial markets' by John J. Murphy. It's old (1999) and you can get a second hand copy so it's not as if he will get much money from you.
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