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  1. Past hour
  2. Stopped me out second time hope this time it will bounce up with power and don't look back lol🙄
  3. There are a lot of UBIs on different exchanges may have caused some confusion but IG don't seem to list the company for share dealing, that maybe because it has a low market cap $44 mil. It is on the leveraged platform but listed as 'close only, unborrowable'.
  4. Today
  5. FX volatility continues dropping, currently nearing 5 year lows. see chart FX Volatility Index for the G7 below.
  6. Silver seems to be more in a more bullish mood compared to Gold. Platinum is too. Right now I have no conviction either way on whether Gold will go up or down. The only way one can try and get a feel on future direction is by following the US Dollar and looking out for any 'Risk On / Risk Off' situations such as equities tumbling down, potential war conflicts, economic recessions, political mayhem, etc. When one looks at the chart some could see a weakening trend upwards leading to selling and a downward move. Others could argue that Gold is consolidating before its next move upwards. I would not want to go 'Long' or 'Short' at this juncture and would prefer to merely wait until the price action confirms the directional move as this is the only way you can stack the odds and probability in your favour should you choose to trade Gold by trading in the direction of Gold's price rather than against it.
  7. yeah, and Ger economic sentiment came in a miss at -24.5 while the EU as a whole came in at -20.3 which was actually a slight beat lol.
  8. Dow has resistance at 27400 and looks pretty flat to me, here is my chart. 👿
  9. I want to buy UBI.ASX, Universal Biosensors, but IG says I need to sign a paperwork if I want to buy U.S shares. What dose it mean? UBI is an ASX stock, why can't I invest in it? Anyone has same problem?
  10. GBPUSD is taking it to the edge these days, last time a potential Wave B (green) just off the previous turn (wave 1) and now a retrace all the way to the Fib 88% and the previous 1H/4H channel breakout support zone. This is a critical moment for GBPUSD, will it now rally away from this support or break through to make new Daily chart lows? EUR is lagging and AUD remains strong, although I expect a retrace on the latter at some point.
  11. Gold H4 and the coiling continues to get tighter but the break when it comes usually leads to a strong move, never quite sure which way the break will go but most chart patterns are continuation patterns.
  12. Not just Deutsche Bank and it's derivatives black hole but German factory orders, industrial production and economic sentiment (today expected at -20).
  13. Dow checking the pivot before the London open, Dax looking to support at 12389. Both currently above the pivot so looking for long entries.
  14. Hi, see additional info on this subject in the Gold Weekly thread.
  15. Strong push down through 60 following a test of the recent high yesterday, now at 59.60 having found support at 59.27, RSI has dipped below 50 and the support level doesn't look too strong, may look lower.
  16. @davidbrister Thanks for the reply. I've been running the demo, which has actually made 1.5% in 2 weeks, with 5% drawdown. I have also had multiple sales people try to flog the the product multiple times. I find them aggressive and pushy, which makes me think there is something dodgy going on. I have had the same experience with regard to emailing questions and getting a call to respond. I haven't bought it yet, so think I've give it a wide birth. Thanks all for the feedback and knowledge. Much appreciated.
  17. Interesting comparison in the daily BTC and Gold charts both showing consolidation following a period of uptrend though Gold has a more flag type look to it. BTC back up to tussle over 10800 support turned resistance. Daily and H1 charts;
  18. Dax and Ftse both putting in daily reversal candles yesterday while Dow drifts upward after the strong push through resistance last week. Asian markets struggle with China concerns.
  19. Asian markets down Crypto down, Bonds up, USD flat, Oil and Gold up. Chart Bund. UK average earnings 9:30, Ger econ senti 10:00, US retail sales 1:30pm. Lots of Fed speak throughout the day. Ger sentiment expected at a very depressed -20.9.
  20. Yesterday
  21. Gold for me is still in an upward trend for now when one looks at the 'daily' chart. I include it below for your viewing. It shows that Gold is still trading above its 'daily' 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's. If it breaks below its 20 DMA on the 'daily' then there is the potential for a larger drop down towards its 'daily' 50 DMA. The trend to me looks like it is weakening and there is some range bound activity once the market decides which direction it wants to go in next which for me will be depending on the US Dollar along with 'Political and Economic' risk / news.
  22. Today Bitcoin has traded within the $9.8k to $10.9k rang which is over 1000 points. From a trading perspective especially for day traders and very short term traders this presents a fantastic trading opportunity as if you add leverage and trade in the direction of the short term move in Bitcoin then profits are there to be made. It will be extremely difficult of course as the intraday volatility is extreme to say the least. I am sure some of you may be 'scalping'.
  23. China GDP Refocuses Speculative Attention from Monetary Policy to Growth Last week, it was fairly clear that a particular fundamental theme had stepped up to take command of our attention. Monetary policy has garnered greater traction recently owing largely to speculation that the Federal Reserve will have to reverse its course of normalizing extreme accommodation and subsequently cap the responsibility for global investors to bear the exceptional risks in our financial markets on their own shoulders. This speaks to a familiar equation that we’ve seen take center stage through the unique growth phase of the past decade: where genuine economic potential lags, central banks can compensate by offloading risk to make anemic returns more attractive. The US central bank was the chief threat to that calculation of complacency after 200 basis points of tightening and a slow runoff of its balance sheet. Moving forward, the Fed’s support or opposition to supplemented risk taking will still carry enormous weight, but the perspective is now one of ‘wait and see’ until the next rate decision on July 31st – where the markets are certain of a 25 bp cut and price a 20 percent probability of a 50 bp move. In the meantime attention will likely shift to something with more immediate influence. For scheduled event risk through the week ahead, the top listing is arguably the Chinese 2Q GDP update. As an economic milestone for the world’s second largest individual economy, the gravity here is obvious. However, the implications run deeper than that. This is the official government-based growth reading that will set off the season of GDP readings, with the US figures due on Friday, July 26th. Furthermore, given China’s efforts to transition their economic dependency away from exports and onto domestic means as well as its central position in the ongoing trade wars, we are monitoring an integral player in the web of global health that is facing exceptional instability. There is perhaps some reassurance to be found in this figure given that the government has substantial control over the economy and the reporting of the statistics. It is very unlikely that we register a severe shortfall. That said, the markets compensate for these measured movements with greater deference towards even small changes. What’s more, Asia’s economic health was already cast in shadow at the end of this past week. Singapore – the world’s 34th largest economy – reported a dramatic 3.4 percent quarter-over-quarter slump in the previous quarter. This series does have some history of volatility, but the bare growth of 0.1 percent annual expansion is unmistakably poor with the worst pace since the second quarter of 2009. Pressure Increases Even Further for Trade War ‘Accidents’ and Especially for Contagion The good will between the United States and China in their trade relations following the G-20 sideline meeting seems to have all but evaporated. Without meaningful progress to seed reasonable hope of reversing the large tariffs the countries have placed on each other, we are left to evaluate the growing tension on the periphery of their fraying relationship. This past week, senior officials in the Trump administration reportedly agreed that China had violated its sanctions on Iran by importing a million barrels of its oil, but there was no immediate agreement on how to respond. On the other side of the table, China has said it will sanction those US companies that were involved in the arms sale to Taiwan. While a full reversal on the trade war doesn’t seem to be in the cards through the foreseeable future, there seems little will at present to escalate the situation along its natural course of the US going ‘all in’ on all Chinese imports while China responds with even more unorthodox measures such as restrictions on rare earth materials. Meanwhile, the pressure is ratcheting up outside the now-conventional channels of economic retaliation with the very real risk that all such efforts will be construed as some form of retaliation and escalation. Reports this past week that Trump had tasked aides to look into means to devalue the Dollar is immediately believable and a serious threat of destabilizing an already-troubled situation. The President has repeatedly accused China and the EU of using monetary policy and other means to artificially weaken their respective currencies to afford ill-gotten advantage to their economies. While there are arguments that can be made to both cases, pursuing retribution at this juncture would be a severe threat. A related issue that will no doubt draw the attention of Trump and his advisors was the appointment of IMF Director Christine Lagarde to be the new leader of the ECB when Draghi steps down at the end of October. The IMF recently issued its review of the EU with advice that the region should continue to sport its enormous stimulus given conditions. That can easily be interpreted by a person or people looking for antagonism as a move to further advantage. Another development that should be watched closely is France’s decision to move forward with a 3 percent digital tax on earnings made in France by large tech companies. Many of those companies that will face the levy are American, a fact that will not go unnoticed by the White House. With the UK considering a 2 percent tax of its own and the EU still moving forward with debates on a broad duty, there is a rising risk that the US pushes forward with the tens of billions in tariffs it has warned Europe over and perhaps even the adoption of a blanket tariff on auto imports. If this is the course we follow, take those atmospherical recession warnings more seriously. US Earnings Season Starts with Recession Fears, Trade Fallout and Business Cycle Under Scrutiny The second quarter US earnings season is due to start in earnest in the week ahead. We have already taken in a few noteworthy corporate updates these past weeks. Levi Strauss, who reported this past week, is the target for retaliatory tariffs from Europe while Micron and Fedex who offered updates two weeks ago find performance directly reflective of trade tension. While there are a few companies reporting that have overt exposure to strained Chinese relations, the high profile updates ahead will tap into other matters. Netflix’s report on Wednesday will look to leverage some of the influence that it enjoyed in previous years when tech shares paced US equities which in turn led the global view on risk appetite. However, lately, the FAANG members and collective seem to have lost the ear of the market. On the tech side, IBM’s update on the same day and Microsoft figures on Thursday will offer a more endemic growth picture. Perhaps the most prominent theme to extract from this week of US earnings will be an important ‘cost’ of monetary policy accommodation from the Fed. The central bank is warning the engines for rate cuts, and most investors can only see benefit from the reversal with the moral hazard tide rolling back in. Yet, there are systemic risks associated to the fact that the group is so unnerved about the near future that it is contemplating easing despite still meaningful growth, not to mention the danger that could follow should the markets decide to lose confidence in central banks’ ability to fight off crises owing to their depleted resources. In revenue terms, a drop in benchmark rates is often a burden to banks. While each cut in the overnight rate does not confer proportional burden to financial institutions’ margins while each hike adds to it, that is more often the case over cycles and particularly when we are attempting to lift rates off of long-term deflated levels. We are unlikely to see the fall out in this past three-month period’s returns from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley; but their forward guidance for future profits can certainly offer up reference. Look beyond the single tickers’ response to their own financials and instead monitor the systemic repercussions.
  24. It seems Bitcoin is trying to push through an upward move. This may be a short covering move. There is not enough positive news right now for Bitcoin to push above $12k and stay there so I see the possibility of Bitcoin either participating in a volatile range bound activity or further declines in the short term. My view longer term is that Bitcoin will go for the $20k level once more positive Bitcoin news is released to the market.
  25. "Useful long term but not a trade indicator" This is Bitcoin's long term chart with and without log scale. You may be a short term trader but most investors and long term traders see value in these long term trends.
  26. Hi, you are correct, there is some very important math to consider concerning trading. Have a look at this thread linked below and consider; risk reward ratio, win rate, risk reward against win rate showing profitability, probability of sequential losing trades as it relates to % of account balance staked on each trade (risk management). I wouldn't worry too much about hedging in the early stages unless you were looking to hold a very long term position through thick and thin, the rest of us just run away 🙂
  27. HI everyone, I´m barely new in trading and I´d like to bring as much math as possible into it. What kind of math would you advice at a beginners level? I mean in terms of risk management, statistical forecasting, hedging and so on. Thank you very much!
  28. The L2 data is by the DMA platform (Direct Market Access) and not more powerful or necessarily cheaper but just a more direct route to the liquidity providers, you will need to pay a monthly fee to see the exchange data feed. See https://www.ig.com/uk/l2-trading-platform
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