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  1. 2 points
    CBD oil is apparently very good for joint pain, anxiety. But a single bottle is almost $100 I think. Said to be good for insomnia too. And they have 'vape' like products for cannabis. Lots of potential for a healthy market there ...
  2. 2 points
    The one thing I have realised is that a lot of people are trying to run before they can walk. People are trying to be successful at trading when they have not become successful at investing. For me being a successful and profitable investor by creating long term wealth is the sound foundation that can lead to into trading or other forms of investing. I am going to use this thread to begin discussing my journey as an investor and the good things I did and the bad things or mistakes I made along the way. I have nothing to hide and I want to share real life examples for the IG Community. Of course I hope you can appreciate that I will not disclose monetary amounts or the valuation of my investment portfolio and this is private but will be open and transparent. I will use 'clear and plain' English and where any jargon or complex words or phrases are used then I will try and explain them in a simple manner for the IG Community. @dmedin, I have tagged you into this as you have inspired me to create this thread. Please bear with me and when I have some time I shall commence with Part 1 below. Part 1: Introduction to Creating Long Term Wealth by Investing - Coming Soon
  3. 2 points
    Possible bounce off the channel line. Note also the small gap closure.
  4. 1 point
    Hi everyone, so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle. Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon) First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows. What do you think of this approach?
  5. 1 point
    Pro Real Time keeps crashing. It's the most unstable platform I have used to date. Not impressed.
  6. 1 point
    er, it was attempted humour, sorry for the fail.
  7. 1 point
    you didn't comment? funny little video, I though at first it was the typical play, let me tell you some dirty secrets to show you can trust me then let me sell you something, and it was, but not really. So he's a company and been with IG a long time and is perfectly happy and will remain an IG customer for the foreseeable future, fine but; watch out for the PRT backtester? don't be fooled by all those flashing lights? didn't see the clearly stated client sentiment data as a contrarian indicator note. the signals service doesn't really work if you just follow it blindly, or you could fade the signals, which he stopped doing because? There you go, you have been warned ☹️
  8. 1 point
    Interesting set of charts; Chris Kimble @KimbleCharting 1d Are "High Times" about to return to pot stocks? After large declines, these stocks are each testing support at each (1).
  9. 1 point
    you seem to set a good set of rules, but I have always found forks a little subjective, even personal. Different people see different ones. Here's mine
  10. 1 point
    Jesse Livermore’s Equity curve:
  11. 1 point
    Maybe empty your account and don't make a deposit until its fixed - 😁
  12. 1 point
    Has the Russell 2000 signaled the turn back into rally mode? The US small caps are often a bit leading for the large caps, the Russell went green earlier than the others just now. If any bearish trend push back down is halted short of the low and ideally pushed back into the green there is a good chance the retrace is done and he rally can resume. Obviously need to break the 1510 resistance zone to be sure.
  13. 1 point
    There are many forms of TA @cryptotrader, there is even a professional qualification, the CFA, that covers all or most of them. I use a number of techniques blended into a system of rules and indicators but almost always in the context of a fundamentals/macro backdrop. I use Elliot Wave Theory to get a big picture cyclical view and to confirm shorter term moves. I am a swing trader so my method is chiefly about identifying trend changes early and then once the trend is established and confirm I switch to trend following. Note, support/resistance, which I also use, is a form of TA. Regarding your specific observations: the candle you mention is less of a factor for me, I tend to only deploy candle price action on the daily+ time frame but it is a form of spinning top or doji candle, which can mean a trend reversal in context (i.e. not always). There was a decent IG video training session on candle patterns, probably still in the archive if you are interested. The gap is of interest because charting techniques (also a form of TA) hold that most gaps are filled quickly. The Supply/Demand proponents regard this as unfilled demand so usually the market reverses shorty after a genuine gap fill (i.e. one that is filled quickly). Gaps that take months to fill are not relevant in this context as they are really so-called breakaway gaps that were not filled during the phase in which they occurred. The market simply went into a trend change and the fill was a by product of this. Of more relevance to me was the fact that EWT suggested we ought to get a small counter trend retrace before a larger rally. Charting suggested that the support zone around the channel line - grey one - and/or breakout zone from the alternative channel line - blue one - would be a strong candidate for a counter trend turning point back into the main trend rally. Fibonacci retrace suggested the Fib 62% level, where it cut the channel line was a high likelihood turning point, which is where we got that doji candle on the 1H chart. However now of this is confirmed until we see a higher high, which is where good stop placement and money management comes into any system. So there are a few TA types there including: Elliot Wave Theory Support/Resistance Supply/Demand (which in my book is akin to, or causes support/resistance) Fibonacci retracement and Charting techniques I also use a few oscillators, especially momentum and I especially look for divergence on momentum (where price is higher (or lower) while momentum is the opposite. This occurred at the previous turn (3 Oct) and is dominant in my method unless or until that low (in this case) is broken or an opposite momentum divergence (a negative one) occurs later. That is all quite technical I know but hopefully you get the basic idea. If you google any of the individual elements you will get more info.
  14. 1 point
    While Stocks and precious metal traders wait on tender hooks for a potential turn (or breakdown...) over int he Coffee market things seem more straightforward with a break of a key support zone. Onwards to test the next I reckon and if that breaks then next stop 8000.
  15. 1 point
    Gold staged a break of that short term support zone but has since been stopped at another short term support level. I am looking for a break of this secondary support to open the way for a strong bearish phase. Risk to this might be a bearish phase on stocks as these markets do seem quite correlated in an inverted fashion, however there is no reason why gold and silver can't beak down while stocks also go bearish for a time so I am not getting hung up in stocks in relation to gold.
  16. 1 point
    Free pdf download https://www.pdfdrive.com/reminiscences-of-a-stock-operator-pdf-e7282291.html
  17. 1 point
    @Mercury, You hit the nail on the hard for me in that reports come after any turn has occurred. That is spot on for me. One can see through the price action any significant change before it comes through data released by organisations around the world. This is why for me price action is king. I think one has to remember that the market is looking into the future so there will be times when the price does not match the current supply and demand fundamentals as it is looking at say six months in advance. So if the outlook for Coffee looks more promising in the future, the current price action can reflect this which catches a lot of traders out. They sometimes cannot understand why the price is behaving the way it is based on today's news. In fact forecasts (future predictions) play an important part in Commodities trading. If I come across anything of significance in relation to Coffee then I will be sure to share with you and rest of the IG Community. 👍
  18. 1 point
    Best is to put all login details and passwords for important accounts like trading accounts, bank accounts, etc in a secure location, which your wife and kids can access in case you cease to exist
  19. 1 point
    That's what Malthus said but he also said if it doesn't happen gradually and by choice it happens in a cascade (not good!). Alas our technological abilities may be our biggest issue. Technology has allowed us to feed, house and warm more people than we should be able to, which has led to environmental consequences. The environmental issues are a symptom of over population but no one want to talk about that, they just want to talk about bad government and band industry and bad meat eaters causing green house gasses. I wasn't, you always assume the worst. I was picking on the whole movement to focus on the environmental symptoms rather than the root cause (too many people in a closed system). Bit mean! As long as she only has one no problem...
  20. 1 point
    Could be very exciting today, if the purchasing managers are more gloomy than expectations have the hiring managers been hiring as per expectations? and heading into a weekend the worry warts could start a panic if figures are bad, delicious. Yesterday the indices looked to have found support and are attempting to rally.
  21. 1 point
    @dmedin, 😀 The other two may be of significant importance.
  22. 1 point
    Nope, swing traders swings with the turns; read the indicators not the bias. Long Stocks having cashed Shorts for a pretty profit; Short PMs but stayed in positions against the USD. Let's see...
  23. 1 point
    Actually it was all through most of 2015 as well but the point remains the same as today. By far the highest probability is for price to leave a chart pattern or period of consolidation going in the same direction as it went in. Counter trend trades are always short duration trades. In an uptrend the stronger play is to look for bottoms not tops. The doomsters who are waiting for the end of the world usually wait lifetimes.
  24. 1 point
    Looked at the S&P monthly this morning but worth checking Dow, Dax, Ftse and ASX monthlies as they are all staring at their All Time Highs. Dow is the closest and it would not take too much to push on through and as the US is the world econ driver the rest are likely to follow, some headway in the China/US trade dispute would do it. Monthly charts;
  25. 1 point
    Ok everyone, pulled some data. Will split up in several posts. First of all, here is the selection of tickers I examined in more detail. I scaled down the hypothetical account size to £300, as this reflects a more real life scenario than the £10k for me right now. Also for beginners £250 is the minimum you need to top up your SB account, so £300 is kinda where you have to start. Few of the top tickers fall out of the list now, because you need more than £300 to trade them. So, I will be focusing in the following analysis on: NASDAQ, Natural Gas, US Crude, Spot Gold, DAX, FTSE, GBP/US
  26. 1 point
    It depends. The future value of £1,000,000 invested at 10% per annum for 30 years is less than £17.5m. The future value of £100,000 at 20% per annum for 30 years is more than £23.7m. I can also have lots of fun with the spare £900,000 every year!
  27. 1 point
    @dmedin, Of course it is only my personal opinion but I do think that if one has never invested or is not both successful and profitable at investing then it does make it potentially harder for them when it comes to trading. I accept investing and trading are both different. When I refer to investing in this thread it is more geared to the investment funds such as investment trusts, unit trusts, OEICS and ETF's rather than individual shares. Investing in individual shares is very different to investing in investment funds. I shall be focussing on investing in investment funds in this thread.
  28. 1 point
    I'm an expert in losing money. If you want to know how to be penniless and miserable, follow my strategy. 🤡
  29. 1 point
    hahha, I often post on here after Red Wine Enlightenment too. It's cool. I like your style. In and out. Take profit. Seems the way forward. Good Luck when you go Live. Learning the emotional side of Trading has been the greatest lesson for me so far. The Losses are real. It can affect you profoundly and cripple your confidence; as it did with me. There's plenty of advice in here to keep you going, but you can only learn the emotional side of it thru losing and getting over it.
  30. 1 point
    Excuse the spelling on the red wine now hehehehe
  31. 1 point
    I can sort of see what you were trying to do, short the pullback failure but the entry should have been either up around 915 or wait until the prior low at 890 was taken out but not at 900 just as price was about to arrive at the 'First Trouble Area' (the low at 890), in fact almost anywhere but there.
  32. 1 point
    Dear IG and everyone else, Forex volume in PRT: Volume has been introduced by IG over the years on stocks and even forex in web-app. But I don't get any volume in PRT which is a bit of a deal-breaker so I don't have to juggle multiple accounts when I enjoy IG / PRT. To put it bluntly, where lies the problem? IG or PRT? PRT version 11. New version is out since a few months. Can we expect this anytime soon? Some of the features are very much awaited and I can't wait to get my hands on this. Last update took almost a year to implement on IG if I'm not incorrect. Any timeline on this? Hopefully not THAT long? Thanks
  33. 1 point
    looking for fx volume might be worth having a look on the futures chart, those contracts go though a central exchange unlike otc spot fx so it's easier for brokers to collect and display the data and is highly correlated to the spot market. IG have their own version of prt which normally takes a year to write after a new version has been released by prt. To get the premium version you would have to go to prt direct and pay their monthly subscription.
  34. 1 point
    I thought a lot could happen in 3 years. I read the posts... I fully understand Forex volume, OTC etc... and that it would be impossible to show all volume accurately. However, being a big house like IG and depending where they get their feed from, many datafeeds of volume are not too shabby. They give you a good overall understanding what is going on in volume. And volume is a key aspect of trading. Am I not right? Apparently someone decided that volume was good enough to have on IG web application for FX!! Thank you Sir / Madam! But question still remains - Why can't we have it on ProRealTime? I believe the latter is a PREMIUM product for more ADVANCED users who want MORE ? Not less than the web interface gives you!
  35. 1 point
    @sponthespread There are many bots available, thousands in fact and for all different types of trading, most are EAs for auto trading on the mt4 platform. The biggest resource is on the MQL5 market place where at least there are user reviews posted and usually a free trial period and any disputes are resolved by the web site controllers. The key to bots is not the speed but the relentless search for a particular setup and the systematic execution. That can be a disadvantage as well, bots are poor at reacting to changing market conditions, a bot written for a trending market will give back profits when the market starts ranging and visa versa. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/mt4/expert
  36. 1 point
    A very reasonable approach, I would prefer a shorter time on the demo and shifting onto MT4 where you get the live account experience starting at a much lower position size to build up from than on any other platform but each to his own. Learning markets, trading technique (rather than being fixated on TA) is key, once you've learnt to trade on one market it's relatively simple to learn any of the others but it all takes time.
  37. 1 point
    I think philosophically ALL info is Good Info. It's all part of your own knowledge base providing you understand it. I've certainly learned from this forum from all that have jumped in and offered 'opinions' on my cause. I once watched a man Spray a Car. It was effortless and the finish was amazing. While observing him I took care to watch his speed, his stroke direction and his patience. I figured providing I do the same I should also be able to do an amazing job. However, what I didn't see was the Prep of the body beforehand. The arduous sanding. The mixing of the paint so it was the correct viscosity, or the pressure applied to the variable trigger on his spray gun. :D
  38. 1 point
    Mentors can be very helpful, the problem is finding one who can help you develope in your own style rather than trying to bend you to their's. I've known some people who have tries 4 or 5 before making any headway. I also know that if I tried to trade at the start as I do now I couldn't have done it, it would have been a mess, so just trying to copy someone else's style will not usually work either. The problem with taking advice on forums is who to believe, I've seen whole cohorts of newbies being lead down a blind ally never to emerge again. Better to be lead by a mentor with a verified history than by an amateur with an ego.
  39. 1 point
    @AbDXB1345, a few of thoughts for you: I imagine few retail traders can give up the day job with the stats as they are, for me I use it as a means to grow capital in a world where normal investment seems too risky, but then that is the root of my bearish bias - well documented and oft criticised, sometimes with malice If someone posts on this site they offer you their opinion and views for free. They may have errors in their thinking and even in their technical expertise/experience. We would all be better off if we stuck to what we really know. However you will also notice that there are some on the forum who seem to pounce on these errors with glee, which to me is a poor response to someone offering their thoughts freely. Why not simply respectfully point out the error, I'm sure the poster would appreciate that more than being castigated. I believe this is why we have so few active posters on the forum (BTW, I am probably guilty of this in the past but seek to avoid it now) The better way to measure success in a forum discussion is via points gained or loss. This equalises the relative size of the account. The better trader is the one who makes the most points at the end of a period, period! Clearly one needs a sufficiently sizable account to trade for a living BUT trading for a living is not like a salary-mans job. You cannot expect a regular daily/weekly/monthly income. It will be very lumpy. Most of the truly successful traders will tell you that thy make most of their gains from fewer than 5% of their trades. Make of that what you will, it was given freely and in good faith...
  40. 1 point
    @adish, A question I have is whether your teaching is free? If so then why not just share with everyone on the IG Community? If it is not free then how much you are charging? This then leads me to another question which is what are you doing on IG? Are you here to look for potential customers to whom you can sell your trading strategy too?
  41. 1 point
    @DSchenk, yes the panto season started early this year. I thought the AG did very well and seems much more Prime Ministerial material than anyone since possible Thatcher, who, whether you like her or not, good PM material. Frankly I think the opposition played right into the Governments hands. General election odds must have shortened. Stopped out for no loss on FTSE100, still in the Dax day trades. Still in longer term US large cap Shorts too. Switch focus to US on US open so will not reenter the FTSE today.
  42. 1 point
    @DSchenkWatching the soap opera that is the British Parliament live today so can't answer in too much detail [BTW, it is a genius strategy by the Government who are wiping the floor with the opposition where one would have expected the reverse today!]. Answers as follows: Longer term approach yes but I adjust according to the market circumstances so generally long term swing trading but will day trade fast moves short when they present themselves, as today. As and Bs and 1s and 2s are labeling used in Elliot Wave Theory. Normally I analyse on Monthly/Quarterly/Weekly then Daily then 1H. I typically trade off the 1H within the longer time frame set ups but often do a check on the 15/5mins charts to ensure there is no imminent reversal in play. For day trading a fast move I will use 5mins for swings and stops - this I do very rarely. Hope that is useful. Back to the parliamentary drama.
  43. 1 point
    If they already have guys who can provide the 'tuition', why don't they get those guys to actually trade and make money instead of training newbies? This always confuses me. A good trader is someone who can make money trading, not someone who can only show you charts of completed patterns and tell you what they mean after the fact.
  44. 1 point
    Makes a lot of sense to me as you say it @BigDeal Who wants to start a spread bet company with me? Sounds like easy money
  45. 1 point
    First of all this was pre-market, I'm not giving too much on patterns pre-market cause once the market opens these low volume patterns might get overridden in a minute Secondly, stop above 7355 would've been too risky for my taste, when entering on market open in the 7345 area. Max risk I want to take is 5 points really. So stop above 7350 on the third try today worked out well with entry around 7345.
  46. 1 point
    ....but now you learn with experience.......Your decisions will be different; or they should be
  47. 1 point
    That would be me....though they're not CT's. What I believe that isn't in MSM is actually true or coming true. However, If you're suggesting that trading is NOT and conspiracy based upon markets, numbers and statistics then........It's important to realise that financial institutions and the likes of Insurance companies for Instance, Conspire to create wealth through the perversion of Fear, Loss, Scarcity and Greed. To assume it's is ONLY a Theory is a bit naive. Were you here in 2008?
  48. 1 point
    I used to take piano lessons. With enough practice, one can play beautiful pieces of music. One grows personally, being exposed to wonderful music and developing the discipline to read sheet music. Trading? One loses a lot of money and has nothing to show for it ... while some guy in a pin stripe suit at the City gets another £500,000 bonus this quarter for reaming the pond life ****.
  49. 1 point
    Time is a problem @dmedin, no question. It seems there are people on the forum who devote 100% of their working time to trading but most of us must juggle it with other things. Frankly I am not one of those who even wants to be sitting in front of the charts all day, it would drive me nuts and it is only really necessary is you are trading very short time frame charts. I did try it at first, mostly because I had no trust in a system, or the market for that matter. Mostly I had no trust in myself and for good reason, I had not put in the work and taken the time to gain the experience. And I lost and lost. Where else would you see people diving into something they have no training and experience of and risking their hard earned capital. "Down the dog" maybe... But then I stopped and decided to take a different approach. Everything I read led me to a simple conclusion. Professional or retail it doesn't matter, if you are competing against the high frequency algo traders and prop traders you need to take a different approach. It seemed to me that most, if not all, of the people who had been on this journey and successfully broke through the early days of losses and stumbling about and frustration and negativity did a few things in common as follows: Got a grip on themselves and the emotional part of their brain that was driving them to jump in at wrong times without a clear premise. This is chiefly about controlling the fear of missing out syndrome and dreaming of another life. Took the time to study and develop a methodology for analysing, trading and managing their account in a professional business like manner. Changed the way they traded to few bigger better at longer time frames. I am sure there are people on this forum who will disagree and tell you that you can make money on day-trading and scalping but if it doesn't suit you then don't do it. It didn't suit me, I couldn't see the woods for the trees down at 5mins etc. So I tried something else and it works much better for me. When asked about his rules for investing Warren Buffett replied, "don't lose money". It was a bit of a joke but there was a serious message there, the key is to limit losses and ride winners so as to max your profits. In this way you don't need to worry about hit rates and pushing the 50/50 coin toss to 55/45 in your favour. You just need to win big and lose small. I will typically lose 8 out of 10 times but I scratch quickly if price action does not go according to my thesis and move stops to break even as soon as possible. If on the 9th or 10th try I hit it then I am a net winner. Trading is a long term activity. The key to success is to be net ahead over a year not a day or a week. You cannot think in terms of getting a regular income, it just doesn't work like that. Also you have to take some profits when offered to keep your account ticking over or you risk running out of runway. Regarding your point on wave recognition, it is a problem but it is the same for everyone, professional and retail alike. It is called price discovery, the market participants watch the evolution of price and take into account other factors (like fundamentals) and create a premise. Then they test this premise by placing a trade. This is simply how it works. In terms of my specific comment, I really don't care at this point whether US large caps have just made a wave B or a wave 2 as the next wave in either case (C and 3 respectively) will be in the same direction, which is up. I will assess the price action as the move develops and make decisions about when to cash and when to reverse later based on my analysis. Deciding when to cash is where you want to be, not that it is much easier than anything else in trading... EWT note: an A-B-C can look very similar to a 1-2-3 (or 5) so context is critical.
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