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  1. 2 points
    WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS... HSBC... Deutsche and some other BIG banks just loaned the PBOC 450 BILLION to help them prevent their currency from total collapse.. The backstory.. The CEO of HSBC has just been fired for it.. It was said China has 3 trillion in US reserves but now it is being revealed.. 1 trillion was earmarked for the belt and road initiative and the other trillions have been tied up in swaps and derivatives as the currency has already dropped 30% to 7.5. It is estimated the currency will eventually devalue another 40%. ... Long gold 😉
  2. 1 point
    Hi all, I would like to share my trade idea on HSI, hope to get advise from all the great people here. 1. HSI remains weak on Daily chart. 2. Multiple week long protests and weak GDP weighs on Hong Kong market in the weeks to come. 3. Although HSI may find some relief from a recently announced economic package and any positive US-China trade talks, negative sentiment remains Trade Idea: 1. Current bull on daily chart is strong, it is likely exceed 20 EMA and extend beyond it. 2. Wait for candle to close below 20 EMA again. 3. Short with TP of 25000 for ~1000 pips. SL at 500 pips for R:R of 1:2
  3. 1 point
  4. 1 point
    Hi, just check you have gone through the steps as in the link below, if yes then to link mt4 to IG open mt4, 'File' > 'Open an account' and click on the IG data feeds (live or demo) click 'next' and follow the instructions. I think for live the logon and password details are sent by email but for demo they are just made up by the platform. https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-platforms/metatrader-4/download-mt4
  5. 1 point
    Of the specific event @AbDXB1345 maybe counter parties with exposure to GE, whether the insurance companies referenced by Markopolos or suppliers to GE, especially any with a significant portion of their business with GE. As GE has been a poor performer for decades it is not likely to be a huge impacting factor for investors as Enron was in 2000, given that Enron was riding high. For me it is more about a signal of a wider problem within the economic data being reported. It is rarely just one organisation that is hiding things, typically this is tip of the iceberg stuff and the contagion risk is that it spreads to the wider market and that will be enough to trigger a collapse event and a resulting recession or worse.
  6. 1 point
    @JamesIG Thanks for the reply!
  7. 1 point
    Part 1: Some of you will be familiar with the term 'Megatrends' when it comes to investment themes. I personally think within the Technology sector Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain and IOT are going to be high up in any list if they are not already. These technology themes have the potential to be what could be classed as 'Disruptors' in their field of use. They could also end up disrupting other trends. AI is a form of 'Machine Learning'. IBM and other large corporations have been and are currently doing a lot of work in this area. They are beginning to invest a lot of capital in the development phase. Here 'Big Data' plays an integral part. One company I invested in a while back which made a lovely return for me was 'WANDisco'. It is listed on the AIM market. AI is basically built on algorithms that learn by analysing lots of data. I think that is the simplest way I can explain it for those who may not be too familiar with this emerging and exciting theme from an investment perspective. Rather than repeat myself on Blockchain, those who are interested may want to read my Blockchain threads - Blockchain Trilogy by TrendFollower. IOT is happening now. To put is as simply as I possibly can it is where connected devices talk to each other. This will produce big data. This is where in my view AI comes in. AI will be able to analyse this data, identify trends, model / predict potential outcomes from patterns that us mere humans would not be possible to do, especially in the speed required. So IOT would be the way to supply the data and AI would be the way to mine the data. IOT = 'Data Supplier' and AI = 'Data Miner'. Blockchain is basically a 'Distributed Ledger'. Blockchain will keep a ledger of how devices which connect with each other communicate and when. There will be an audit trail which will be tamper proof (or least likely to be tampered with). It will keep a record of how devices interact with each other. It will be like a form of glue which can bring AI and IOT together and bind it with the ability to record and date stamp important events. Blockchain will be vital where there are any interactions and transactions. It is when tokens / digital payments / cryptocurrencies may possibly be used. 'Smart Contracts' could be used where there is an exchange of goods and services. Here is will be able to improve the compliance, improve the cost efficiency and I think will be crucial in the management, tracking and auditing of supply chains across the globe. From the reading and research I have carried out, IBM, is doing a lot of work in this area. They are one of the largest technology companies in the world. They will have hired some of the finest minds in the world for this area. To be continued... (Part II - Coming Soon)
  8. 1 point
    Introduction: Disclaimer: This thread was inspired by Caseynotes' thread on the same topic. He actually posted his thread before mine but there were a few things missing in my opinion. Many of you who follow me or read my posts will know that I have stated on many occasions in the past that one must have a 'Trading Plan', 'Trading Strategy' and a 'Trading System'. You will see this statement from me on many different threads and posts over the past couple of years. I am going use this thread to start a discussion on the 'Trading Plan'. Before one even starts to devise a trading plan they must have a passion, drive and enthusiasm for trading and prior to this for investing. My personal belief based on experience is that one must have a sound understanding of investing and ideally should have invested in the past. Ideally they are still investing now for the long term. This is the foundation that in my opinion is necessary. It must be like a religion for them. They must follow this religion daily and it has to be sort of like an obsession. Only then can one actually be motivated to spend the necessary time and effort that is required. One of the cheesy lines that is so true is, "Failing to Plan is a plan to fail". The trading plan must be a document and that is in writing and not just in one's thoughts. A lot of traders think they have a trading plan and then you realise they think just having a trading style in their mind which they follow is the trading plan. Let me be very clear here. It is not. It must be a written document. Now IG have already posted on their main website details of how to create a successful trading plan. I am going to share the link with you below. Many of you will have seen this and if not then you can see it below. There is little point in just repeating what IG have already stated or merely regurgitating what is on the internet for all to see completely free of charge. How to create a successful trading plan https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/how-to-create-a-successful-trading-plan-181210 What I want to try and do is add details and thoughts from my personal perspective to try and add some real value here. If people do not agree then that is fine and it is their choice. I will try and keep the audience in mind and those who read my threads and posts on the IG Community and keep it as simple as possible. First Key Question: The first key question is why you want to trade? The answer to this will lead you to start the trading plan by writing down the 'Aims and Objectives'. What are the aims and objectives behind the decision to trade? Now different websites and people will refer to this as 'Trading Goals'. Here you will clearly articulate what you are trying to or want to achieve. It is likely that it will refer to some form of financial goals as they generally do but on occasions it may not be about money if you are looking to fill your time during retirement. This beginning part is very important as it will shape your trading plan. To be continued...
  9. 1 point
    Time is a problem @dmedin, no question. It seems there are people on the forum who devote 100% of their working time to trading but most of us must juggle it with other things. Frankly I am not one of those who even wants to be sitting in front of the charts all day, it would drive me nuts and it is only really necessary is you are trading very short time frame charts. I did try it at first, mostly because I had no trust in a system, or the market for that matter. Mostly I had no trust in myself and for good reason, I had not put in the work and taken the time to gain the experience. And I lost and lost. Where else would you see people diving into something they have no training and experience of and risking their hard earned capital. "Down the dog" maybe... But then I stopped and decided to take a different approach. Everything I read led me to a simple conclusion. Professional or retail it doesn't matter, if you are competing against the high frequency algo traders and prop traders you need to take a different approach. It seemed to me that most, if not all, of the people who had been on this journey and successfully broke through the early days of losses and stumbling about and frustration and negativity did a few things in common as follows: Got a grip on themselves and the emotional part of their brain that was driving them to jump in at wrong times without a clear premise. This is chiefly about controlling the fear of missing out syndrome and dreaming of another life. Took the time to study and develop a methodology for analysing, trading and managing their account in a professional business like manner. Changed the way they traded to few bigger better at longer time frames. I am sure there are people on this forum who will disagree and tell you that you can make money on day-trading and scalping but if it doesn't suit you then don't do it. It didn't suit me, I couldn't see the woods for the trees down at 5mins etc. So I tried something else and it works much better for me. When asked about his rules for investing Warren Buffett replied, "don't lose money". It was a bit of a joke but there was a serious message there, the key is to limit losses and ride winners so as to max your profits. In this way you don't need to worry about hit rates and pushing the 50/50 coin toss to 55/45 in your favour. You just need to win big and lose small. I will typically lose 8 out of 10 times but I scratch quickly if price action does not go according to my thesis and move stops to break even as soon as possible. If on the 9th or 10th try I hit it then I am a net winner. Trading is a long term activity. The key to success is to be net ahead over a year not a day or a week. You cannot think in terms of getting a regular income, it just doesn't work like that. Also you have to take some profits when offered to keep your account ticking over or you risk running out of runway. Regarding your point on wave recognition, it is a problem but it is the same for everyone, professional and retail alike. It is called price discovery, the market participants watch the evolution of price and take into account other factors (like fundamentals) and create a premise. Then they test this premise by placing a trade. This is simply how it works. In terms of my specific comment, I really don't care at this point whether US large caps have just made a wave B or a wave 2 as the next wave in either case (C and 3 respectively) will be in the same direction, which is up. I will assess the price action as the move develops and make decisions about when to cash and when to reverse later based on my analysis. Deciding when to cash is where you want to be, not that it is much easier than anything else in trading... EWT note: an A-B-C can look very similar to a 1-2-3 (or 5) so context is critical.
  10. 1 point
    I love this game, anyone can play and IG clients are always at it. During multi-year bull runs you will find the majority of IG clients are trying to short the market, usually between 60 and 70% at any given time, brilliant. I often wonder what makes it psychologically so enticing to keep trying to pick tops? I personally think it's because people look at the chart and see price is at the top of the screen ergo it must be about to turn round and come down right? I also wonder if the reverse is true, that in a bear market do IG clients keep trying to pick the bottom and buy? Bear markets come round so infrequently I've not had a chance to check. The two charts side by side below, are either of these the 'top'? who knows, realistically the 'top' can only be determined with hindsight, 'keeping your power dry' through multi-year bull runs waiting for the big crash just doesn't make any sense, play the chart in front of you not the one you hope to see in the future. The charts below are weekly, the S+P can take months to roll over so why would you be trying to pick the day, what's the point in being wrong hundreds of times in order to be right one day, but as the bottom chart shows there are always plenty takers.
  11. 1 point
    no, instead think Remora, attached to the shark so follows closely and is lead to food.
  12. 1 point
    Sorry. Sports Direct :O
  13. 1 point
    Yes, it works well for me. You can define position visibility in charts but not in the panels I think. Kind of a stupid question, but it *is* the same account on both devices, right?
  14. 1 point
    Well, even though i got out early for -£30 it's clear I had my Stop in the obvious place for Stop Hunting. It's a cut and dry result surely? So the lesson is, Don't put your Stops in the obvious places....Or they WILL be Hunted.
  15. 1 point
    Below gives a snapshot answer to recession worries. Due to the recent trade war events, Goldman now estimates a cumulative drag on GDP of 0.6%, including a 0.2% drag from the latest escalation. You can also read more about Goldman Sachs slashing US GDP growth forecast as US-China trade war continues here.
  16. 1 point
    Gold is looking compelling from an investment horizon right now. It looks rather attractive from a longer term trading perspective too. Let us start with the 'Monthly'. To me it seems like there is a potential breakout on the horizon which gives a bullish tone to the narrative. The price action will provide confirmation in the months and years to come. The 'Weekly' seems to be showing a stronger narrative of the potential breakout. It is the 'Daily' which is where it begins to get rather interesting and this is coming from someone who does not like Gold as an investment! Here the price action has confirmed the breakout for me. This narrative continues until the 1 Hour chart where short term problems arise in the upward trending bullish narrative. This is normal and perfectly healthy. I would have loved to have shown the respective charts to make my point but for some reason it was not allowing me to do so. Therefore please accept my apologies but I am sure you can switch the timeframes and see for yourself.
  17. 1 point
    That is a hell of a weekly pin bar candle on this week on the SP500 and other US large caps. The week isn't over though and my question is whether or not this is sustainable? If I look at the 1H chart the SP500 has hit the Fib 62%, a classic retrace level, which is also on a zone of wave C, wave A equivalence, another typical feature for a move turn. The market dropped sharply after the close last night and I went in on a Spec Short. The overnight price action didn't resolve anything but this morning the European markets are looking a little bearish early on. Based on the Weekly candle I think the market should end the week a bit lower at a minimum. Based on technicals we could either be seeing a larger A-B-C with a higher test next week or a smaller, although not small, A-B-C completed to bring up another bearish phase and break through recent lows. In addition to the above technicals I also have a valid A-B-C (red labels) and NMD at the turn and possibly a small 1-2 done with a larger wave 3 down in the offing.
  18. 1 point
    another US Casino opening a WMH sports book https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/affinity-gamings-lakeside-hotel--casino-announces-opening-of-william-hill-sports-book-300898748.html Market announcement in interims for tomorrow. https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=wmh Anecdotal evidence says the group are now closing shops and tidying up the operation for a US suitor to swoop. Of course the depreciation of GBP will make this a more appealing prospect than before. We wait.. Hope everyone is surviving the turmoil of late.
  19. 1 point
    If the market turns bearish at this juncture I expect it will drop a lot further than 1450 @dmedin. Going Long there could be catching the falling knife. All depends on a) a turn and b) the price action nature of the move down. If the market turns at 1500 then with the level of NMD against it I would anticipate a significant bearish move until that negativity is eroded. A breakout of the resistance area (or your wedge if it would be valid) would be a bullish signal to buy the breakout.
  20. 1 point
    Beat me to the notification! I will be updating all those who have queried this tomorrow - both on and off Community.
  21. 1 point
    A lot of advice out there flat out contradicts other advice. But unless people can demonstrate effectiveness with their system (and the only way to do that is to demonstrate consistent or net profits over a given time frame) then they are full of hot air. (Or in other words, a professional technical analyst.) For example, it seems reasonable to let profits run and cut losses short. But some people will tell you to aggressively take profit at a certain level. And there is all the nonsense of whether to have a stop loss or not. I always remind myself that 74% of people doing this lose money. That puts a lot of what you hear into perspective.
  22. 1 point
    ok, try this link https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php you may need to set the time right but it will remember once done, you don't need to register, once the page is set up save it to your favourites bookmark bar.
  23. 1 point
    @dmedin, The reason why I made the comment about waves is because I am not convinced and the hard data and evidence has not been presented to me which explains why prices, assets and markets must adhere to the principles of Elliot Wave Theory. For me it is just another method or tool to use to try and forecast / predict future price movements. There is nothing wrong with that and traders using it, though I do wonder how much profit they are making per annum. That is the key metric for me. Profit Maximisation. That is what matters. You can have all the charts, lines, intelligent sounding discussions with lots of technical and complex matters but it does not mean you are outperforming someone in terms of profits per annum that partakes in none of that.
  24. 1 point
    @dmedin, I can't remember where I read this term 'mental masturbation' but it refers to those people who over analyse, who conduct extremely complex technical analysis, produce even more complex charts that look more busier than the London Underground and give intelligent sounding reasoning on what is likely to happen in the future but during all this time they are not trading the opportunities in front of them. It seems likely that there will be a move downwards. I will leave the 'waves' for surfers and for the sea! 😀
  25. 1 point
    The call in yesterday morning's post for a retest of 1400 was spot on to the tick but missed the bit about then going on to test 1450, could be a waiting day today to see how the indices perform and what NFP brings this afternoon.
  26. 1 point
    "Stablecoins"! Interesting that. It is often the case that the early adopters get killed and a new paradigm emerges from the wreckage. This happened in the first internet bubble when the self appointed disruptors declared they would end big business by making everything free on the internet, while becoming millionaires. They were not able to answer the obvious contradiction and most of them lost everything as big business took over. The likes of Google and Amazon are now big business. They run their operations as a normal listed company must. They obey the rules (except for paying taxes, which will be addressed in due course as governments catch up). They are mainstream now, that is the price of success and the payoff of course. The obvious flaw in the crypto devotees argument is the constant citing of crypto valuation possibilities in USD (i.e. FIAT currency). Yes in order to actually make money on this they have to sell and convert to the very thing they are claiming to be replacing. In order to ascribe value to their crypto holding they have to refer to USD, because that is how it works. The point I have been making consistently on this topic, that seems to drive the crypto devotees mental, is that I believe the crypto story will end the same way as the internet bubble. The technology is very interesting, no question. Governments and accountancy institutions (including my own) are studying it with a view to leveraging in into the mainstream (principally to address lack of visibility/accountability in accounting and to bring in paperless currency, FIAT currency - Stablecoin?). To this end government will legislate private crypto out of existence and mainstream tech players will step in o pick up the pieces (enter Facebook... I wonder when Google and Amazon will kick in...). The providers of technology will do well as they will start to work for the governments of the world (probably via these big tech giants); it has already started. The current crop of cryptos, as the article suggests, will become valueless. Doubtless there is still a trading ride for those brave enough to take it on and I see upside in the crypto mania to come before the end. For me the end of crypto will be a signal for the end of the wider bull frenzy but are we there yet? Maybe but probably not yet. I could see Bitcoin regaining its past highs, maybe making some ATH above or perhaps a double top before the players cash again and pull the rug out from under the frenzy buyers (again!). That is a purely technical analysis perspective; obviously my fundamentals perspective is the exact opposite (hence I call this a mania, and the hype is exactly the same as that I experienced in 2000 - buyer beware!)
  27. 1 point
    "Tulip Trust"! Interesting choice...
  28. 1 point
    @dmedin, it is not surprising to me that some, maybe many, professional traders and/or analysts don't like or use trend lines. There are many techniques out there, which is why the idea of the self fulfilling prophesy doesn't hold water and also the reason said techniques can work, because if everyone was using the same techniques and using them in the same way then everyone would see the same things and the market would be perfect (i.e. always at the "right" price), which it patently is not. In terms of trend lines themselves, they are merely a way for chartists to visualise the price action. They do need to be evolved with price action, as has been mentioned above, and the do need multiple (min 3) touches and bounces away to be valid (chartist rule). However they are often not reliable for trading decision as the final move in a wave may not reach the line or may penetrate and recover within the line in a more volatile market. The time frame is also important, especially for that latter situation as, for example, on a weekly chart price could spend the while week below or above a trend line but it it returns back to the other side of the line within the week the line will still be valid. This is even more problematic when you consider there is often not much difference between a weekly chart and monthly chart trend line... For this reason some analysts, including me, will use other techniques such as Ichimoku or Bollinger bands overlaid on trend lines. In addition some use moving averages of various sorts to do the same thing. This all works only when the scenario suits (i.e. some of the above are only useful for trend following and not for swing turn identification. For me it is about gaining experience using the techniques in concert and with other techniques and fundamentals and picking the ones that suit you best.
  29. 1 point
    Hi, yes, this is what the guaranteed stop was introduced to counter (slippage risk), I've not used it myself but have not seen anyone complain that it did not work as required.
  30. 1 point
    @dmedin, It all depends on the when you went long, the reasons why you went long and what signal / indicator triggered your long position. So it would only be hasty if you just went long on a feeling or you just had a thought to go long. My two top performing funds in the past 12 months or so in my investment fund portfolio have been 'Japanese Smaller Companies' and 'US Smaller Companies'. I therefore have a long position on US small caps so if there was any drop from an investment perspective I would continue to hold and add on any dips. I am using 'Pound Cost Averaging' strategy with lump sum investments only on major corrections and drops. What I would do from a trading perspective if any downward move in US indices were sharp and strong is to consider shorting them if they were at the time one of the strongest trending assets.
  31. 1 point
    Dax is holding station wanting to go higher but is waiting for Dow to make up it's mind, see dax and dow thread.
  32. 1 point
    J&J did indeed bounce near the multi-year up trend - will see how much energy there is in the bounce this time. It might be that we get another shot at going short.
  33. 1 point
    yes, it's worth checking these 2 IG sites at the weekends for content; https://community.ig.com/igtv/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwvras8SRKKhx_cboj2p1nw
  34. 1 point
    Great, and Thanks for the prompt reply!
  35. 1 point
    Directional continuation yesterday and this morning with continued expectation of Fed and ECB taking the lower rates line, Asian market most relieved. Daily charts;
  36. 1 point
    there is always a case for either direction so look at structure, decide on probabilities then decide what you need to see to validate the decision before entry. The mistake wasn't the call, it was not waiting for validation. the 11am turned out to be another pause bar so with the entry too early are stuck in a 50/50 situation when you really need probability on your side.
  37. 1 point
    you are anticipating this pullback to roll over, wait to see if it does. two ways to play it but the H1 chart looks key so you could play it straight off that, so a close below 696 and entry on the 12pm bar continuation down or switch to the lower time frame and wait for a pullback to enter short. This 11am bar is crucial, after an inside bar the next bar should be directional, either continuation up or reversal back down, don't really want to see continued uncertainty with another pause bar but it's looking like that may happen, see if someone steps in in the last 15 min.
  38. 1 point
    Hey - certain teams can see your trade activity (such as the dealing desk, client services so they can assist with dealing questions, and account managers if you have one). Trading on the actions of clients is illegal, and we have a number of automated functions in place to stop this happening. It's worth noting that its highly likely that this is the same for all deal execution brokers and share dealing platforms - I wouldn't be able to see how they could function otherwise!
  39. 1 point
    pregnant with thought is not thought, it just means you've been ******* you need to drop the personality and be a machine, a number, because the market just does not care about you.
  40. 1 point
  41. 1 point
  42. 1 point
    This has suddenly become a very big problem for all brokers and started cropping up in the news just a few weeks ago, it's being caused by Payment Service Providers and the future of card use for money transfers looks bleak. https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/global-crackdown-on-fx-continues-psps-freezing-transfers/ https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/fx-industry-officials-on-psps-freeze-we-are-losing-millions-of-dollars/
  43. 1 point
    S&P sits just under 3000 and poised to move higher. Daily chart;
  44. 1 point
    If the UK adopts a sane cannabis policy (which is probably never will) will that decision be reversed? I mean seriously ... how uptight and prudish can you be? Trading tobacco stocks is fine even though tobacco kills millions of people?
  45. 1 point
    @Kodiak, That means you must look at your stop loss strategy. If you are trading a strong trend (volatility occurs in all trading assets) and if your stop loss is too tight and you keep on getting stopped out then the winner is the broker not you. If you have selected the correct trend which is strong and you are trading with the trend then you must have an effective stop loss strategy. You may want to revisit your risk management and have a look at position size, how much you are willing to risk on each trade based on your risk tolerance and try and come up with a more effective stop loss mechanism that eliminates this issue but at the same time does not increase your overall losses in your trading account. I must make it clear that it is about trading the strongest trends (which tend to be bubbles, hype, frenzy, speculation) etc. I love those types of trends and one must not fear them but embrace them. They are the trends that will make the biggest profits. The weaker the trend you trade the harder it is to have a sound stop loss strategy as volatility will stop you out. It is how your trading system deals with volatility which will be key.
  46. 1 point
    Hi there, I've never traded shares before so this is still new to me. Sorry in advance of I all some silly questions.
  47. 0 points
    I've said it once and I'll say it again, day trading is a TOTAL mug's game. ALL of the people you see promoting it are chancers, liars and cretins. Somebody please stop me ... I'm addicted to something that is hurting me!
  48. 0 points
    I'm just like that too. But I have found that since I started taking my time and not trading to scalp or 'day' trade I am stemming my losses and can occasionally make some money on a swing/position trade, which gives me some hope that I can make this work long term. Sadly I don't think I can do this for a living, even although I want to one day.
  49. 0 points
    WOW! When I seen the headline I expected some informed news... Talk about Click Bait!
  50. 0 points
    @nit2wynit Just a different prospective. 👿
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