Jump to content


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/12/18 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    I was looking at the Gold chart and the one thing I have noticed since the 'bottom' on Thursday 16th August 2018 is that Gold has been making 'higher lows' and to a certain degree 'higher highs' though the lower lows have been more stronger than the higher highs. Now a potential Gold trade could be that when the next higher low is formed to open a long trade with a stop loss around the $1200 area to ensure volatility does not stop you out unnecessarily. I think a price to go long around the $1220 - $1225 area could be achievable and also an attractive entry point. I see Gold trying to attempt the $1243.00 area which would bring it nicely towards the 200 day moving average price. This is something that I myself will be considering as Gold is currently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is my indicator/signal to start getting interested. I am never convinced with the potential points / profits on offer with Gold and I do not at this point envisage a big move in Gold which is the reason why I have not yet pulled the trigger on such a trade. For me to personally be interested in this trade I would need to apply some serious leverage to maximise the profit potential as I just do not see a big move yet in Gold. It could happen in the months or years to come but right now I am not sure. I could be wrong and Brexit could start a domino effect but I do think Gold has the potential based on the current price action to certainly go for the $1243 area which could be a nice short term trade. I have included a diagram below where I have highlighted the 'lower lows' and slightly weaker 'higher highs' below. The circle at the end is where I am envisaging the price to hit at some point in December / January should this trend continue. I think there is a potential short term 'Long' trade here in Gold and though I am not a fan of Gold based on point / profit potential, I think I could get interested when applying leverage to maximise any profits in such a trade.
  2. 1 point
    Feeding from post on the "Great Bear is Upon Us" thread, where I posted the Daily chart for the Dow in the run up to Dec 2007 and the comparison to today's price action I now have a turn at the wave 2 (blue) point previously identified, which is a lower high than the 8 Nov high (it the turn and drop holds of course). The case for the top already being in is already made but just to briefly reprise (weekly chart below): The EWT count is credible for a Wave 5 completion (and super cycle wave 5 completion) at the Oct top The Oct top is an effective double top with the Jan top, just a bit higher, which is similar to 2007 The bearish move down to late Oct/early Nov is consistent with a 1-5 motive wave, which is suggestive of a trend change (unconfirmed) The rally back up to Nov 8 is an A-B-C form, which turned on the Fib 76% (very high but consistent with a counter trend rally). This adds to the notion of a trend change Now we have a lower high rally ending on a gap, which is about to be filled - over exuberance in a last gasp? There is NMD at the Oct top (and additionally divergence in other oscillators, which were all overbought on the weekly chart and not yet oversold - more to go in the Bear, phase 1!) The pattern is consistent with 2007, doesn't have to be but doesn't hurt... The volatility of the whole of the 2018 price action is suggestive of an ending pattern as bulls and bears slug it out. This means that the Bear camp is growing in numbers and power. The recent rallies are too strong. What I mean by this is that normally rallies build slowly at first if they are going to have staying power, this one burst out too quickly, expending all it's momentum and now may not have any more drive. For this current rally to have staying power it would be signaling a massive Bullish phase to come (from an EWT perspective). So I find myself having to either remain Bearish or seek a 5000+ point rally. I just can't get with the latter on a Fundamentals perspective (yet!). So where are we now? The charts below show the Oct Top on the Weekly and the pattern I have discussed before on the Daily, including the turn at wave 2 (blue). The Daily and Hourly charts shows the turn close up, which was on the Fib 88% (I have noted that recently we have seen a lot of 88% and double top/bottom retraces as things get volatile. On the Daily Stochastic is over bought again, which often happens at a retrace end. On the hourly, I have a set of channel lines, just broken this morning and being retested (however similar channels are not yet broken on other US markets). I have a credible EWT count for a retrace on the rally to yesterdays turn (albeit very powerful, almost straight up..!). Alas I do not have NMD, which I would ideally like but may not get owing to the strength of the rally, however this means I cannot yet rule out another leg up. The Gap is not yet closed, nor on other US markets. In summary then this is not ticking all my boxes but is a credible set up for me so long as other indices are aligning. And boy is the Nikkei aligning... I also have Gold and Silver rallying as projected, although that may have more to do with the USD at present. The USD bearishness is the only nagging doubt, however if you look at 2007 you will see that USD (DX) did continue down for a few months as the 2007 bear started and only rallied when the market realised the game was up on stocks, so perhaps this is also aligned... In the final analysis, in trading, you have to take a chance. The point of technical analysis is to help identify big picture turns and trends (together with Fundamentals) and to identify higher probability that 50/50 trading points. After that it is in the lap of the gods so good money management is required. If this works out the the Dow could offer 5000+ points Short in the first phase. This would dwarf any other set up (including Bitcoin and it's ilk) in my view.
  3. 1 point
    there are different methods to identify a trend break. Personally I like several confirmations. Here's a recent one , using MACD divergence, Moving averages and of course a trend line. This can work in multiple timeframes
  4. 1 point
    the 150 ema works well for me on most timeframes. Also I like to look at a lot of different things in different time frames
  5. 1 point
    150 ema different time frames , same index
  6. 1 point
    Hi, @Nelsy-Boy, like I say, I prefer more than one confirmation. The trend line break is the "heads up" , with something this fast , I prefer some of the MAs to be on my side. If price crosses back over them , I know I'm wrong. The 150 EMA is my favourite, for me that usually confirms a change in trend
  7. 1 point
    I think your trade was a decent idea but on 26th we tested real support and bounced higher off it. Since then Algo's have taken it higher for two days now. We tried to come off a little yesterday but the weight of end of day buying was large. Personally I think we can bounce higher for 5-10days into the New Year which will then give you a better entry point. The FANG stocks are helping to drive the short covering and everyone got a bit spooked about that flat bond yield curve which in the past has forecast a recession. You can now see that curve steepening up 2/10's.There may well be a bigger dip coming in January/February however but it might get painful for you to hold a short until we spike higher.
  8. 1 point
    Silver is now trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. The 20 DMA is moving upwards, the 50 and 100 DMA are moving sideways though 50 DMA seems as if it wants to creep upwards. The 200 DMA which has just been hit moving downwards. What I would like to see to add further strength into this trade is all four of 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA all moving upwards. So though the price is above all four of these moving average timeframes, the trend will be strong if they were all moving upwards in direction which they are not in this moment. Gold is different. Its price is also above the 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA and it got there before Silver. The difference is that Gold's 20, 50 and 100 DMA are all now moving upwards which is extremely positive. Its 200 DMA is moving downwards but if this begins to move upwards the strength of the trend will be beautiful for Gold. It really will begin to shine. So we are not quite there yet on both Gold and Silver but certainly heading in the right direction. Now some may ask why not wait for the above before entering the trade. Yes that would be a valid entry point but I wanted to get into the trade as early as I could and it met my personal entry point indicators. The above for me will be trend and trade confirmation at its best.
  9. 1 point
    We did indeed see a short rally (A-B-C form) on the US markets but it turned out to be very shallow, ending sharply with a pin bar on the Dow and the Fib 23% (very weak rally, very Bearish form). This retrace completes a break and retest of the Ice Line support/resistance - the zone coincident with the wave 4 turn on the previous major rally - see weekly chart below to see the Ice line). It also completes a 1-5 down to wave 1 (brown) so with that and both a confirmed break of the Ice line and further lower low and a 1-2 retrace done we should see a sustained bearish move. The only thing to watch out for now is a Flag/Pennant consolidation (Daily chart level), which typically occurs at about half way along the entire move and is therefore a useful indicator of where the end of this Bearish move will occur. The Short term outlook therefore is for a continued Bear market (with only a Flag to negotiate, which should not breach the Ice Line). The Flag should give us a clue about where the move may end, there are several possibilities (marked on my Weekly Chart but we will have to monitor price action to get more clues). Medium term I will be looking for a big picture EWT 1-2 retrace, Fib 50% or 62% are favourites but we will have to wait and see where the current Bear move ends before thinking about this too much, except to be prepared for the reversal. It is easy to get drawn into a Bearish frame of mind and forget that markets move in waves or zigzags. My trading strategy: Continue to sell into any rallies (this may start to be intraday as the Bear picks up pace) and move stops to break even quickly to guard against the forthcoming consolidation phase, which may look like a rally or could be a so-called Flat (sideways price action). I do not expect it to last very long, a week or so maybe and could very well occur during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, in which case a Flat could very well emerge. Once I see the consolidation Flag complete and break lower there will be a sustained Bearish period to the end of this move, which is likely to offer very few retraces so intraday rally selling will be the mechanism to add to Shorts, again moving stops quickly as the market proceeds down. Assess for the likely end of the move and cash all Shorts below the Ice line at a minimum and potentially look to swing Long if the opportunity presents itself. A key decision will be whether to cash all Shorts, even those above the Ice line and seek to leverage profits into fresh Shorts when the retrace ends and turns back into the very big wave 3 Bear. Not sure what is best here, likely to cash some and keep a few from the very top for live leverage.