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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/08/19 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Will USD rally or drop? That seems to be the battle ground right now on FX. The trend is with USD but if the trend is turning then we need to see signals of this across multiple pairs with the USD. The Chinese devalued the Yuan vs USD recently, allegedly as a trade war ploy but maybe there is a deeper need for the Chinese economy (still chiefly an export of manufactured good led economy despite some commentators trying to tell us it has turned internal consumer led, like Western economies) to keep its currency low vs its main customers. Could the trade war/negotiations be merely a vehicle for the Chinese to get air cover for their manipulations? Maybe this action had a knock on effect on USd pairs as USD got a boost but if that is over now then we should be seeing reversal signals. Perhaps this is the bigger macro event and not relatively tiny issues like Brexit..? On AUDUSD I think we may have one of those signals but first let's look at the macro backdrop. On the weekly chart we can see that this pair broke a long term consolidation channel, possible a Pennant (have to look at the Monthly or Quarterly to see it) and we got a bearish phase since then but of later we may have seen a pin bar reversal on strong PMD with oscillators over sold. The long term trend is bearish but before things really meltdown we are likely to see a bullish counter trend rally. That pin bar is clearer on the daily chart and currently we are seeing a small scale reversal that may be a 1-2 retrace down before a larger rally. If we look at the 1H chart we can see that 1-2 more closely and the whole move looks like a V shaped reversal pattern, which, if we get a rally back and price breakout out of the resistance at the top of the V, we may well see a strong rally away. Currently price is tracing an A-B-C and has been stopped at the Fib 50%. Could make it down to the 62% yet but in any case we are looking for a break of the overhead resistance. Ideally I would like to see other USD pairs moving the same way.
  2. 1 point
    There is a lot of talking up of the current bull market in stocks and bonds with concepts like the the "new normal" of ultra low interest rates (ZIRP/NIRP) and never-ending QE. At the same time there is a lot of talking up of precious metals and the fantasy that Bitcoin will be the new asset du jour to take down Fiat currency because people no longer trust the policy makers around Fiat currency. Seems like these two concepts are at odds. The one thing that shatters all these narratives, chiefly, in my opinion, being peddled by those with vested interests in what they are saying being true, or perhaps more like they want the general public to believe it, is a significant recession or worse. Recently Real Vision ran a few weeks of very interesting interviews under the banner of "recession watch" if you haven't check it you your should, some of the material may be on their free access area. https://www.realvision.com/free I've posted on retail problems before, there are more out there, the retail situations just gets worse and worse. Retail falls if consumers are concerned. Manufacturing comes next and then services in a cascade. The headline data is also late on this. You have to look at the various factors rather than the headline. I'd be interested in any content or forum users views on whether we re heading into, or perhaps are already in a recession just not yet declared (note recessions are declared after the fact not in advance). Here is a video interview with Roubini, nicknamed Dr Doom for his dire warnings about the US house price boom from 2005, for which he was vindicated in 2007 of course where he is talking about an impending recession and indeed declares that the US is already in a manufacturing recession. Doesn't have much good to say about Bitcoin either...
  3. 1 point
    Well, even though i got out early for -£30 it's clear I had my Stop in the obvious place for Stop Hunting. It's a cut and dry result surely? So the lesson is, Don't put your Stops in the obvious places....Or they WILL be Hunted.
  4. 1 point
    Yeah i reckon there's a good possibility . I think it was a Knee **** reaction to news.....So it could recover quite well. about 1k to be had if it does if you can afford the risk. Either way I'll keep an eye on it. that's me done for today I think. Missed my £100 win earlier on Russell 2000. Took a £4.50 hit now - £30 too. My loss limit for a day now is -£25 so I'm out.
  5. 1 point
    @dmedin, you misunderstood me. I was suggesting that people who peddle the hype behind things like bitcoin taking over from Fiat and the never ending stocks bull or indeed those who recognise a fall is coming but position it as a "healthy" correction and anyway it wont come for another 2 years or so have a vested interest in keeping investors invested. Money managers don't get paid if investors are not invested. Worse even is the risk of a collapse of their funds a la Neil Woodford. In short the turkeys don't vote for Christmas, which is why you rarely hear financial services firms, or even IFAs, telling you to get out.
  6. 1 point
    Below gives a snapshot answer to recession worries. Due to the recent trade war events, Goldman now estimates a cumulative drag on GDP of 0.6%, including a 0.2% drag from the latest escalation. You can also read more about Goldman Sachs slashing US GDP growth forecast as US-China trade war continues here.
  7. 1 point
    Why don't we work a chart together and see what we both think and compare.? Maybe we're making the same mistakes?
  8. 1 point
    Not sure about the app platform but the mt4 will allow this as well, it means you can have an initial tighter stop and a larger trailing one, the trailing one only comes into view once it has overtaken the fixed stop level which disappears.
  9. 1 point
    Thanks Caseynotes most helpful.
  10. 1 point
    Just to update the link to COT charts as the previous one above now asks for registration you can also find them here. https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders Also see the Gold monthly chart and 'COT Jaws' below, a really good way to highlight what the COT graphs are trying to tell you
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