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Showing content with the highest reputation on 21/08/19 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    Agree @ChrisN and @dmedin that is pretty much what I had already posted in my Gold/Silver rally thread, except that mine was a more simplified version of the same thing. At the time I couldn't decide if it was a 1-2 or a pennant consolidation (chartist rather than EWT technique) and the retrace did not go as low as I had expect; although it worked very well on Silver, which is one reason I prefer to trade Silver. As ChrisN said, great example of a classic complex retrace, EWT analysts will lap that up every time and get Long the breakout, which is what I did. But hey, if it does't work for you fair enough, find something else that does.
  2. 2 points
    Quite. Thanks for the great example. He correctly identified the low of wave 2 at 1270 and gave a big hint as to what he expected next. "Turning Up". A big move up in 3 which went off the top of chart!! If you know what you're looking at or employ the services of someone who does then I would regard the above as an excellent example of the power of EWT. Thanks again.
  3. 2 points
    And this needs watching like a hawk. Care to guess what it is? Put you out of your misery!, It's the SX7E - EuroStoxx Banking Index. What's that? Well it's the biggest (roughly 25) banks in Europe (not UK). If they don't pull their skirts up soon....all will be revealed!!
  4. 2 points
    OK I think I see what you are saying but applying your own rules/interpretation of EWT isn't following the discipline. EWI is probably the best authority on this. They have plenty of free resources that can be very helpful with a free subscription. Ah! We all want proof in this world. Who doesn't? I won't be drawn into a us v them on this subject - been there done it - many years ago. It seems pointless to me preaching and I don't see it as my job to do so. In religion/politics/philosophy etc you have your preferences. So be it. Proof would destroy all of then. There are plenty of resources available and then draw your own conclusions. I'll leave it at that.
  5. 1 point
    This chart suggests price is breaking down, I wonder what that means for the world's economies ?
  6. 1 point
    @Caseynotes Hah! You betcha bottom dollar fella! After Donald Trump became US President he went on a fact-finding visit to Israel. While he was on a tour of Jerusalem he suffered a heart attack and died. The undertaker told the American diplomats who were accompanying him, 'You can have him shipped home for $50,000, or you can bury him here in the Holy Land, for just $100. The American diplomats went into a corner and discussed this for a several minutes. They came back to the undertaker and told him they wanted the president shipped home. The undertaker was puzzled and asked, 'Why would you spend $50,000 to ship him home, when it would be wonderful to be buried here, in the Holy Land, and you would spend only $100?' The American diplomats replied, 'A long time ago a man died here, was buried here, and three days later he rose from the dead. We just can't take that risk.' Boom! Boom! @elle I'm very interested in what YOU have to say. I love opinion but a I said I limit my MSM reading otherwise it can get oppressive. You can't read it all...life's too short. I'm sorry if you found my response lacking.
  7. 1 point
    Ah! I misunderstood the nature of your posts @dmedin, seemed like you were negatively disposed. All I can say is it is easy enough to get the basics and then expand into the more complex structures but it take a lot longer to practice it, make mistakes and learn from experience. Even following someone is not a solution as even professionals get it wrong from time to time, actually quite a lot. Best way is to post your analysis maybe and ask for a critique (from fellow EWT analysts not naysayers, they will sap your mojo if you let them).
  8. 1 point
    Why? Don't like it don't watch it. Sorry to sound harsh but there are alot of opinions out there. Find another site. I personally like Zero Hedge, Most other's don't for example.
  9. 1 point
    Well, looks like a good idea to short down to 639 👍
  10. 1 point
    @dmedin, good question, thanks for that. I do use candle patterns to some extent but only as corroboration. For example, after a major turn I expect a small scale 1-2 retrace before the meat of the first big move (a wave 3). I look for the first top and turn and label it wave 1 (the brown label in my previous chart). The candle patter is bearish as you suggest and there was NMD on the 1H chart. But I do not swing trade such small moves. I am a longer term trader not a day trader. If I was the latter I might seek to go Short there yes but my strategy is to wait for the retrace and go Long, which is what I did. If I am right, and I have not been for ages on this market, then I will get a long and strong breakout rally that is what I am chasing. An alternative approach would be to wait for the next breakout above the wave 1 resistance level and/or a breakout from a shorter term channel (see y 1H chart below) and/or a breakout of the weekly channel line. All depends on your strategy and attitude to risk.
  11. 1 point
    Thanks Mercury fully get that. On topic again. This is what the fuss is about. Inverted yield curves. As for choice of colour ...take your pick. Mine's blue but even that is very close now. Pretty easy to see why this has been regarded as a reliable indicator. The grey vertical bars are recessions. Hope it helps.
  12. 1 point
    I heard something similar @cryptotrader, couched in terms of not calculating risk properly and pricing it appropriately; disaster waiting to happen. @dmedin, scary as it is my personal conclusion is that the scenario you paint is an inevitable conclusions of the massive debt fueled expansion since Bretton Woods was revoked by Nixon in the early 70s. It will not be because of Trump or Brexit of Hong Kong or the Yellow Vests or any one thing (these are just symptoms) but a natural conclusion of the longest expansion cycle in modern history. The system doesn't work. It needs a reset. Alas we will have to suffer before we get it I think... As someone who came up during the last major recession (not 2007 that was just a blip by comparison, no I mean the late 80s through to mid 90s) I have some knowledge of what hard times are. I was also a kid during the 70s oil shocks and that was no picnic either. Since then though we have been in good times. When the music stops it will be truly awful, that is why I am no longer invested in the stock markets. Cash and bullion only. For those us older than 30 it makes no sense to hold on at such a top. Unless you believe this time it is different...
  13. 1 point
    Question, is that specifically referring to the turning point, or the 'technical' recession value after the technical 20% drop? Arguably the only 'data' there is on the success of trading strategies is to buy a low cost diversified index tracker and compound your divs. Trading is about the intellectual stimulus about beating the market.
  14. 1 point
    Yeah I also don't see it @dmedin, unless you were reacting to his apparent minimisation of a no deal Brexit ("entrepreneurs will just get on with it")? As an entrepreneur myself I agree with his sentiment, business people want a resolution now please, one way or another. Democrats want an exit because that is what was voted for, regardless of how we voted ourselves, and that still matters in a true democracy. BTW the Lib Dems should change their name as well as their leader because there is nothing democratic about their policy on seeking to ignore the referendum result; Liberal Eurocrats maybe? 😉. I am convinced though that we will look back and be thankful to those who voted to get us out of the EU, that thing is gonna implode and have to be rebuilt and the Euro is the think that will do it, bringing it back to trading... Anyway, in terms of the economic points, he does come across as exasperated with central banks and I think many people are. Both CBs and politicians are looking for a way out, a way to keep the gravy train on the tracks. The reality is that the only way out is to let it crash and reset. As turkeys don't vote for Christmas, CBs and politicians will do "whatever it takes" to fight this, at least until they can get off the stage so it doesn't happen on their watch (Yellan did, Draghi did, looks like Carney is looking for an exit door...) but they are rapidly running out of road. The solutions proposed in other interviews are the stuff of fiction and this guy hasn't proposed any solutions really, just commented on why the ones being proposed are bad, because there aren't any credible solutions. Many the true source of his exasperation is that reality? When you find yourself at the end of a cul de sac what do you do? Obvious in't! Even if something nasty is waiting for you at the other end it is better to run at it than cringe at the dead end, which is what we have been doing. Let's just get on with it...
  15. 1 point
    Mercury, of course, how you label your wave counts is entirely up to you. Corrective waves (according to EWT) are in the following form: ZigZags, Flats (Regular & Expanded) & Triangles. Complicated corrections are usually a combination. A common one is a double Zig-Zag. Triangles can often found in wave 4 or B but never wave 2. Motive waves are usually pretty simple to spot even for a novice. The problem always occur with corrections in my experience. Knowing the substructure count is critical in that respect. ZigZag (5-3-5), Flat (3-3-5), Triangle (3-3-3-3-3). There is often an alternative count (although one will always be preferred) and only subsequent price action reveals which is correct. There are a few rules, but really not many, and some guidelines. With respect Mercury there is no rule nor guideline that I have ever seen that says "the move does not penetrate above the previous high" for a corrective wave!! For those that don't have the time nor inclination you can subscribe to various services. In the hands of an expert, when combined with Fibonacci ratios, trend lines and sentiment indicators it is, IMHO, a powerful tool.
  16. 1 point
    A bearish engulfing pattern appears on Dow daily chart and have bounced off 20EMA.
  17. 1 point
    Not sure what you have in mind with that remark.Unless you know of a more powerful force than that unleashed by QE 1,2 &3? As for drug replacements I'd refer you to the on going antibiotic concerns.
  18. 1 point
    Recent attention to a looming recession has come about due yield spreads turning negative - see FRED. 2yr v 10yr seems to be preferred. It's been a pretty good indicator in the past and for those that say "it's different this time" - I doubt it. Average time from inversion to recession is quoted at 17 months. If that's right then it puts it late 2020 possibly early 21. We now have the longest bull market ever recorded and it's been driven by massive injections from the central bank needle. Drugs work until they don't. This fits with my motto "It doesn't matter.....until it does!" Remember this bull, rising since the GFC, has risen primarily on "bad" news ( i.e.the needles comin'). Any hint it will be withdrawn is met with the screaming abdabs. It's effectiveness is diminished after each fresh dose. You need more and more to achieve the desired effect. The US having the least smelling pile, now has rates at 2%. It's reckoned you need 3% -4% minimum to fight a recession and why, ideally, the Fed wants it higher. The firepower for easing in that situation isn't there. So more Quantative it is. Bull markets die on euphoria. It doesn't feel quite like that yet so I'd say we're in a wave 4 which will be exited on the next QE dose. The Fed will probably paint itself into a corner and be unable to fight the next recession with rate cuts when it comes. All boats (equity and bonds) rose on this last tide so expect the opposite by which time all thought of central banks being the great panacea will have evaporated.
  19. 1 point
    Patience was the name of the game on FX of late, in fact for the past year for me as I sought the retrace rally I have been expecting. Each time I tried for it the market reversed and either stopped me out for zero or little loss or I took some profits to keep things ticking over. My latest attempt was at the beginning of August (I posted on this previously), where I took a preemptive Long on a bounce off a lower channel line with decent PMD on the 1H chart, with stops very close so small exposure. When the market moved away sharply I was able to add on the next small 1- 2 retrace and then I sat back and waited with positions protected at break even. I expected the market to rally and then come back down to retest support levels. Initially I was focused on the Fib 62% level at the channel breakout level and price held up there for a short while but I was not satisfied with the wave C EWT count so I thought it might be a small 3-4, which it seems like it was. Also there was no PMD at the turn so all-in-all insufficient signals for me to even take a flyer. Given the past price action record on this pair a further retrace to the Fib 76/78% or even lower was likely. And that is what we got. Price moved smartly down to that support level today and then rallied out of the zone hard, where I took some additive Longs on PMD. If this set up holds then I would expect a small 1-2 retrace back down before a much harder rally. With GBP and AUD also looking more perky and US large caps apparently rediscovering their pep this could be the beginning of a decent anti USD move.
  20. 1 point
    Below gives a snapshot answer to recession worries. Due to the recent trade war events, Goldman now estimates a cumulative drag on GDP of 0.6%, including a 0.2% drag from the latest escalation. You can also read more about Goldman Sachs slashing US GDP growth forecast as US-China trade war continues here.
  21. 1 point
    Interesting analysis @cryptotrader but not quite sure what to make of it. The individual commodity patterns are not moving together, sometime Oil peaks around the aggregate top and sometimes it is something else. I am not convinced that all commodities move alike, I think agri and livestock has very different drivers to base metals and Oil. Also looks like they have lumped precious metals in with base metals, which is not correct in my opinion as PMs are a separate category (Silver is constantly argued on that, is it a precious metal or a poor industrial metal? The price charts say PM so that's that for me). I can't speak for agri and livestock, I only know that things like coffee and rubber are too cheap for farmers to earn sufficient income to keep them in the business. Others may wish to chip in on the discussion on agri etc, but to me Oil does appear to be bearish, although there is a case for a short bearish phase followed by a strong rally (See chart below). I have previously shared my bullish stance and analysis on PMs so won't reprice that again here. Copper is an interesting one. I am seeing a bearish phase in progress and it could breakout of of long term support into a massive deflationary bear move, which would align with a major deflationary recession. Alternatively, if the recession (which is in my view a certainty, just a question of when the markets crash in recognition of the fact we are already there) is mostly a financial one (i.e. Central bank policy and Fiat money printing driven) then we may get a flight to safe haven of "real things", in which case it will not just be precious metals that appear precious. This will be a hoarding mentality that could also drag other necessary commodities like agri up too. In the end I prefer to look at each market and decide on its intrinsic merits rather than trust to notions of commodities as having a group effect.