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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/11/19 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    wtf, I was wondering why my alarms were going mad > Michael Hewson @mhewson_CMC China Ministry - China and US have agreed to lift tariffs as deal progresses. Amount of tariff relief in phase 1 depends on content.. Equity futures rising. 7:26am · 7 Nov 2019 · TweetDeck
  2. 1 point
  3. 1 point
    No joy on that first level so I return to an alternative set up that looks at the Fib 62% level, also the breakout from the daily chart trend line, as the next likely level for a turn. Note that in this set up the weekly trend line/channel line has not yet been broken so the risk of yet another lower low is there. So I was wrong on this one, got stopped out for a small loss and wrong on stocks with a similar result but my glass is more than half full as I am very well placed Short on Gold/Silver. In the end I only needed 1 to break for me, that's trading the turns.
  4. 1 point
    Just saw your post @dmedin. I would tend to agree although conventional chartist wisdom simply has it that you trade the breakout whichever way it goes. The hard part is recognising and avoiding or fading a fakeout. The principle you are referring to is partly in play here as the consolidation pattern I drew was part of the counter trend move so in fact the breakout was in line with the current trend (i.e. a counter trend move). There are some people who see this as a trend change rather than a counter trend move that will see gold/silver below their 2015/16 lows, so who knows on that score. For the principle of buy the dips/buy the consolidation breakouts on a bull rally in Gold/Silver to hold true I think we would need to see a turn around the levels I have indicated and fast rally past the recent highs. Then and only then will we truly be in a long term bull market for precious metals. However, from a fundamentals perspective, I really believe we need to see a breakdown in the stocks bull plus inflation fears and chaotic interest rates environment, the latter of which could come about with the Fed dropping to zero or below and the bond market cracking (i.e. increasing bond yield curves). I might also expect USD to go into a massive rally in a flight to safety. Plenty of signals to watch for...
  5. 1 point
    Looks like a consolidation pattern breakout to the down side to me. If all goes according to plan the next stop is 1360ish on gold, maybe 1500 on Silver. Will likely get some form of half way mini consolidation along the way. Looks like this move is getting some sentiment backing from stocks goosing and USD strength, perfect!
  6. 1 point
    First target of 11060 achieved with a bounce and rally. Will this stick or will we see a the lower target (11,000) hit? Technicals support a rally here so it is a clear possibility but another leg down is also still possible. Break of the recent pair of tops around 11,180 would seem to be critical. I am Long off the turn with close stops just below the turn, let's see...
  7. 1 point
    MMT is coming, the US dollar is here to stay, and “value” investing is dead: an interview with Dylan Grice By: John Stepek07/11/2019 https://moneyweek.com/517760/mmt-is-coming-the-us-dollar-is-here-to-stay-and-value-investing-is-dead-an-interview-with-dylan-grice/
  8. 1 point
    This is what ING have published (below): Coffee prices: Arabica coffee prices have strengthened to a three-month high of US$1.04/lb as supplies from major exporting countries remained soft in October following a 3% drop in global coffee exports in September. Data released up until now shows that coffee shipments from Brazil dropped 4% year-on-year to 3.15m bags in October, while coffee exports from Honduras were down 12% YoY to 88.7k bags for the month. There are concerns over dryness in some parts of Brazil, whilst producers have reportedly been holding onto inventories in the low price environment.
  9. 1 point
    I thought the balance of probability is in favour of the prior trend when it comes to consolidation patterns?
  10. 1 point
    Hi, the SA40 is somewhat out of sync with the other main indices and although a US rate cut should boost the US indices and therefore have a knockon affect for others it's difficult to know how much of the expected cut has already been priced in as there is 97% expectancy of a 25 bp cut today (2% > 1.75%). On a confirmed rate cut I would still look for a triangle break to the up side and think to enter after a daily close above the line on next day continuation.
  11. 1 point
    Excellent video on the development and essence of MMT in this interview with Warren Mosler, reposted from another thread.
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