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Showing content with the highest reputation on 13/01/20 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    I can see what your saying but think you may be over estimating the sophistication of the average retail client. The SSI figures are for clients with open long or short positions so covering to get out of a long just removes the long and doesn't add to the short side. Any system that works for you is valid and I wouldn't knock it but your average retail punter has little experience and only lasts about 6 months, they always seems intent on basically trying to call tops and bottoms which they generally don't have the skill or experience to do. So they just keep reloading after each stop out til the account is gone. They would be far better concentrating on learning a simple trend following strategy to begin with. As I inferred earlier, every time there is a single red daily candle on the Dow or S&P everyone falls over themselves to declare 'this is it' the top is finally in, get short. After years and years of it it really starts to grate, particularly with so many noobs so keen to just jump straight in on any shout out.
  2. 2 points
    all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles.... I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!! My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????
  3. 2 points
    the question is though when a market is trending up why is everyone so keen to get short? It's some sort of mental derangement. This from the SSI thread where I was making this same point a while back. Price goes up and so retail goes short, price goes down so retail go long, price goes back up again and short they go. What is this strategy called? The 'empty your account in the fastest possible way' strategy. 🥳
  4. 2 points
    Friday turned out to be a day for profit taking after a strong week and now seeing price moving back up towards the highs. Friday's market profile showed the POC was stable and did not migrate lower through the day which would have been the case if there was new money selling. Plenty of people over the weekend telling us on SM and forums that this was it (again), the market is about to dive lower. These guys are always wrong more often than they are right. The truth is that no one can predict the future so why do they even bother, something internal drives them to it and your best bet is to completely ignore all of it. The charts will tell you exactly what's happening, regularly review the charts from monthly down to H1, see what's really happening and look to tag along, don't bother trying to second guess and front run, there is no need.
  5. 1 point
    Also check this thread;
  6. 1 point
    GOOD, glad to hear it.
  7. 1 point
    Thanks for your post. If you're looking to reopen an account it would be quicker to give us a call as well as email to get this looked into straight away. All the best
  8. 1 point
    Not sure what your point is? Are you suggesting that traders have a moral imperative to support the never ending bull market to stave off a recession that will cost people their jobs?
  9. 1 point
    The bad news coming think and fast and this despite the Christmas busy period... Given my personal experience of excessive pre Christmas sales I wait with baited breath for the Christmas period retail figures... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51089118 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51090008 This last one is quite illustrative of the structural issues connecting local government, property owners and tenant businesses. This is a perfect storm or overvaluation of property leading to excessive rates and rents and in an environment where the consumer is both shopping more online and reducing their spending... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51089167
  10. 1 point
    Just wanted to keep you in the loop for announcements over the next few days if you trade off the back of news or if you have TA running on Cable. This is all working off GMT time:
  11. 1 point
    Bitcoin might well be looking to retest that neckline and/or the weekly chart channel line. Fib 62% (7470) looks favourite to a bullish turn if we do get a bearish move on this.
  12. 1 point
    Hello, I have found Rayner Teo's Free PDF books on Trend Following excellent and they are Genuinely Free. https://www.tradingwithrayner.com
  13. 1 point
    Not about smart or stupid. It is about having a methodology you have honed over years and are comfortable with and within that rock solid rules for entering a trade and placement of stops. It is also about NOT listening to naysayers who hate anything that upsets their world view, such is their insecurity, and not following other people but rather following your own method. If your method is not working it can be because it is flawed or because the market needs to turn in your favour (i.e. timing is not yet right). Patience and discipline are the two most important aspects of financial markets trading in my opinion. Also NOT trading too many instruments at one time. You have to have focus. I may track FX and take occasional positions when the signs are good but the majority of my trading is not in FX at present because the move has not yet manifested. As regards FX, it has been in a slow declining (vs the USD) trend for the past year or more so not the best place to be either long or short, which is why I have been mostly elsewhere. What I am looking for in FX is a turn and breakout of this phase, which is looking increasingly like a contrarian reversal against USD. If this happens then there will be a bucket load of points to collect, just have to spot the breakout and get in on the trend. We are not there yet but maybe on the cusp. That's trading in a nutshell. You have to wait and wait and try things without losing much until you catch that move. Most of the big time traders say they make most of their gains on 5% of their trades! My strategy is win big lose small, the hit rate is irrelevant. BTW: when I say contrarian it is opposite to the broad market expectation and bias. Arguments for a contrarian continuation of the trend are bogus as that isn't, by definition, contrarian.
  14. 1 point
    There is no chance of that. The man is 78, has had a heart attack recently while campaigning and by American standards is a communist! Warren is more of a threat although the Dems will be hoping for Biden as he has the best chance against Trump. I don't think it will matter who is President in November...
  15. 1 point
    Yes, that and overtrading in a ranging market which is one of my biggest failings.
  16. 1 point
    They do make a fair chunk of their operating profit through royalties, but the majority still comes from online/trade sales. Although, royalties is definitely a segment that is growing for them (something they are proud of). It accounted for £6.9m of operating profit in 2017, up to £10.4m now.
  17. 1 point
    that's true enough but I'm looking generally at the 70% of IG clients short the S&P, a figure that's been fairly consistent for the whole of the last year while the S&P was up over 28%. "Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider."
  18. 1 point
    Yield curve signalling lower recession risk;
  19. 1 point
    S&P in previous incumbent presidential election years;
  20. 1 point
    I concur, obvs. It is a truism of markets that you get maximum hype, blind greed and complacency at the end of a bull run. We certainly have that in spades now, except for the COT data, which bugs me... Would like to see your analysis on a chart or too if you have time.
  21. 1 point
  22. 1 point
    oh look, that example system in the post just above that I completely made up on the spot would have given 3/3 winning trades on the current gold chart. I keep saying forget TA, it's only a guide and there's not much you need to know, only price action on appropriate chart structure can trigger a trade. You've been posting for a year and I've no idea how you trade, I think the reason for that is neither do you. Try reading and following the thread instead of wandering around doing your own thing. Decide on one time frame and on one market which to apply one entry type. Then look at building your own simple system specifically for that.
  23. 1 point
    Serious though, if you consider this from a purely stock market perspective rather than a wider economic perspective can anyone say that the stock market is performing as it was originally designed to? That is to provide capital for business expansion and a sensible returns, mostly in dividends to investors? It seems to me that it is more about Wall St. firms getting rich (not that that hasn't always been the case) and VC firms cashing in (typically on a worthless loss making proposition...). I believe it will all end very badly and hopefully we will see significant reform rather than revolution. It is already being discussed by luminaries such as Druckenmiller and Tudor Jones, who are smart enough to read the tea leaves and get on the right side of things... In the meantime, the crash, when (not if) it comes will be an opportunity for us meager retail traders. Don't even need to trade Stocks short, just invest in Gold and Silver!
  24. 1 point
    @CharlotteIG, I am glad that you are really happy that this is still being talked about. Natural Gas is one of the most difficult commodities to trade in my personal experience. It is very volatile and choppy. I am going to share below the support prices based on the 'Weekly' and 'Monthly' longer term charts for Natural Gas which are aligning nicely with the 'Daily' chart. As you can see from both charts I have included the 'red rectangle' which is in my personal opinion the price support for Natural Gas. Now of course this can change going forwards due to extreme weather conditions which were not accurately forecasted or a sudden change in supply and demand fundamentals for Natural Gas. However, if none of those things change significantly then we are looking at some strong support for Natural Gas at current price levels. So this means some severely bearish news has to be released in relation to Natural Gas for the price to go below the 'red rectangle' price zone. Otherwise we will witness consolidation and then some upside in Natural Gas prices. This could take a while as the consolidation and sideways activity may last a while until there is a significant change in the fundamentals. So the prices could decline down towards the 1700 area if things continue and then partake in range bound activity until it is ready to move upwards. I still favour a short term move upwards from current price levels before any further downside moves.
  25. 0 points
    If you are unhappy trading , the best thing to do is stop. Not everybody can trade, do something else ?
  26. 0 points
    With Spread betting forward contracts we recycle the epic used for spreadbet, whereas for cfd it's a new epic every contract which is why this happens. This is why you see historical data on spread betting (shows previous contracts) but with CFD you don't.
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