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Showing content with the highest reputation on 15/10/20 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    When was it ever not thus? They are holding cash as they sense the next down turn and realise equity is too risky. So holding 20- 30% in cash makes sense in tumultuous times. Also, how can you tax it if it is constantly on the move? Obscenely wealthy companies, individuals and families do not like paying tax as they fundamentally distrust govt (comes from bribing so many of them, I suppose). Also, holding cash means that when bargains come along, the money is there to put a down a deposit, leaving one free to borrow the rest at just over zero% interest. Win win. Nice work if you can get it.
  2. 2 points
    Guess that depends when you start with your 3-year-period I would expect something between roughly -30% and +30%. Then the problem is, where you get those £500 a month from? Don't tell me I have to get a job first in order to do that The goal should still be to make roughly 50% per month. 100k account, 50k profits. That's the gold discipline we're all aiming for
  3. 2 points
    Nobody cares, Tom. People come here to learn about trading. The vast majority of people who come here would love to see examples of others who have managed to overcome difficulties and 'trade successfully, consistently'. Have you ever been able to do this?
  4. 2 points
    Lets first see how the election goes (president and congress) before we price in future earnings "It is one way Mr. Biden hopes to reverse President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and extract money from corporations if he wins the presidency and Democrats take full control of Congress. The argument for higher corporate taxes resonates with many voters." https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-tax-plan-targets-profitable-companies-that-pay-almost-nothing-11595848477
  5. 1 point
    It's been 3 years folks. 3 years of trading and my equity curve looks less than stellar to put it mildly. Imagine 3 years of market open trading, that's approximately 3 times 253 trading days per year times 1h of trading + 0.5h of trading preparation. Total: 1139h (or 47 days non-stop) In short, a lot of time invested. If I learned to play piano in the same time, I would probably fill big concert halls by now. Anyway, what I'm thinking is, as trading purely based of technical analysis doesn't seem to work out exactly as I want it to, I'm thinking about looking at Fundamentals. The problem with fundamentals in trading is: Only because a company is total **** and their balance sheet is total **** and their fundamental KPIs are total ****, that doesn't prevent the share price of this very company going to the moon first, before it comes crashing down to 0. So where do you place your short order in that case? In trading being right is almost useless if you're not right at the right time. Read that again That's why technical trading always made more sense to me. There in theory it doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, cause all you do is riding the momentum/sell-off until it reverses. In, out, profit So, anyone in here, trading fundamentals? If so, what's your approach? I'm thinking essentially having my spread-bet account as a short only while my regular ISA/Share Dealing is my long only. So when I'm analysing a ticker it either is a buy, gets on my watchlist for ISA/Share Dealing or it is a sell, then goes onto my watchlist for SB. Or it is neither nor, then just drop it. What do you think?
  6. 1 point
    Keep being told that there are trillions of dollars sloshing around looking for yield. Which means 'investors' already have lots of money. They're just keeping it in cash. Any suggestion of taxing some of their trillions and using it to stimulate aggregate demand is billed as 'raiding' or 'stealing' from the wealthy. So we know who is in control of the system.
  7. 1 point
    Fair point Dmedin. I was speaking from a market perspective. Stimulus is direct q/e, without the middleman. Yes the people of the US really need it now, but this is an election year and this is politics, we all are aware that politicians rarely give a **** about actual normal people, so it should be of little surprise they are want to be forthcoming with the folding green stuff (or credits in modern vernacular) needed by all of those actual voters and non voters. It is a game of spite and malice played with real people's lives. In truth, the markets don't give a **** about people's lives, it is not the function of a market to actually give a ****, that should be the job of elected politicians who are supposed to have a mandate to act for the people they represent. I know, pure fantasy....
  8. 1 point
    That's a very peculiar way of saying that the government needs to help millions of jobless people with no savings who are on the brink of homelessness.
  9. 1 point
    Like the alternative position. By markets I refer to the Dow which (to my mind) has looked over valued when it hit 27750 last year. Why overvalued? By historic measures such as P/e and EBITA. Really showing my age ,I know. Agree this crisis has precipitated the convergence of pre existing tech into a new work dynamic and it is understandable that people and companies want a piece of it. However, one should examine the financials and bottom line. For example has Apple's profit increased commensurate with its share price over the last year? Or Facebooks? Or Tesla? Tesla being a good case in point. Tesla's profit are contingent on govt largesse, in the form of green subsidy per vehicle. Share price has increased 400%+ in 10 months, but have profits? Is Tesla the only manufacturer of EVs? Will it continue to maintain market dominance? How reliant is Tesla on Elon Musk? Is Tesla truly disruptive tech? I agree Tech and Data will be the main economic drivers of value going forward. But also suspect their market dominance will be tempered by regulation, both in the USA and abroad. This will affect profits as the FANGs become viewed more as utilities then innovative tech firms. It is entirely feasible the markets will push on as equity values have historically done, especially so in the last decade. My point was the markets and especially the Dow have over compensated, as exchanges generally do, and such is the case now. In a virus free environment, with near full employment , my argument loses gravitas, but I tend to try and look objectively at the present. The present market conditions suggest the need for stimulus to keep the engine of commerce moving and stimulus is not what it is getting. Hence the loss of confidence and fall in price of the Dow.
  10. 1 point
    Have you worked out what your returns would be if you put e.g. £500 a month into an S&P 500 ETF over a three-year period? I bet it would be a far better result than 99.9% of 'traders' activity over the same period
  11. 1 point
    Maybe more time for daytrading (US and Asia markets) in France? " Paris curfew ordered amid massive surge in coronavirus cases, Macron says France recorded more than 22,000 cases on Wednesday – more than three-times peak of first wave in April" " The curfew will last from 9pm until 6am and will come into force at midnight on Saturday. Anyone breaking the curfew will face a fine of €135 euros, which will rise for repeat offences. " https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/paris-curfew-coronavirus-france-latest-cases-macron-b1041285.html
  12. 1 point
    That's true of a lot of them. Don't believe what the media tells you, though. A lot of these people, you'll find, had rough upbringings and lacked opportunities in life. The kind of opportunities that the likes of Boris Johnson took for granted. A lot of them are actually fundamentally good people. Some of them even work hard and do indispensable jobs. That's more than can be said for those obnoxious c&nts in the City of London. We all know that they are fraudsters and swindlers, defend their rich masters, consider their clients stupid and even utterly despise one another. They lead unfulfilling lives, and are constantly competing with each other, backstabbing and constantly attacked by feelings of guilt and jealousy. I'm tempted to think that Tories aren't even human.
  13. 1 point
    Are you drunk again? Get some sleep boy.
  14. 1 point
    Apparently the 'free markets' need lots of free money from government to keep them going. Your average human being? They can just muddle on with redundancy and mounting bills. Who cares about human beings?
  15. 1 point
    good point - mainstream narrative recently seems to be that market expects tax hikes later, stimulus first... I believe the technology convergence/growth story (well described in "The Future is Faster Than You Think", Diamandis/Kotler) dominates both, though, and I can't see Biden/Congress damaging US Tech dominance too much... (they're needed to stay ahead of China..) however I of course agree these (taxes, also monopoly issues...) are factors potentially creating significant volatility
  16. 1 point
    Interesting post! I tend to agree with you, but let me just play the advocatus diabolo here for the sake of progressing the discussion: Which market are you referring yo - NYFANG +MSFT (and maybe TAN and UBER etc.) or the rest of the world? Define overvalued. Financial conditions are unprecedentedly easy across the globe - so what to compare current levels of P/E, EV/EBITDA etc. with? To me this market seemed overvalued since 2018 the latest... The alternative narrative is, that what's going on is simply everyone trying to get a piece of ownership in an obvious future pie, to be grown by a massive change of our way of life due to convergence of various fast-progressing technologies. Wouldn't be the first time.... The stimulus theme is certainly more than a side show, and accelerated dynamics, but it didn't create the underlying trend. Hence its absence alone would not end it. negative earnings for a while would, eventually, though, I guess... how much do Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Tesla earnings depend on stimulus? (genuine question - I have no idea)
  17. 1 point
    Hi, when you download MT4 from Metaquotes the first thing it says is that there is a newer version update, if you click yes it will update to MT5 instead of MT4. Not sure if you can use the very useful IG 'apps pack' on the MetaQ version.
  18. 0 points
    Oh look, an angry little retarded Swedish monkey babbling away. How cute.
  19. 0 points
    Aww naw, Shtevveh Munch-keen shez naw maw shteem-you-lush 😢 https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-ends-down-after-mnuchin-dims-stimulus-hopes-idUSKBN26Z1FU
  20. 0 points
    Will the Aussie index make a comeback tonight? 71% of retail punters are short, not that that means anything particularly.