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Showing content with the highest reputation since 21/12/18 in Posts

  1. 3 points
    I wanted to share some simple and basic 'Fundamental Analysis' with regards to my 'Long' Gold and Silver trades and 'Short' S&P 500 trade. The Gold price is continuing to rise as equities around the world are declining. Gold is priced in USD and US Equities are in 'bear market' territory. US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 base points. There are a lot of 'risks' at the moment in terms of equities declining, Trump's Trade War with specifically China and monetary policy. These conditions are favourable for Gold going forwards. For those who may not be familiar let me explain when a market is in 'bear market' territory. It is when a market has declining by 20% or more from its highs. The biggest worry is any 'recessionary impact' that may come going forwards. A lot of people have obtained cheap credit whilst interest rates have been at all time lows. If interest rates begin to increase then if these people have not managed their risk properly then they could be in trouble as their repayments begin to increase. Business are effected by interest rate increases too so as their loan repayments increase their costs increase which could lead to job cuts. On top of this major technology stocks have entered into a 'Death Cross' recently. Now for those not familiar with what the 'Death Cross' actually means then it is when a share's 50 day moving average goes below its 200 day moving average. This tends to signal a change in trend from upwards to downwards. I think it could take months or at least the first quarter of 2019 for this bear market to try and bottom if not longer. I have a 'feeling' that this is going to be a enormous downtrend and those who do not short such opportunities are going to miss some exceptional opportunities. These are just my personal thoughts based on my 'gut' and 'instincts'. So please do not take this as 100% likely or it is given. I could just as easily be wrong. Now in the past on IG Community traders have posted many threads and posts about 'Buy the Dips'. I would absolutely not buy the dips right now on such indices trending strongly downwards. What I would be looking to do is 'Sell The Rips'. This is the opposite of the buy the dips. During any prices rises during a downtrend one adds to their position and adds to their short position. It is being reported that indications are the more declines are likely to be seen in the weeks and months ahead. It seems the major indexes are producing new lows which gives me the impression that the worst is still to come. What makes it difficult for us traders is that volatility is increasing. This is great for day traders and shorter term traders but for anyone who holds long positions it becomes difficult with the risk of stop losses getting executed. The dynamics of the current scenario is fascinating. I never thought I would be 'Long' Gold and yet I am. Risk tolerance is declining and along with it the markets are declining. Now one could infer that the price action of Gold is making it look like a potential safe haven for investors. There is the potential of a weaker dollar which could lead to higher Gold prices. I have openly stated I am not a fan of Gold. However, I saw an opportunity to get in early on what seems to be a trending upwards movement based on price action. We have the US Government shutdown which seems to be becoming a regular occurrence. For me this creates uncertainty in the market which is going to bad for stock markets and positive for the likes of Gold. When one adds the US Monetary Policy into the mix then one can see why things are unravelling the way they are.
  2. 2 points
    The US 500 which is the (S&P 500) is an attractive potential shorting opportunity. As many of you know I like to be as open and transparent as possible. I like to keep things simple and really add significant value to the IG Community with real live trades. I have today opened a short position on the US 500 at 2506.91 via IG's Spread Betting platform. I should get daily credit interest as well - 😉 Why did I pick this to short ahead of the other indices? Well first of all it has lower margin requirements than other indices. This is extremely important when one is adding to short positions as the price continues to move downwards thus trying to maximise profits. Also the trends seem similar when comparing it to the Dow so why use up extra capital on margin requirements? Again I am sharing some of my live trades with the IG Community and will share my views, thinking and rationale behind any decisions. I will not hide behind complex analysis and complex theory that many may find difficult to follow or understand.
  3. 2 points
    @TrendFollower Not sure if it helps, but recently IG added 2 volume-based indicators to their offering: Volume-Weighted Moving Average and Ease of Movement. Maybe that covers your strategy?
  4. 2 points
    The FT have recently posted a great article which I tried to share to friends but you needed to have subscription. Given its the last hour of work and it's quiet as hell I thought I may as well give a synopsis of the major events which have happened this year. which ones do you remember? which ones did you trade? ...and what are the expectations for next year? so without further a do The beginning of the year started with a solid rally in equities as Trumps reduced taxation and corporate freedom pushed markets 3% higher in January. This was the perfect set up to the crash which was inevitably looming ... Who remembers the VIX catostrophy which came on the back of Bond market damage on equities, great figures from average US earnings, and a new fear of inflationary measures by the Fed? XIV - the inverse vix - went crazy and lost a significant proportion of its value overnight. This finally collapsed in Feb on the 5th as all other institutions rushed to hedge their exposure. Cambridge Analytica was the big one in March with Facebook kicking off the FAANG draw down. This not only dented Facebook but fears over increased regulation for techies kicked the sector down a notch. Dollar has been having a weird year, especially during the first half of the year, smattered by trade war talks, April was the start of the rally. Dolar basket saw an 8% rally between April and mid-August prompting a JP analyst to comment that it was the "most notable phenomenon" of the year. Turkey melt down - A word of warning to all country leaders (especially the Turkish). Do NOT say that interest rates are ""the mother of all evil". Unless you want your whole country to experience a currency crisis. Italian bond yields went crazy in 2018 especially after late May after the two populist parties drew power via a coalition after the March elections . EM focus continued with the Argentinian emergency which was the most notable S.American event with interest rates lifted from 45 to 60% in August. Peso dropped 12% in a single day. October was bond season- and also significant losses in the S&P. Powells statement that rates were far from neutral led to increased expectations of 3 rate rises before the end of year. Oil, whilst original expected to (at least by some) go to 100 bucks was cut short after the 86 dollar mark was hit. US oil output, Iranian production, weakening demand... these all hit the industry and has resulted in a significant pull back. Finally pulling into December the crypto fall of the previous 12 months has started to see signs of life. Nothing can really dent the 80% + sell off over the last 12 months ... but some recent vol moves in late December are giving the hopeful signs of life. there we go - it's now 5pm and home time for me. Merry Christmas all. Looking forward to some discussion and chat towards the end of the week. Article for Ref: https://www.ft.com/content/5c7f9262-0364-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3
  5. 2 points
    @Exhale_Trading, yes Google Finance used to offer this but do not anymore. @igungho, You may want to consider the following (cannot guarantee that they will still work) for the US stock market. Yahoo Finance Alpha Vantage IEX Finam Stooq You may also want to consider the following for the US markets: NetFonds Duckascopy The above are all free options which I assumed you were asking about. You may also wish to consider the following: http://eoddata.com/Projects/Intraday.aspx http://www.kibot.com https://www.quantstart.com/articles/Downloading-Historical-Intraday-US-Equities-From-DTN-IQFeed-with-Python https://www.tickdata.com/equity-data/
  6. 2 points
    Recently we have touched on an interesting and oft little know resource that technical and fundamentals traders alike leverage. The US Commodity and Futures Trading Commission issues the positions "commitments" of traders on the exchanges covering a wide range of markets (see link below). https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm Now traders will use this in different ways, as with everything in trading there are likely to be several different approached. Here is how I use COT data within my trading methodology. Note that I am a long term swing traders so I am looking for major trend changes to enter high probability/low exposure positions. Note also that a big part of this strategy for anyone doing it is to be contrarian when it makes sense (i.e. bet against the herd at the end of the trend as they pill over the cliff!). I am using Gold to illustrate this as I have been actively using it to inform my Gold trading, especially when I went Long in Sept & Nov 2018 (see my Gold and Silver Rally thread for the history on that one if you are interested) The bottom line on this is quite simple. When the the Non Commercials are heavily net one way or the other, based on historical swings and peaks and this occurs where my technical analysis is showing a turn I get ready to go the opposite way. most of these Non Commercials are trend followers and have to be in the market, where as retail traders can sit it out and wait, this is our one big advantage. The chart below shows annotations of where the Non commercials have been peak Long when the market turns down and vice versa. Food for thought. PS I use the combined Futures and Options data set.
  7. 2 points
    @Nelsy-Boy, In my experience if the price of an asset moves with low volume then it is a 'weaker move' against when the price of an asset moves on high volume which to me represents a 'stronger move'. The volume tends to go with the trend. To me it shows how much conviction traders have on the trend in play. A word of caution here @Nelsy-Boy. Volume can be manipulated to make it look like there is higher volume to attract trades. I am not sure if you have come across the Volume Price Trend (VPT) Indicator? It shows the strength of the price change and the price direction of the asset in question. I am sure if you look this up then you will find plenty of material on this. I personally tend to look for an increase in volume when trying to identify trends both on the upwards and downwards. If I see volume increasing as the price is increasing / decreasing then it is telling me that the trend is getting stronger. There are other indicators to consider but this is just one of many that can go into the 'basket' before making a final assessment / conclusion on whether the trend is strong enough to trade. So to answer your question, in my personal opinion, more times than not if the price moves a big chunk higher with little volume then this is not as positive as if the price moved with higher volume. So to summarise below: Price moves upwards / downwards on low volume = Potential weaker move / trend Price moves upwards / downwards on higher volume = Potential stronger move / trend
  8. 2 points
    So the market is closed and my position is open. At one stage yesterday evening I was up 100 points. I finished being up 87 points. I opened this trade on Thursday so it has been open only for two days but an excellent start.
  9. 2 points
    @tomcagsey, No problem. Ok at least we are clear that you are looking at investing to create long term wealth. This forms the 'foundation' of my own personal investment portfolio. I will talk about what I do personally and then you can decide how you wish to proceed. That will be your decision. First of all one must have an investment plan with a clear strategy they intend to execute to fulfil their aims and objectives. I invest in 20 different investment funds every month via direct debit. I am using a 'Cost-Pound Averaging' strategy. However, when there are any major dips, corrections, reversals, etc. I invest lump sums into these funds to assist in producing better returns for me when the funds begin to recover. I will never invest lump sums unless there is a major drop otherwise I will merely continue investing every month. I have being using this strategy for many years now and it has worked a treat and nearly every year I am in double digit annualised returns. My investment fund portfolio has never overall been in a loss since inception. It has always been in profit by using this strategy. Now that is not to say that you must follow my strategy. I am merely presenting what I actually do. I always think one must learn to walk before they can run. If you are new to investing then investing in funds, OEICS and investment trusts is going to be better than starting to invest in individual shares. That will come later. Start to build an investment portfolio. If you are young then you can invest in 'capital growth' funds. If you are approaching retirement then you may want to consider 'income' funds. I intend to switch from capital growth funds to income funds when I am more nearer to retirement. I am no anywhere near that stage yet! In terms of research this is down to what 'themes' and 'countries' you think will be successful. So for example, I am investing in Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Robotics funds. That is a theme. I am also investing in Frontier Market, Emerging Market, Micro Cap, Small Cap and various other funds. I am a high risk capital growth investor so the choice of my funds reflect my risk profile and tolerance as an investor. If you wish to build an income fund portfolio or create your own income portfolio by investing in stocks directly based on yield and income generated then that would be different to what I do. Having an interest and awareness of 'Economics' I find helps. Conducting research, reading material that can give you the knowledge to make effective investment decisions is very important. I believe in the long term 'India' growth story. Therefore, I invest in a India fund. Now there will be many funds that invest in India and you have to pick the one that you think based on costs and performance to date will perform the best going forwards. What is their asset allocation? Which companies is the fund investing in? Why have other funds outperformed a particular one you are looking at? What are the economic conditions in the country you are looking at investing in? This is just an example. You will need to carry out plenty of reading and conduct lots of research on the different types of funds available. Which investment themes do you understand more? Do you have any expertise in a particular theme? What are you views on the US economy? How do you think the UK economy will do after Brexit? What is your understanding of the potential of Asia? Do you understand the difference between investing in large cap funds over mid cap and small cap funds? What about micro cap funds? It will be a long journey with plenty of hard work but it will be worth it if you begin to create long term wealth for yourself and your family of course.
  10. 1 point
    this is a tax question. For presenting to the TAX department I want to get a 'TAX statement' showing total profit/loss. How can I get this statement?
  11. 1 point
    ESMA admits more retail traders lost money after the introduction of the leverage cap than before, so the exact opposite of the primary intended effect. But not to worry, we're fine says ESMA. https://www.leaprate.com/forex/regulations/esma-admits-more-retail-cfd-traders-lost-money-after-leverage-cap/
  12. 1 point
    Natural Gas is still continuing its downward move. I think it was @Nelsy-Boy who asked why I entered at 4100 level. Why not? It met the criteria of my indicators and signals which were inferring a downtrend in play. Also based on the parabolic move upwards prior there had to be profit taking, stop losses being triggered and short positions being opened to amplify the move downwards. I entered the short at 4100 and it is now at the time of this post 2904. Sometimes traders can over do the analysis and make a trade more complicated than it needs to be. Also traders can convince themselves not to trade based on over analysis. My experience, 'gut' and 'instincts' told me that the 'short' trade was on. I appreciate there will be many times when my 'gut' and 'instincts' will be wrong but this is where experience in monitoring price behaviour helps a lot. You get the feel of how the markets behave under certain circumstances and how trends tend to emerge. A lot of work is in the anticipation and making assumptions. You can then follow the price action to see if they confirm your assumptions. This is what I call the 'Testing' stage. This forms a very important part of my trading strategy.
  13. 1 point
    DX is the USD vs a basket of currencies shown on IG as US Dollar Basket, AKA Dollar Index (DX).
  14. 1 point
    @PipEvangelist, I trade on trends based on price action and supported by volume and other indicators. I follow 'Trend Following' principles so feel free to have a look at my previous threads and post to get a better understanding of my trading philosophy rather than me repeat it here. The only asset I have traded Intraday is Cryptocurrencies but not at the moment. I am trading them based on trends at the moment. It is important to have an awareness and understanding of the fundamentals. However I trade on price action rather than fundamentals. In my personal opinion if you are going to trade any asset whether it be Stocks, Commodities, FX, etc. then you must have a trading plan and a clear trading strategy which leads you to a trading system. This will confirm your trading philosophy. This may sound cheesy but, "Failing to Plan is a Plan to Fail".
  15. 1 point
    @elle, That is interesting the 150 EMA. Yes, I know a lot of traders who use this with great success. Moving averages tend to 'smooth' the price action data. I tend to use 20. 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. There can be false breakouts which is a risk in solely using moving averages. A lot of people applying trend following strategies tend to focus on just the price crossing the moving averages. This would be very simple and too easy. For me I look at how the moving averages line is shaping up. So for example on a long trade I want to see strong curve upwards and for a short trade I want to see the moving averages curve move strongly downwards. This is what I did on my Gold trade recently. When the 20, 50, 100 and 200 are all sloping upwards like they were in Gold it shows me that the trend is far stronger and a much more robust entry point. I must admit sometimes due to momentum indicators and wanting to get in early I don't always wait for the price to cross the 200 as there are times when I enter a lot earlier. The key is how the moving averages are sloping and more specifically which direction they are sloping. The MACD is very useful as it very useful for trend followers and to gauge momentum. I like the RSI too.
  16. 1 point
    OK @Nelsy-Boy, I don't really trade the derivative crosses much, except for EURGBP, I prefer to stay with the primary USD crosses as I believe the USD is still the main FX market driver so don't have much to offer on those trades. One thing though, FWIW, no one likes taking losses but it is a art of trading so while we don't have to be happy about it we do have to be philosophical and treat them as learning opportunities. Also depending on your attitude to stop exposure, taking a loss does not necessarily mean your overall trade idea is wrong, just too early perhaps OR it may mean you need to think about reversing your direction. All depends on your methodology of course. So net I don't worry about losses so long as I practice good money management and are seeing movements I can easily rationalise as falling within my road maps.
  17. 1 point
    Hi - the commission on options is incorporated into the spread, and there is no overnight funding. Hope this helps.
  18. 1 point
    @elle, Fair point. Do you day trade indices then? If so are you short any? Volatility can be great for 'Swing Traders'. They love it. Also day traders love it too. Sometimes positions can be open for say 30 mins and exited with a profit. May I ask what assets you do trade? Volatility provides opportunities to make bigger profits more quickly. However with this comes greater risk so risk management is crucial. One can lose capital quickly too! One key thing I have learnt over the years is to never sell in a panic because there is volatility. I accept at times deep pockets are required and any trader who does not believe this will end up exiting the position when they should not especially when trading a longer term trend. One must know what their 'Exit Plan' is and stick to their 'Trading Rules and Strategy' with discipline. If a trader has this in place then volatility should not be feared but embraced as it will provide opportunities that normally would not present themselves.
  19. 1 point
    Bad luck @fhk-uk I have suffered similarly in the past, I know how that feels. In fact this is the reason my trading methodology seeks low exposure opportunities at turning points. I have read many interviews and books by traders where they universally state that they would be richer and more successful if the scratched loss making (trades that do not follow their initial expectation) early and sought reentry later if appropriate. This has become a major element in my risk/money management. Another part of my approach, again based on similar experiences to the one you mentioned, is to be contrarian at key points so I can spot trend changes early, cash in previous trend profits to maximise returns and reverse my bias. Doesn't always work of course but I also follow the maxim, "there is always another trade" (i.e. if I am wrong I can rejoin the trend after the retrace having secured profits to leverage). This is the essence of swing trading.
  20. 1 point
    We did indeed see a short rally (A-B-C form) on the US markets but it turned out to be very shallow, ending sharply with a pin bar on the Dow and the Fib 23% (very weak rally, very Bearish form). This retrace completes a break and retest of the Ice Line support/resistance - the zone coincident with the wave 4 turn on the previous major rally - see weekly chart below to see the Ice line). It also completes a 1-5 down to wave 1 (brown) so with that and both a confirmed break of the Ice line and further lower low and a 1-2 retrace done we should see a sustained bearish move. The only thing to watch out for now is a Flag/Pennant consolidation (Daily chart level), which typically occurs at about half way along the entire move and is therefore a useful indicator of where the end of this Bearish move will occur. The Short term outlook therefore is for a continued Bear market (with only a Flag to negotiate, which should not breach the Ice Line). The Flag should give us a clue about where the move may end, there are several possibilities (marked on my Weekly Chart but we will have to monitor price action to get more clues). Medium term I will be looking for a big picture EWT 1-2 retrace, Fib 50% or 62% are favourites but we will have to wait and see where the current Bear move ends before thinking about this too much, except to be prepared for the reversal. It is easy to get drawn into a Bearish frame of mind and forget that markets move in waves or zigzags. My trading strategy: Continue to sell into any rallies (this may start to be intraday as the Bear picks up pace) and move stops to break even quickly to guard against the forthcoming consolidation phase, which may look like a rally or could be a so-called Flat (sideways price action). I do not expect it to last very long, a week or so maybe and could very well occur during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, in which case a Flat could very well emerge. Once I see the consolidation Flag complete and break lower there will be a sustained Bearish period to the end of this move, which is likely to offer very few retraces so intraday rally selling will be the mechanism to add to Shorts, again moving stops quickly as the market proceeds down. Assess for the likely end of the move and cash all Shorts below the Ice line at a minimum and potentially look to swing Long if the opportunity presents itself. A key decision will be whether to cash all Shorts, even those above the Ice line and seek to leverage profits into fresh Shorts when the retrace ends and turns back into the very big wave 3 Bear. Not sure what is best here, likely to cash some and keep a few from the very top for live leverage.
  21. 1 point
    (side note @tomcagsey - please note you need to make sure you login before you post - this way it links all the content together and notifies you of any replies. Thanks!)
  22. 1 point
    @Nelsy-Boy, A note of caution is that use 'leverage' wisely and make sure it fits with your 'risk management' strategy in your trading plan. You are right there could be a retrace and this is a risk on this trade. I think watching price action daily on an asset you are interested in trading and where you have identified a strong trend is a great learning curve. You will live and breathe the asset's price behaviour and get a very strong feeling of any sharp movements and why it is behaving the way it is. You will be able to link any fundamentals to the price movement and it will really help you tune into the potential trade.
  23. 1 point
    @Nelsy-Boy, No problems and hope I could help. Great thread. 👍
  24. 1 point
    @tomcagsey, Your first sentence states how you want to learn to 'invest' in the shares and stock market. You second sentence states you want to build your knowledge before you 'invest'. By the time you get to your third sentence you are stating you wish to acquire knowledge to become a successful 'trader'. First of all, investing and trading are different. For me investing is more about long term wealth creation whether that be for capital growth or for income. Trading for me would be a shorter time period and more speculative in nature betting on price movements in a certain direction. What you ask is a very simple question but very difficult to answer. If successful investing and trading was just about acquiring knowledge then there would be a lot of people who could merely acquire and retain knowledge and become profitable traders but it does not work like that. It is all about how much time, effort, dedication, discipline and capital (money) you want to put into this. There will be plenty of material on the Internet which you can read. There will be plenty of books you can read. Reading will be a good starting point. Acquiring knowledge is only the first step and no one can do this for you. You must read and learn yourself first. You are not a guest member so therefore one would assume that you have an account with IG and must use them to either invest or trade. You may like to begin with material on IG's website first which could be as good a starting point as any. I would not suggest you invest or trade until you really are ready and only you will decide when this is.
  25. 1 point
    If IG are not answering your questions on this then what does that tell you? This simply cannot be a priority for them. What is the solution? Switch your investments into another broker that does offer DRIP and any other things you are looking for.